752
To obtain
eom etric
P
, generally, there are two major
categoriesofapproaches:1)indicator‐basedapproach
and2)safetyboundaryapproach(Chenetal.,2018).
The indicator‐based approach determines the
encounter situation of ships based on certain
indicators that can reflect their spatiotemporal
proximity, e.g. DCPA (Distance to Closest Point of
Approach), TCPA
(Time to Closest Point of
Approach), relative position, relative speeds and
bearing,etc.Zhangetal.(Zhangetal.,2017)proposed
Vessel Conflict Risk Operator (VCRO) and its
variations facilitate identification of collision
candidateusingAISdata.Lietal(Lietal.,2015)also
utilized the distance between ships,
relative speeds,
coursedifference, etc. to formulate the mathematical
functiontoevaluatetheemergentlevelofencounters.
The safety boundary approach, on the other hand,
determines the encounter situation based on the
violation of certain safety boundary, e.g. Collision
diameter, ship domain, Minimum Distance to
Collision (MDTC) (Montewka et al., 2010),
etc.
Compared with the indicator‐based approach, this
approach considers spatial proximity using the
conceptoftheboundary.FujiiandShiobara(Fujiiand
Shiobara, 1971) first proposed collision diameter as
the boundary to determine which encounter is
dangerous, and such a concept was mathematically
proposed by Pedersen (Pedersen, 1995). Following
such an approach, many similar models have been
developed, see (Ylitalo, 2010). Christian and Kang
(Christian and Kang, 2017) introduced the COWI
model (COWI, 2008) to estimate the probability of
collision of the ship which transports spent nuclear
fuel, and Cucinotta et al (Cucinotta et al., 2017)
utilizedasimilarapproach
toobtainthefrequencyof
ship collision in Messina Strait. Montewka et al
(Montewka et al., 2012). established a probabilistic
model for the marine accident where MDTC is
utilizedascriteriaofcollisioncandidate.Szlapczynski
et al (Szlapczynski and Szlapczynska, 2016)
introduced ship domain as the criteria of collision
candidate
and proposed the degree of domain
violation(DDV)andtimetodomainviolation(TDV)
as indices to reflect the emergent degree of the
encounter.
Althoughvariousmethodshavebeenproposedto
obtain the number of collision candidate, there is
possibilitywhichcouldcauseover/underestimationof
the results. The reason caused such
issues is that
traditional methods do not consider encounter as a
process, instead of the instant information of
encounter,eitherusingindicatororsafetyboundary,
areintroducedtodeterminethesituation.In(Chenet
al.,2018) the authors have changed this perspective,
toconsidertheencounterasaprocessand
determine
collision candidate using Time Discrete Non‐line
Velocity obstacle algorithm (TD‐NLVO). The results
ofthispaperindicatethatcomparedwithtraditional
methods,thenewresultsofthisnewalgorithmshow
highreliability.However,duetothesimplificationin
thiswork,thesafetyboundarywassettobeacircular
shape,whichcouldleadtooverestimationtoa certain
extent.Therefore,inthispaper,thisissueisimproved
withtheintegrationofshipdomainmodel.
In this paper, the previous Time Discrete Non‐
linear Velocity obstacle algorithm is modified with
the integration of ship domain model, to further
improvethe
accuracyoftheresults.Firstly,theNon‐
linearvelocityobstaclealgorithmisintroducedasthe
basic tool to assess encounter situation from the
perspective of the process; Then, the elliptical ship
domainmodelisintegratedintothealgorithmtoact
as criteria of candidate determination. A case study
using actual AIS
(Automatic Information System)
dataisconducted,togetherwithcompassionbetween
the old and new algorithm. The arrangement of the
article is as follows: Section 2 illustrates the
methodologyofthispaper,followedbythedesignof
thealgorithminSection3.Acasestudyisperformed
insection4to
showtheresultsofthealgorithmand
thecomparison.Section5concludesthepaper.
2 METHODOLOGY
According to the definition in (Chen et al., 2018),
collisioncandidateisthepair ofshipsinanencounter
process where their spatiotemporal relationships
satisfy certain criteria that has the potential for
collision.Thisdefinition
providesanopenframework
that can integrate the selected criteria of geometric
collision probability into account. Therefore, in this
paper,theobjectiveistodesignacollisioncandidate
detectionalgorithmthatcandeterminetheencounter
to be dangerous according to the violation of ship
domain of own ship through the
process of the
encounter using historical AIS data in the certain
region.Todoso,TD‐NLVOalgorithmisadoptedas
the basic framework for collision detection, and
elliptical ship domain model is integrated as the
criteria.
3 COLLISIONCANDIDATEDETECTIONMODEL
3.1 TD‐NLVOalgorithm
Velocityobstaclealgorithmisa
typeofalgorithmthat
determinesthepotentialofcollisionbyprojectingthe
spatiotemporalrelationship between own object and
target, e.g. relative position, velocity, etc. into the
velocity space of own object and then checking
whetherownvelocityfallsintothevelocityobstacles
induced by the target. Such methods have been
widely applied in collision detection in robotics
(Fiorini and Shiller, 1998), meanwhile, it is still a
relatively new angle to assess ship collision risk. In
maritime transport field, Degre and Lefevre (Degré
and Lefèvre, 1981) first proposed the idea that
checking the danger of collision using the velocities
between own ship
and target. Such method was
furtherdevelopedandmathematicallyformulatedby
Lenart (Lenart, 1983), which is defined as Collision
ThreatParameterArea (CTPA).Since these methods
assume that the kinematic status of both own ship
andtargetshipremainconstantduringtheencounter,
they are also defined as Linear Velocity
Obstacle
(LVO), which is proved to be identical to CPA
analysisbyHuang,etal(Huangetal.,2017).Dueto
this assumption, the result based on LVO could be
over/estimatedsinceitcannotconsiderthechangesof
both ships’ kinematics during the encounter. To
improvethedeficiencyofLVO,the
constraintofLVO
thatthevelocitiesofshipsremainconstantduringthe