515
wasaddedin1960afteranumberof“radarassisted
accidents”(themostwell‐knownwastheStock‐holm‐
Andrea Doria accident in 1956). An autonomous
vessel will most probably, apart from day‐light
cameras, AIS and radar, also have infrared cameras
andmaybeLIDAR.Butevenifsensorresources
onan
autonomousshipcouldbejudgedasbeingbetterthan
thehumaneye,thisrulemakesitnecessarytoinclude
visibility sensors to decide if Rule 19, “restricted
visibility,”ortherules11to18,“conductofvesselsin
sight of each other,” should apply. A confounding
factorhere,
thatneedstobetakenintoconsideration,
isthatfogoftenappearsinpatchesorbanks,soeven
if the autonomous ship itself may be in an area of
goodvisibility,theothervesselmightbehiddenina
fog bank, in which case Rule 19 apply. A possible
solutionfor
theMASSmightbetocompareradarand
cameraimages.
Aphenomenon worth taken into consideration is
that while an autonomous vessel will weigh its
different sensor inputs in an objective manner
resultingina sightingwithaprobabilitymeasure,the
human operator on a manual vessel has a cognitive
systemthatprefervisualegocentricinputthroughthe
eyes as compared to exocentric images from radar
andelectronicchartsthatneedstobementallyrotated
tobeaddedtotheinnermentalmap,(Porathe,2006).
An example of this is the allision of the container
vessel Cosco Busan in 2007 with
the San Francisco
Oakland Bay Bridge in heavy fog but with fully
workingradarandGNSS/AISsupport(NTSB,2009).
Thehumancognitivesystemhasotherlimitations
such as e.g. “normality bias” and “confirmation bi‐
as.” (Porathe et al., 2018). With this, together with
otherhumanshortcomingslikefatigue,aninclination
towards short‐cuts, and sometimes sheer viola tions,
the risk is that the list of potential interaction
problems between human and machine guided
navigationwillbelong.
3 QUANTITATIVECOLREGS
Thecodeforacollisionavoidancesoftwarethatisto
coverallpossiblesituationswillhavetobeverylong
and he
would still not suffice. The unknown
unknowns,blackswans,wouldkeepappearing.
From a computer programmer’s point of view, it
might seem helpful if all qualitative, soft,
enumerations of COLREGS could be quantified into
nauticalmiles,degreesofarcandclockminutesonce
and for all. This would greatly facilitate
the
development of the necessary algorithms that will
governfuturecollisionavoidancesystems.However,
suchaquantifiedregulatorytextwould,inthesame
way, have to be very lengthy and it would still not
cover all possible situations. Instead COLREGS, like
otherlegaltextwillneedtohaveageneral
formatthat
isopentointerpretationsinacourtofmaritimelaw,
andtheoppositeof“theordinarypracticeofseamen,”
i.e.“goodseamanship,”includejuridicaloptionssuch
as “negligence” and “gross negligence”, (van
Dokkum, 2016). Ships technical performance and
maneuverability, experience and training of seamen,
allevolvewithtime,so
fortherulesoftheroadtobe
validtheymustbewritteninageneralmanner.
Insteaditis thealgorithmsof collisionavoidance
applicationsthatneedtobepreciseandquantitative.
By using AIS data and large scale simulations,
applicationscan bemade to learn the most effective
and efficient way of maneuvering in different
situations, still following the COLREGS. It would
probably be beneficial if such machine learning was
ongoing “lifelong” for the AI (Artificial Intelligence)
on the bridge, which then would become more and
more experienced through the years. However, it is
unlikely that the IMO would
accept an AI on the
bridgewhichwasnotcertifiedandwhobehavedina
precisely predetermined way for a specific situation
(evenifthiscouldbedefendedbycomparing theAI
toatrainedandlicensedthirdmateworkinghisway
up through the ranks gaining more and more
experience).
Anotherpointtopayattentiontoisthat,aslongas
there are manual ships governed by humans on the
sea, the actions of autonomous ships has to be
predictable for these humans. Autonomous
navigation,supportedbyartificialintelligenceonthe
bridge, has a number of advantages compared to
human,
manual navigation: improved vigilance,
improvedsensingandperception,longerendurance,
anabilitytolookfurtherintothefutureandtokeep
more alternative options open during the decision
makingprocess.Forinstance,bykeepingtrackofall
shipmovementsonaverylongrangeanAImightbe
able to
predict a possible close quarters situation
several hours ahead of a human navigator but may
therefor make maneuvers which might not make
sense to an OOW on a manual ship in the vicinity.
Therefore, it is of outmost importance that
autonomousshipsarepredictableandtransparentto
humans.
4 AUTOMATIONTRANSPARENCY
4.1 Anthropomorphism
Every one of us that are struggling with the
complexity of digital tools know that they do not
always do what we want or assume they will do.
They“think”differentlyfromus.Aninnatetendency
of human psychology is to attribute human traits,
emotions,orintentionsto
non‐humanentities.Thisis
calledanthropomorphism.Wedosobecauseitgivesus
a simple (but faulty) method to “understand”
machines. However, the chance is that if we know
that MASS always will follow COLREGS, we can
learntoknowtheirbehaviorandinahumanmanner
be able
to understand their working. This in
opposition to normal, manned ships, where you
alwayshave to be cautious of misunderstandings or
violations.
4.2 Identificationlight
In my opinion it is therefore important that ships
navigationinautonomousmode show some kindof
identificationsignal.Itcouldbean“A”addedto
their
AISiconinECDISorontheradarscreen.Duringdark
alightsignalcouldbeadded(e.g.apurplemast‐head
all‐aroundlight,seeFig.2).