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movement at northeast winds. The vessel cuts
the bow line at 77 minutes after the beginning
of scenario and takes a dangerous case for any
vessels nearside region that containing refinery
terminal installations. However, if necessary
measures are taken into pilotage and mooring
policy, that minimizes remaining risks (see
Table 3.)
Table 3. Drifting records of container vessel on berth
3.2.2 Risk Analysis for Manoeuvers in Harbour
Risk analysis is carried out by introduction of
quantitative results of simulations to ES model.
The model results give some forecoming evaluations
about risks that refinery installations are effected
by projected container terminal manoeuvers.
Environmental stresses that exposed by vessel traffic
and risk measures are investigated below.
1 As pointed out on Figure 9, ES values are
determined as 82% negligible, 17,4% marginal
and 0.6% critical levels.
2 In spite of 82% negligible risk level, 17,4%
marginal risk that means a dangerous situation
may be occurred in any time, observed due to
restrictions of maneouvering area. A good manner
and experienced assistance should be provided for
mentioned refinery terminal by masters and
marine pilots. Otherwise, marginal levels can
reach to unpreventable realizations.
Fig. 9. Risk Distribution of ES Model
3 0.6% critical levels must be reduced in any case
for safety of navigation and berthing. 0.6% ratio
of critical levels may not be accepted as
preventable and it is seriously taken into project
plan to remove.
4 CONCLUSION
A container terminal installation on a shore structure
brings some additional risks in this port region.
Quantitative analysis of the risks that caused by the
maritime traffic is a considerable tool to measure
safety and determine safety policy of the local area.
Furthermore, separation of negligible or critical risks
is a useful and vital opportunity for masters and
pilots. Research exposed that concerned refinery
terminal manoeuvers reached to 0.6% critical ratio.
Critical ratio introduces risks that must be reduced
mostly and it may cause an accident. 0.6% critical
ratio is lower as an ordinary level that may be
observed in any berth-pier combinations. Absence of
catastrophic ratio indicates that there is no need to
revise project.
Quantitative analysis of maritime traffic risks is
an important part of emergency case plans in a
waterway region. It is expected to apply for the all
ports of Turkiye as well.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors would like to thank to Prof Kinzo Inoue
for constructive comments and assistance about ES
Model experiments.
REFERENCES
Inoue K. 2000. Evaluation Method of Ship-handling
Difficulties for Navigation in Restricted and Congested
Waterways, The Journal of Royal Institute of Navigation,
Vol.53 No:1, pp.167-180, January.
Inoue K. 1999. Rating the Quality of Ports and Harbours from
the Viewpoint of Ship-handling Difficulties, Proceeding of
12
th
International Harbour Congress, pp. 203- -214,
September.
Yurtören C & Deniz C. 2006. Research on Effects of Port
Installations to the Vessel Traffic, Shores and Sea Regions
of Turkiye VI. National Congress, pp. 699-709, November.
Inoue K., et al. 1998. Modeling of Mariners' Perception of
Safety, The Journal of Navigation, No. 98, pp. 235-245,
1998.3. (in Japanese).
Inoue K., Yurtoren C., Wataru S., Usui H., Hirono K. 2003.
Method of Quantitatively Evaluating the Effectiveness of
Safety Improvement of Navigational Condition, Inter-
national Association of Institute of Navigation, World
Congress-11, Berlin, October.