A Method for Assessing a Causation Factor for a Geometrical MDTC Model for Ship-Ship Collision Probability Estimation

ABSTRACT: In this paper a comparative method for assessing a causation factor for a geometrical model for ship-ship collision probability estimation is introduced. The results obtained from the model are compared with the results of an analysis of near-collisions based on recorded AIS data and then with the historical data on maritime accidents in the Gulf of Finland. The causation factor is obtained for three different meeting types, for a chosen location and prevailing traffic conditions there.

KEYWORDS: Anti-Collision, Collision Avoidance, Gulf of Finland, Ship Domain, Probability Estimation, Minimum Distance to Collision (MDTC), Geometrical MDTC Model, Ship-Ship Collision Probability

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Citation note:

Montewka J., Goerlandt F., Lammi H., Kujala P.: A Method for Assessing a Causation Factor for a Geometrical MDTC Model for Ship-Ship Collision Probability Estimation. TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 365-373, 2011

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