Journal is indexed in following databases:
- SCOPUS
- Web of Science Core Collection - Journal Citation Reports
- EBSCOhost
- Directory of Open Access Journals
- TRID Database - Transportation Research Board
- Index Copernicus Journals Master List
- BazTech
- Google Scholar
2023 Journal Impact Factor - 0.7
2023 CiteScore - 1.4
ISSN 2083-6473
ISSN 2083-6481 (electronic version)
Editor-in-Chief
Associate Editor
Prof. Tomasz Neumann
Published by
TransNav, Faculty of Navigation
Gdynia Maritime University
3, John Paul II Avenue
81-345 Gdynia, POLAND
e-mail transnav@umg.edu.pl
Uncertainty in Analytical Collision Dynamics Model Due to Assumptions in Dynamic Parameters
1 Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
2 Maritime University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
2 Maritime University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
ABSTRACT: The collision dynamics model is a vital part in maritime risk analysis. Different models have been introduced since Minorsky first presented collision dynamics model. Lately, increased computing capacity has led to development of more sophisticated models. Although the dynamics of ship collisions have been studied and understanding on the affecting factors is increased, there are many assumptions required to complete the analysis. The uncertainty in the dynamic parameters due to assumptions is not often considered. In this paper a case study is conducted to show how input models for dynamic parameters affect the results of collision energy calculations and thus probability of an oil spill. The released deformation energy in collision is estimated by the means of the analytical collision dynamics model Zhang presented in his PhD thesis. The case study concerns the sea area between Helsinki and Tallinn where a crossing of two densely trafficked waterways is located. Actual traffic data is utilized to obtain realistic encounter scenarios by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Applicability of the compared assumptions is discussed based on the findings of the case study.
KEYWORDS: Marine Traffic, Collision Avoidance, Risk Analysis, Dynamic Parameters, Monte Carlo Simulation, Collision Dynamics Model, Analytical Model
REFERENCES
American Bureau of Shipping (ABS). 2010. Rules for Building and Classing Steel Vessels. American Bureau of Shipping. Houston, USA.
Brown A.J. 2002. Collision scenarios and probabilistic collision damage. Marine Structures, 15(4-5):335-364.
Buzek, F.J. & Holdert H.M.C. (1990). Collision Cases Judgements and Diagrams, Lloyd’s of London Press Ltd.
Cahill, R.A. 2002. Collisions and their causes, third ed. The Nautical Institute, London.
Chen, D. 2000. Simplified Collision Model (SIMCOL). M.Sc. thesis. Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USA.
COWI for the Danish Maritime Authority. (2008). Risk Analysis of Sea Traffic in the Area around Bornholm, COWI report no. P-65775-002, January 2008.
Ehlers, S. Broekhuijsen, J. Alos H.S. Biehl F. Tabri K. 2008. Simulating the collision response of ship side structures: A failure criteria benchmark study. International Shipbuilding Progress, 55:127-144.
Goerlandt, F. & Kujala, P. 2010. Traffic simulation based collision probability modeling. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, doi:10.1016/j.ress.2010.09.003
Goerlandt F, Ståhlberg K, Kujala P. 2011. Comparative study of input models for collision risk evaluation. Ocean Engineering – manuscript under review.
Hanhirova, K. 1995. External Collision Model, Safety of Passenger/RoRo Vessels, Helsinki University of Technology, Ship Laboratory
Health and Safety Executive (HSE). 2000. Collision resistance of ship-shaped structures to side impact, Health and Safety Executive, London, United Kingdom, ISBN 0-7176-1997-4
Hutchison, B.L. 1986. Barge Collisions, Rammings and Groundings – an Engineering Assessment of the Potential for Damage to Radioactive Material Transport Casks, Technical Report SAND85-7165 TTC-05212
Kujala, P. Hänninen, M. Arola, T. Ylitalo, J. 2009. Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94(8):1349-1357.
Lützen, M. 2001. Ship collision damage. PhD thesis, Technical University of Denmark.
Merrick, J.R.W. van Dorp, J.R. Harrald, J. Mazzuchi, T. Spahn, J. Grabowski, M. 2003. A systems approach to managing oil transportation risk in Prince William Sound. Systems Engineering, 3(3):128-142.
Minorsky, V.U. (1959), An Analysis of Ship Collisions with Reference to Protection of Nuclear Power Plants, Journal of Ship Research, October 1959.
Montewka, J. Hinz, T. Kujala, P. Matusiak, J. 2010. Probability modeling of vessel collision. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 95(5):573-589.
National Research Council (NRC), 2001. Environmental Performance of Tanker Designs in Collision and Grounding, Special Report 259, The National Academies Press.
Pedersen, P.T. 1995. Collision and grounding mechanics. The Danish society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers 125-157.
Pedersen, P.T. 2010. Review and application of ship collision and grounding analysis procedures. Marine Structures, 23(3):241-262.
Rawson, C. Crake, K. Brown, A. 1998. Assessing the environmental performance of tankers in accidental grounding and collision, SNAME Transactions 106:41-58.
Smailys, V. & Česnauskis, M. 2006. Estimation of expected cargo oil outflow from tanker involved in casualty. Transport – 2006, vol 21, No 4, p. 293-300.
Ståhlberg, K. 2010. Estimating deformation energy in ship-ship collisions with stochastic modeling, M.Sc. Thesis, Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Espoo, Finland
Tabri, K. Varsta, P. Matusiak, J. 2009. Numerical and experimental motion simulations of non-symmetric ship collisions. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 15(1):87-101.
Tuovinen, J. 2005. Statistical analysis of ship collisions. M.Sc. thesis. Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo, Finland.
Ulusçu, Ö.S. Özbaş, B. Altiok, T. Or, İ. 2009. Risk analysis of the vessel traffic in the strait of Istanbul. Risk Analysis, 29(10):1454-1472.
van Dorp, J.R. & Merrick, J.R.W. 2009. On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation. Annals of Operations Research, doi: 10.1007/s10479-009-0678-1.
Vaughan, H. (1977). Damage to Ships Due to Collision and Grounding, DNV Technical Report No. 77-345.
Wang, G. Spencer, J. Chen, Y. (2001). Assessment of a Ship’s Performance in Accidents, Journal of Marine Structures, 15:313-333.
Zhang, S. 1999. The mechanics of ship collisions. PhD thesis, Technical University of Denmark
Citation note:
Ståhlberg K., Goerlandt F., Montewka J., Kujala P.: Uncertainty in Analytical Collision Dynamics Model Due to Assumptions in Dynamic Parameters. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 47-54, 2012
Authors in other databases:
Kaarle Ståhlberg:
36504143700
Dg3ZclYAAAAJPentti Kujala:
Other publications of authors:
File downloaded 1159 times
