ABSTRACT: In this paper, we introduce a new risk evaluation model for evaluating the navigation safety zone for an entire ship route. This model considers a new algorithm to determine the navigational safety zone in real-time, and also takes the navigation officers' perception while navigating a ship into consideration. The risk quantification has been developed using a questionnaire and incorporated into the new model. A simulation was carried out for the Osaka bay area in order to verify the usefulness of the proposed model. A new approach was employed to monitor the level of navigation safety along a ship route. The entire ship route is divided into small sections as a gridded matrix. The level of navigation safety can be quantified by means of a safety index on the basis of the ship's navigation data within a specified distance range. The results show that the comparison between risks identified for different sections across the entire ship route is easy, which helps determine the navigational safety zone quickly. This model is expected to be able to serve as a new tool for managing safety throughout an entire ship route area in real-time in order to support the port safety authority or vessel traffic service center.

KEYWORDS: Safety at Sea, Collision Risk, Safety Management, Ship Route, Safety Level Analysis, Risk Evaluation Model, Risk Calculation

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