655
1 INTRODUCTION
Today not only shipping companies are actually
strong competitors but also maritime nations
themselves compete against each other on marine
transportation markets. This is one of reasons for
governmentsandsocietiesofmaritimenationstotake
anumberofmeasurestoprovidethebetterconditions
for shipping companies and other ma
ritime sector
players in their countries with goal to make them
being able to be more competitive on worldwide
shipping market (Alop & Senčila 2013). The main
indicators showing the situation’s improvement are
ships’ “coming back” under flag ofcountry and the
stabilepositivedemandonlabourmarketofma
ritime
sector.
Thenumberofcomparativelabourmarketstudiesin
maritime sector made all over Europe are relatively
small. The main problem is alluded to the fact that
there are no comparable data sources. Collection of
Europe‐wide statistics through surveys is a very
large‐scalework,whichisnoteasytocarryout.Most
of the recent studies is therefore limit
ed to the
evaluation of vessels’ labour (seafarers), because is
mucheasiertoobtaincomparativestatisticsforthem.
Somestudiesconductedduringlasttwelveyearsare
describedbrieflyinTable1.
Methodological Approach and Basic Analysis of
Maritime Labour Market Needs by Case of Estonia
A.Alop&R.Leiger
EstonianMaritimeAcademyofTallinnUniversityofTechnology,Tallinn,Estonia
ABSTRACT:TheEstonianGovernmenthasadoptedEstonianMarinePolicy2012–2020(EMP)asalong‐term
planningbasisforthedevelopmentofmaritimesectorinEstonia.Anumberofpracticaltasksshallprovidethe
achievingofgoalsposedbydevelopmentplan.Oneofgoalsisworkingoutthestrategyfordevelopmentof
ma
ritimeeducationandtraining(MET)inEstoniaatleastfornext10years.Anenquiryamongtheenterprises
andotheractorscloselyre‐latedtomaritimesectorhasbeenconductedasfirststageofthisjob.Themaingoal
ofitwastodefinetheEstonianlabourma
rketneedsandtoadumbratethevisionfortrendsanddevelopments
infielduntil2025.
Theworkingoutofabove‐mentionedstrategywillbecompletedbyEstonianMaritimeAcademyofTUTbythe
end of2016.The results of firststagewere received by the end of 2015; aut
hors of this paper describe and
explainthemethodologicalapproachusingforsuchstudyworkaswellastheinstrumentsusedandmakethe
short analysis of results paying special attention to problems and “bottle necks” arising in course of such
enquiry.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 10
Number 4
December 2016
DOI:10.12716/1001.10.04.16
656
Table1.LabourmarketstudiesinEuropeanmaritimesector
_______________________________________________
AuthorGoalSomeresults
_______________________________________________
Leggate(2004) Toanalysetheextent Theemployersdo
ofthedeficitofsea‐ notbelieveinglobal
farersaroundworld seafarersdeficit,
ratherafraidto
dropinquality
Hart&Schotte Developmentsin Notenough
(2008)shipbuildingandstudentsstudying
repairsectorin2023 inshipbuilding;
demand
forthose
withhigher
educationwillgrow
by15%
ECORYS Internalreviewofthe WithintheEU
(2009)EUmaritimetrans‐ seafarerssupply
portsectorgreaterthan
demand;the
demandtogrow
acrossEurope
JapanThelabourmarket In2020thegrowth
International needsforworld 7,2%
comparingto
Institute,the merchantfleetin 2010
NipponFoun‐ 2020
dation(2010)
Sulpice(2011) Overviewofthe Forkeeping2010
supplyanddemand levelthenumberof
ofseafarersinEurope shipofficersmust
growby10%in
WesternEuropeand
by20%inEastern
Europeannually
Bernacki(2014) Maritimelabour Largestgrowthin
needsinSouthern marineandcoastal
Balticregiontourism(5upto
10%annually)
_______________________________________________
TheEstoniangovernmentadoptedduringlastfive
years some important documents directed to
improvements in the maritime sector. We hope that
thanking to that the situation in maritime sector in
Estoniawillhavetrendforimprovingincurrentand
next decades. Undoubtedly, the most important
documentinthisfieldisthe
“EstonianMarine Policy
2012‐2020” the main goal of which is to stop the
negative trends in Estonian maritime sector,
especially in shipping, and to achieve a positive
breakthrough in the developments during going
decadeandlater.
EMP vision incudes the requirement that the
maritime sector in Estonia shall be
attractive and
sustainable sector of Estonian economics and shall
createthehighqualitysurplusvalue.The4
th
priority
of EMP envisages that the MET and R&D in field
mustmeettwoconditions:1)themaritimeeducation
giving in Estonia ensures up‐to‐day education in
balanced capacity for specialists in all fields of
maritime sector as necessary; 2) the quantity and
qualityofresearchworksinEstonian
maritimesector
are growing up (Estonian Marine Policy 2012).
AccordingtoEMPoperationalprogramme2014‐2016,
theConceptionofMETmustbedeveloped;planning
of maritime education during at least next 10 years
shouldbeguidedaccordingtoit.Thecomprehensive
study of labour market needs in Estonian maritime
sectorwas
conductedin2015.Theresultsofthatare
the ma in source of basic data for working out of
Conception.
2 THEMETHODOLOGICALAPPROACH
2.1 Thebasicprinciples
The structure of employment of professionals with
maritime education in the Estonian maritime sector
bytheareas,jobpla cesandeducationlevelnever
has
beenanalysedbefore.Themaingoaloflabourmarket
studywastogivearoughestimatehowmanypeople
withwhichmaritimeeducationtheEstonianmaritime
sectoradditionallyneedsforperiod2016‐2025.
Theauthorsusedtwomainprinciplesasbasisfor
methodologyofthestudywork.Firstisthe
principle
of objectivity that was provided by conducting of
research by independent researchers involved by
tender. Second is the principle of scientific
methodological approach; it means that every
independentresearcherwhowouldliketorepeatthis
research work using the same methodology and the
sameinitialinputshouldhaveinevitably
moreorless
the same results. The objectivity of initial data is
necessarypresupposeforthat,itmustbeprovidedby
extracting of them from official and widely
recognised sources. Such sources were the Statistics
EstoniaandBusinessRegisterofEstonia.
2.2 Themethodologicalapproach
Therearedifferentmethodsformaking
theprognoses
for the labour market’s needs. In very general, we
may divide them to quantitative, semi‐quantitative
(e.g. econometric forecasting models, surveys of
employers and the skills audits) and qualitative
(Delphi method, case studies, focus groups and
qualification needs of the key businesses) methods.
Some comprehensive combination methods are
possible as well like sector or region based growth
visions, scenarios and monitoring. More used the
sector and alumni surveys, specific
area/sector/occupation/qualification surveys and
studies on a certain target group (the unemployed,
thedisabledandlowskilledpeople,ethnicminorities,
migrantworkers,etc.).Theyallhavetheiradvantages
anddisadvantages(Cedefop
2008).
The enquiries amongst employers are usual
instrumentforsuchstudies becauseasrulethereare
no the creditable statistical data about proposed or
vacantjobplaces.However,suchenquiriesareoftthe
object for critique because they not always enough
representative and give the static picture of
momentary situation
as well. Besides, they may not
reflect the situation objectively in full because the
subjectivity of employers’ viewpoints. The biggest
value of such enquiries is the qualitative view for
finding out the shortages in quality of labour forces
(e.g. appraisal of skills) – the collection of such
information could be quite
difficult using the
quantitativemethods.
The second frequently using method is the
statistical model.This method allows comparing the
demand and supply on labourmarket. The strength
of such model is in possibility for nationwide
applyingandinapplicabilityformorelongperiods(5
‐10 years). The weaknesses are the
relative
imprecision and excessive generalization, and some
insufficiency of model in whole as well – it is
657
principallyimpossibletofindanswersforsomemore
concretequestionsusingthismethod(Cedefop2012).
Taking into account all the above‐mentioned
factors, the authors of study work chosen the
combinedmethodology.Itcombines thequantitative
model based on statistical approach and qualitative
analytical method based on appraisals of employers
giving in course of so‐called semi‐structured
interviews.Therefore,thepracticalworkconsistedof
two parts: first part was the collection of statistical
informationabout employees fromenterprisesusing
the questionnaires; second part was the receiving of
qualitativeappraisalsaboutsituationinsectorbyuse
the face‐to‐face
interviews. By dint of first kind
information,thestructureoflabourforceinmaritime
sector by state of 2014 was determined and the
possibledevelopmentscenariosinnext10yearswere
composed and analysed. The employers had given
qualitativeappraisalstopossiblefuturedevelopments
intheirownoperatingareas,i.e.they
expressedtheir
opinion about quality, sufficiency and necessary
competencesofemployeesinnext10yearsaswellas
their expectations about quality and level of
educationoftheiremployees.
Theprognosismodeltookintoaccounttwo main
kind of demand affecting the developments: growth
demand and replacement demand. The growth
demand may be the positive one as well as the
negative one and itdependson economic prognosis
forthetestperiod.Whilstdevelopmentsineconomics
are dependent on a lot of circumstances and
unpredictable events, such prognoses are relatively
imprecise. Therefore, the method of different
scenarios was used that means
that so‐named basic,
conservativeandoptimisticscenarioswasdeveloped.
Table2.Thespecialtiesandjobplaces
_______________________________________________
SpecialtiesJobplaces
_______________________________________________
NavigationCaptain
ChiefMate
SecondMate
ThirdMate
Deckcadet
Boatswain
DeckRating(Sailor)
Pilot
VTSoperator
ShipEngineeringChiefEngineer
SecondEngineer
ThirdEngineer
FourthEngineer
EngineRating(Motorist)
ShipRefrigerationRefrigeratingEngineer
ShipElectroMechanics Electro‐TechnicalOfficer
ShipElectricityElectrician
ShipbuildingShip
BuildingandRepair
ShipbuildingManager
ShipbuildingPlanningand
Design
SmallCraftBuilding SmallCraftBuildingandRepair
SmallHarborManagement SmallHarborSpecialist
PortandShippingPortandShippingManager
ManagementShipAgent
CargoForwarder
Stevedore
ShipBroker
SeawaysOperationand Hydrographer
Maintenance
RadioElectronicsRadio‐ElectronicOfficer
_______________________________________________
The replacement demand is always positive
becauseanumberofemployeesinsectorinthelong
time perspective decreases inevitably by several
reasons: mortality, retirement and moving of
employeestootherworkingplacesoutofsector.The
labour market needs in maritime sector are affected
bybothgrowthandreplacement
demandfactors.
The selection of employees’ specialities and job
positions for study purposes was done. The ma in
principle of this selection was that people need
maritimeeducation forobtainingoftheir specialities
and for working in corresponding job positions.
Selection by specialities and job positions made for
purposesofpresent
studyworkisshowninTable2
(Rozeiketal.2015).
The selection of enterprises for enquiring and
taking the interviews was as following: using the
database of Business Register of Estonia the
enterprises were chosen by main field of activity
declaredbythemasactinginmaritimesectorduring
2008
‐2013. The activities were determined according
to Estonian Statistical Classification of Economic
ActivitiesEMTAK2008thatisthenationalversionof
EU classification NACE (website NACE 2016). The
structureandthechangeofnumberofcompaniesin
maritime sector during the period 2008‐2012 are
showninFigure1.
Figure1. Number of companies in the maritime sector,
2008‐2012
Source:Rozeiketal.2015
Additionally the enterprises that have been
declared maritime sector activity as ancillary one
were included to selection in case if researcher had
information about real acting of this enterprise in
maritime sector during named period. In such way
formedcompleteselectionby year 2013 consisted of
464maritimesectorenterpriseswith
9123employees
insum.
2.3 Someresultsofstudywork
The companies that responded to the questionnaire
employ in total 3543 people that is 39% of total
selection for study work. For getting the expert
opinions regarding to present situation and future
trends the semi‐structured interviews were carried
out within 39 most important and biggest Estonian
658
enterprisesaswellascraftunionsandgovernmental
bodiesinfield;theintervieweesweremainlyowners
or top managers of these enterprises and
organisations.Thereceivedinformationwasanalysed
and used for giving the appraisal to situation in
maritime sector having in mind the quality and
sufficiency of labour force
today and in future. For
better systematisation, the enterprises were divided
betweenthreefieldsofactivity:1)shipbuildingand
repair incl. small craft building and repair, 2)
shipping together with crewing, towing and
bunkering, 3) ports and port services together with
stevedoringandagency.
Enterprises’surveybyjobplaces
showedthatthe
majority of the employees with maritime education
constitute sailors. The other major category is the
engine ratings(motorists),fairly compelling are also
representedthethirdandfourthship’sengineerand
theshipʹschiefengineer.
Byfieldsofactivity,thelargestshareofemployees
inthemaritimesector
isengagedinshipping(47%of
sectoremployees).Thefollowingthreemajorareasof
activityarecrewing,shipbuildingandrepairandport
activities,whichprovideintotal40%ofthejobplaces
inmaritimesector(seeFigure2).
Figure2.Thedistributionof employees in maritimesector
byfieldsofactivity
Source:Rozeiketal.2015
The two most frequent specialties are navigation
and ship propulsion, which together represent a
range of staff with professional maritime education
nearly56%(seeTable3).
Table3. The share of maritime sector employees by
speciality
_______________________________________________
SpecialtyNumberofempl.Percentage
_______________________________________________
Navigation18128,1%
Shippropulsion18128,1%
DeckRating467,1%
EngineRating365,5%
Electro‐TechnicalOfficer 345,3%
Other16725,9%
Total645100%
_______________________________________________
For drawing up the prognoses of labour market’
needs three future developments’ scenarios were
composed on the base of statistical analysis,
interviewsandexperts’assessments.Theywerebasic,
conservative andoptimisticscenarios what hasbeen
preparedinaccordancewiththefollowingprinciples:
thebasicscenario‐thecurrentsituationandpast
trends
have a simple reflection to the future, no
structural changes envisaged, i.e. the continued
development of the sector in accordance with the
currentdevelopmentprojection;
the conservative scenario‐on the ba sis of the
strategical and research documents compiled more
modest scenario that takes into account businesses
estimations;
the optimistic scenario‐
in contrast to the
conservativescenariothemostpositivedevelopment
opportunities are selected, i.e. the challenges facing
thesectorwillrealizedinfull.
Accordingtothat,theneedsforadditionallabour
forcesinmaritimesectoruntilyear2025areshownin
Table4(Rozeiketal.2015).Underadditionallabour
forces
we understand people who need to have
maritime education for being employed in maritime
sector’ enterprises, governmental and supervising
organisations.
Table4.Theneedsforadditionallaborforcesuntil2025in
maritime sector and in governmental and supervising
bodies
_______________________________________________
JobpositionScenario
___________________________
Conservative Basic Optimistic
_______________________________________________
Captain4259 71
ChiefMate1418 25
Secondmate812 17
ThirdMate2124 29
Boatswain3136 44
Pilot1012 15
DeckRating(Sailor)6787 119
ChiefEngineer5766 79
SecondEngineer1315 20
ThirdorFourthEngineer 6473 89
Engine
Rating(Motorist) 7082 91
RefrigeratingEngineer810 13
Electro‐TechnicalOfficer 2125 30
Radio‐ElectronicOfficer 1113 15
Electrician2128 36
ShipElectrician2022 26
ShipBuilder8291 102
GeneralManagerof
Shipbuilding2023 27
ProjectManagerinShip
BuildingandRepair
1822 28
PortorShippingManager 4047 60
HarborSpecialist2123 28
Agency,Forwarding,
Brokering56 8
Other45 6
Total670788 978
_______________________________________________
Duringinterviews,theemployersgaveestimations
to the situation with the labor force from aspects of
quality and adequacy. More specifically employers
describedinsofartheyaresatisfiedwiththeexisting
labor force, how difficult or easy for them to find
labor,whichisalaborshortageorsurplus,and
which
competencesaremostimportanttohaveinthefuture.
Employersaregenerallysatisfiedwiththecurrent
workforce.Inparticular,theyweresatisfiedwiththe
659
quality of training of ship officers both deck and
engine personnel, but also port personnelʹ
professional competencies and education. There is
currentlyashortageofqualifiedChiefEngineersand
SecondEngineersinEstonianfleet,theneedforthem
will increase even more in the coming years due to
the growing
replacement demand. There is also a
shortageofElectro‐TechnicalOfficerswhosetraining
hasbeenabsentinEstoniaforalongtime;theirneed
for a replacement of the current workforce is
becoming increasingly due to high age. For Ship’s
Electriciansthereisthelabormarketsituation,where
demand is
greater than supply. Vocational
curriculum for training of shipʹs electricians exists,
but they are not trained now. In addition, there no
neither in Estonia nor in the international shipping
market enough unskilled workers, namely it is the
lackofasailorsandamotorists.
Theemployerssaidthatitis
necessarytoincrease
thecompetenciesofemployeeswithhighereducation
in fields of ship automation, electronics, radio
equipment and ICT. MET institutions must offer an
increasinglybroad‐basededucation.ICTcompetences
arebecomingmoreimportanttotheoperationofthe
portaswell,astechnologicaldevelopmentsinvolving
the exchange of
information digitalizationandports
automation.
By employers’ estimation, two main factors will
affect the development of the Estonian maritime
sectorinthecomingyears:1)changesintheeconomic
situation in the world and 2) decisions and actions
carriedoutinthenationalmaritimepolicytoimprove
the international competitiveness of
the Estonian
shipping. If the global economic environment
improvesthegrowthofshippingingeneralaswellas
thepassengerandfreighttransportationvolumeswill
take place, the demand for vessels’ services and the
constructionofnewshipsandrepairsofexistingwill
grow. Favorable tax conditions for seamen and
the
introduction of so‐called international ship registry
would result of more than 500 GT cargo ships
enteringundertheEstonianflag.Thiswouldimprove
the international competitiveness of the maritime
sectorinEstoniaandwouldcreatenewjobsplacesfor
maritimeprofessionals.
2.4 ThebasicprinciplesonConceptionofMET
inEstonia
Theresults ofinvestigationof labourmarket carried
outarethevery importantinputforworkingoutand
comingintoforcetheConceptionofMETinEstonia.
Of course, a number of other factors and impactors
shouldbetakeninto account. Actually, the study of
labourmarketneeds
hasmadetocertainextentclear
theso‐calledobjectivedemandcomingfromemployers’
sideinEstonianmaritimesectorinnext10years.The
importanttaskofConceptionofMETistoinvestigate
the supply as well as the subjective demand coming
fromcommunityside.
Very significant factors that strongly affect
situation on labour market of Estonian seafarers are
theinternationalcharacterofshippingandfreedomof
labourforcesmovingwithinEUthankingtothatalot
ofgraduatedshipofficersfindtheirjobplacesunder
foreign flags. For Estonia proportion between
seafarers‐residents of Estonia and Estonian seafarers
sailing under
foreign flags (mainly flags of
convenience) is nowhere near in the favour of
Estonianresidence.Thismaybeexplainedbyfactthat
numberofmerchantshipsflyEstonianflagiscloseto
zeronow.Theusualquestionofpoliticiansisdoesthe
country have obligation to waste money and
educationalpotential
forpreparationofwell‐educated
seafarerswholeavecountryandgotoforeignships?
Conceptionhastogiveanswertothisquestionamong
otherimportantthings.
The labour market needs investigation gives us
someimaginationaboutoutputofmaritimeeducation
andtraininginstitutionsthatshouldenterintomarket
every year
to satisfy the demand of that. However,
what is the real proportion between amount of
entrances to MET institution and number of
graduatesafter5yearsincertainspeciality?Inother
words,ifwewanttohaveforexample10graduates
withdefinitequalificationenteringtomaritimesector
in 5 years,
how many school youngsters have to be
enrolledtoMETinstitutionsonappropriatespeciality
today?Givingthecorrectanswersfor thisandother
questions is not so easy because of a number of
severalimpactorsplusnotalwayscleardevelopments
in future plus unstable and not very positive
demographic situation
in country and more other
factors.Allthesefactorsandtrendsshallbetakeninto
accountbyworkingoutofConception.
3 CONCLUSIONS
Anumberofresearchesandstudy workscarryingout
duringlastdecadeswasdedicatedtodevelopmentsof
MET and labour market problems in several EU
countries and in
EU in whole. A remarkable
difference between the methodologies and source
data failure making them difficult to use their
findings for generalization and trends identification
inwhole.
Becausethemaritimesector,especiallyshipping,is
very dynamic sector of economy from one side and
hasclearanover‐bordercharacterfrom
othersidethe
results of these jobs need regularly revising and
renewing. This is possible only by cooperation,
joiningofforcesofMETandR&Dinstitutionsinfield.
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