ABSTRACT: Over the years, many publications have been published on planning ship’s passage through the NSR and input and output data modeling. Results were not considered in terms of errors of modeled output data. Basic research for the years 2008 - 2020 was carried out in the study on opening and closing dates of ice-free transit corridor on the NSR and probable number of tariff zones where paid assistance of icebreakers would be required. Mathematical relationships of average values and probable errors of navigational, ecological and economic ship voyage performance were developed. For this purpose, partial derivatives of functions were used. The outcomes of the study have shown that changes of total average cost of vessel’s transit voyage depends mostly on number of tariff zones where assistance of icebreakers is required. But navigation with icebreakers assistance ensures smaller standard deviation of total voyage time and thus more precise scheduling of ship's voyage timetable through the NSR. The higher probability of meeting requirements set by decision-maker when planning a long-term voyage of ship, the shorter time window for meeting these requirements. Outside the favorable time window, the navigational, ecological and economic results of voyage deteriorate very quickly.

KEYWORDS: Safety at Sea, Arctic Navigation, Icebreaker, Voyage Planning, Northern Sea Route (NSR), Ship's Passage, Modeling, Ship's Voyage Timetable

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