272
navigation simulation for ocean‐going ships
(Hashimoto et al., 2016). The navigation simulation
modelwasdevelopedbasedonaweather‐routingone
developedbyKobayashietal.(2011,2015).However
actual route‐decision process of ships in severe
weatherisnotclearenoughwhereasitisoneofmost
important
elements for the development of rational
operationallimitations.Inthiscontext,thenavigation
simulation is not only a simulation tool for route
suggestiontocaptains,buttochecktheadaptationto
the new stability criteria. Therefore, the navigation
simulationshouldsimulateshiprouteswithsufficient
similarity with actual routesdecided
by captains by
taking account of the preferred safety margin
depending on the weather condition/forecast. The
route decision‐making criteria for regulatory
purposes must be objectively. There are several
researches in this direction (Vettor & Soares, 2015;
Hayashi & Ishida, 2004), but they are not objective
satisfactorily.
Byfollowingthesesituations,
thisstudyconducts
aninvestigationofshipactualroutesofshipsserved
inTrans‐northPacificinwinter.Thesubjecttypesof
shiparecontainer ships andpure carcarriers (PCC)
who are assumed to be affected by the second
generationintactstabilitycriteria.Firstly,shipmasters
whohave operated container
ships and/or PCCsare
interviewed to determine the route selection criteria
of the trans‐North Pacific Ocean routes in winter.
Secondly,AutomaticIdentificationSystem(AIS)data
receivedbysatellitesareusedasoneofmostobjective
data to reveal actual navigation routes in severe
weather condition to describe the relationship
between
the route selection and weather judging
criteria. Finally, the shipmaster’s on‐board decision‐
making criteria are discussed by analyzing the
trackingdataofactualshipsandweatherdata.
2 SHIPMASTERON‐BOARDROUTEDECISION
The developed navigation simulation is based on a
weather routing model. Even during actual
navigation, a
weather routing service is commonly
used; this means that weather routing is a main
method for correctly simulating practical navigation
routes. However, the route decision is ultimately
decided by the shipmaster. Hence, the shipmaster’s
intentionsneedtobeincludedintheweatherrouting
model.
In this study, shipmasters who were experienced
withacontainershipand/orPCCwereinterviewedto
determinetheweather criteria and limitationsof the
trans‐North Pacific Ocean route in winter. Here,
criteriarefertoa standardfornavigationwithoutany
restriction,and a limitation refers toa standard that
does not allow navigation. The findings of
the
interviewsarediscussedbelow.
2.1 Routeselection
Theshipmasterbasicallyselectsa routeaccordingto
the minimum distance and least ship motion
consideringthelocationoflow‐pressureareas.Along
the eastbound route from Asia to North America,
shipmasters navigate by great circle sailing. The
southernpartofthe great
circleisselectedto utilize
the tailwind and following waves from a low‐
pressure.Inaddition,shipmastersgenerallyselectto
navigatebehindalow‐pressureintheGulfofAlaska.
AlongthewestboundroutetoAsia,shipmastershead
towardstheBeringSea,where thewindsandwaves
arecalm. If
itisimpossibletoheadnorth,asouthern
routeisselectedbyMercatorsailing.
2.2 Informationusedforrouteselection
A shipmaster decides a route based on the weather
forecast a week before sailing. At that time,
navigationrecordsofpastvoyagesandthepilotchart
arealsoreferredto.Recently,
recommendationsfrom
weather routing service are used; even in that case,
theforecastaccuracyiscarefullyconsidered.
2.3 Effectsofwindand waves
The wave height criterion for container ships is
normally 5 m. Shipmasters select a route where the
forecast wave height does not exceed 6 m, but
sometimes
navigateareaswherethewaveheightis7–
8m.
In the case of PCCs, shipmasters feel that
navigationisdifficultwhenthewaveheightexceeds4
mbecauseofconcernsoverengineperformanceand
shipmotions,e.g.rollingandpitching.Inaddition,a
PCCisaffectedbywindbecauseof
itslargereceiving
area.
During racing and/or torque‐rich are occurred,
shipmasters consciously reduce the ship. Thus, the
receiving direction of the wave is determined by
considering the influence of the ship’s speed and
motion. Shipmasters normally avoid waves from
deadaheadasmuchaspossible.
3 EXAMINATIONOFCONCRETECRITERIA
USINGSATELLITEAISDATA
Basedontheaboveinterviewresults,thecriteriaand
limitationsforthetrans‐NorthPacificOceanroutein
winterwerelooselydetermined.However,thecriteria
needtobedefined more concretelyand numerically
in order to add an algorithm that represents route
decision‐makingbythe
shipmaster.Therefore,criteria
weredevelopedbyinvestigatingthetrackingdataof
actual ships and weather data in addition to the
interviewresults.
Presently, tracking data can be obtained from
satellite‐based AIS or the Long Range Identification
and Tracking system (LRIT). In this study, the
satellite‐basedAISdatawereused,
becausetheLRIT
dataaremostlyusedbygovernments,andtheformer
ismorefocusedoncommercialuse(Chen,2014).
The satellite AIS data were obtained from
exactEarth.Thedataincluded100containershipsand
84PCCsthatwerepickedatrandomfromthevessels
thatcrossedtheNorthPacific
Oceanfrom1
December
2015 to 29
February 2016. The weather and sea