587
1 INTRODUCTION
The problem of the need to assess the possibility of
vesselstopassthroughtheice‐coveredareasand,at
thesametime,thenecessity ofplanningtheirsroute
resulted fromthe possibility ofuse on the Northern
Sea Route (NSR) the vessels with relatively low ice
class (Past
usiak 2016, 2015/2). Despite favorable
conditions for navigation of vessels with low ice
classes still have dangerous fast changes of ice
conditions, involvingperiodic blocking of
individualsections ofthe NSRby drifting icefields.
Thisprimarilyconcernsspaceconstraintsinthenodes
ofvessel’sroute(narrowpassages)andexistingthere
specific beha
vior of ice cover (processes of
concentration, compression, hummocking, ridging
and drift of ice), that reduce the vessel safety in
narrow passages more than in the open sea. This
particularly applies to vessels with low ice classes.
Therefore, hydro‐meteorological information,
especially information about ice conditions and
specificthreatsa
ppearingatparticularsectionsofthe
NSR,isveryimportantformaritimetransport.
Hasbeenhypothesizedthatthereisapossibilityof
developing comprehensive method of determining
the route of the vessel through the lightest ice
conditions.Atthesametime,thismethodshouldtake
into account the degree of difficulty of overcoming
the specific charact
eristics of ice cover by the vessel
Principles of Vessel Route Planning in Ice on the
Northern Sea Route
T.Pastusiak
GdyniaMaritimeUniversity,Gdynia,Poland
ABSTRACT:Acomplexoficecovercharacteristicsandtheseasonoftheyearwereconsideredinrelationto
vesselrouteplanning inice‐coveredareasontheNSR.Thecriteriafornavigationinice‐bothyear‐roundand
seasonalwereanalyzed.Theanalysisoftheexpertsknowledge, dissipatedintheliterature,allowedtoident
ify
somerulesofrouteplanninginice‐coveredareas.Themostimportantprocessesfromthenavigationpointof
viewarethedevelopmentanddisintegrationofice,theformationanddisintegrationoffasticeandbehaviorof
theicemassifsandpolynyas.
Theoptimalrouteisselectedonba
sisofavailableanalysisandforecastmapsoficeconditionsandiceclass,
draughtandseaworthinessofthevessel.Theboundaryoftheiceindicatesareasaccessibletovesselswithout
iceclass. Areaswith aconcentration ofice from0to 6/10are usedfor navigationof vesselsof differentice
classes.Areasofconcentrationoficefrom7/
10upareeligiblefornavigationforicebreakersandvesselswitha
highiceclasswiththeassistanceoficebreakers.Theseruleswerecollectedinthedecisiontree.Followingsuch
developed decision‐making model the master of the vessel ma
y take decision independently by accepting
grading criteria of priorities resultingfrom his knowledge, experience and the circumstances of navigation.
Formalizedformofdecisionmakingmodelreducesriskoftheʺhumanfactorʺinthedecisionandtherebyhelp
improvethesafetyofmaritimetransport.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 10
Number 4
December 2016
DOI:10.12716/1001.10.04.07
588
andbeuniversal,thatiscustomizedtoeachseasonof
theyear.Theaimofthestudyistodevelopamethod
for routing vessels on the NSR by the lightest ice
conditions, taking into account the difficulty of
overcomingtheicecoveratanyseasonoftheyear.
Achieving
the aim of work will be possible after
the dissolution of the partial objectives of the work
containedinthequestionsposedbelow:
1 What are the known ice conditions affecting the
ability to overcome the ice cover with specific
characteristicsbyamerchantvessel?
2 Isitpossibleto
rankthedesignatedcharacteristics
of ice cover in order, according to the degree of
difficulty posed by them to overcome ice by a
vessel?
3 Are all characteristics of the ice cover equally
important at any time of the year, or their
importancevariesdependingontheseason?
2 RESEARCHMETHOD
A preliminary analysis of the available literature
showsthatthereisnopublicationwhichdiscussesthe
complexissuesofvessel’srouteplanninginice.This
applies to both icebreakers and transport vessels.
Thereareanumberofpublicationsrelatingtoship’s
voyageplanninginareasofftheice‐coveredregions.
Often they involve proceedings of crews at various
stages of voyage planning. Much harder to find
publicationsontheroutingofavesselinicefordirect
useonboardvessels.From thenature ofthings, the
sources of information concerning voyage planning
androutingofvesselsiniceshouldbe
soughtinthe
firstplaceamongthecoastalstatesoftheArcticand
Antarctic and theStates conducting in these regions
theeconomicactivity.TheRussianFederationhasthe
greatest experience in the field of navigation on the
NSR.Forthisreason,atfirstanalyzedtheliteratureof
coastal states
of the Arctic Antarctic and the States
that conduct in those regions an economic activity
withspecialattentionforRussianFederation.
The first step was to determine the optimization
criterionforroutingofthevesselinice.Asastarting
pointtheauthorofthispaperadoptedthestatement
ofHolec
andTymański (1973),thatʺtheareas ofthe
appearanceofanyformsoficeshouldbeavoided,if
onlyitispossibleandifitdoesnotinvolveexcessive
elongation of the voyage timeʺ. Same way adopted
statement of Jurdziński (2000) thatʺthe basis for
planning navigation
in ice, or the selection and
developmentofthevoyageroute,toavoidmeetingan
ice, that a vessel cannot overcome independentlyʺ.
The publication of Holec and Tymański (1973) also
presented an assessment of the route selection
accordingtothecriterionoftheshortestvoyagetime
basedonH.
Seilkopfformulafrom1934.Theideaof
this method seems to reflect in some extent the
principle for route selection in ice:ʺsafe and most
cost‐effective mapping the route of the planned
voyageʺ (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987, CCG 2000,
Jurdziński 2000, Kjerstad 2011). This idea does not
take
intoaccountthesafetycriterionofnavigationin
ice. The principle ofʺsafe and most cost‐effective
routing of the planned voyageʺ takes the safety of
navigatinginiceamongotherthings,bytheselection
ofthelightesticeconditions.Therefore,adoptedthis
criterion as the basis for further solving the
relative
optimizationproblemfor determiningsafeand cost‐
effectivevoyagesinicecoveredregions.
It was assumed that the work will be a study.
Duringtheinitialreviewandsortingoftheliterature
onthesubjectthepublicationsthatmeetingneedsand
research topic were selected. Selected sources of
information
wereanalyzed inorder tofind required
partial information. The synthesis of partial
information served to develop generalizations with
inferences. Assumed, that the final result should be
the development of comprehensive procedures for
routingofthevesselinice‐coveredregions.
3 ANALYSISOFEXPERTSKNOWLEDGE
When considering a matter of
selection ofthe
criteriaforappointingvoyagesintheice‐coveredNSR
regionsnotedthatRussiansourceshave inthisfield
continuity in the geographical space over a longer
periodoftimeandconsistencytosolvethisproblem.
Characteristics of ice cover as an environment of
navigation same like route
selection criteria and
priorities of the characteristics of ice in the route
planning have been determined in several Russian
sources of information (Arikaynen and Tsubakov
1987, Arikaynen 1990, Khvochtchinski and Batskikh
1998, Mironov et al. 2010). These are practically the
only sources explaining these issues. Thus it was
assumedthatthey
willbethebasistodeterminethe
criteriaforappointingvoyagesontheNSR.
In general assumptions assumed that the most
important processes from the navigation point of
view are the development and disintegration of ice,
the formation and disintegration of fast ice and the
behavior of ice masses and
polynyas. Same time
optimalrouteis selectedon thebasisoftheanalysis
andforecastsoficeconditionsandiceclass,draught
and seaworthiness of the vessel (Marchenko 2012).
Theclassificationrulesfordifferentvesselsiceclasses
assumed average quantitative information about the
recommendedareasofoperationandconditionsofice
navigation. Is not expected, however, to use this
information for the restrictions of permissible
conditions for navigating vessels (Marchenko 2012,
Pastusiak2015/2).Itwasassumedthatintheprocess
ofuseofthevessel,theoperatorwillbeguidedbythe
requirements of the Ice Passport or other document
setting
outtheconditionsforthesafeoperationofthe
vesselinice,determiningthestructurallimitationsof
the vessel hull strength and the power of the
propulsionsystem.Atthesametimeitwasassumed
thatthevesselwilltakeintoaccounttheiceconditions
and safety of navigation in the
form of icebreakers
assistance (Mironov et al. 2010). This research was
conducted in Russia, including determination of the
algorithms of navigation recommendations in the
planning and implementation of specific marine
operations.Thesestudiestookintoaccounttheimpact
of the ice cover characteristics on navigation in ice.
Statistical andempirical
modeling allowedto obtain
the vessel’s speedinrelation to all characteristicsof
the ice cover, which can be characterized
quantitatively onthe basis of observations(Mironov
589
etal.2010).However,empirical‐statisticalmodelsdid
notdemonstrateinfullcharacteristicsoftheicecover,
which formalization proved extremely difficult.In a
number of cases, such formalization proved to be
almostimpossible.
The route planning criteria for the voyages valid
throughout the year in order of priority were
establishedbytheauthorbasedontheanalysisofthe
above‐mentioned publications (Arikaynen and
Tsubakov1987,Arikaynen1990,Khvochtchinskiand
Batskikh1998,Mironovetal.2010).Theseare:
Basic characteristicsof theice cover todetermine
the optimal route of vessel assumed ice
concentration and ice age (Arikaynen
and
Tsubakov 1987, Arikaynen 1990). The speed of
vessels while sailing in ice in practice was
determined by empirical correlation taking into
accountthethicknessoftheiceandconcentration.
Effectofothericecharacteristicstakenintoaccount
by means of adapted corrections. The Canadian
method of administrative regulations for
assessment
thepossibilityofthesafenavigationofa
vesselin iceis alsobased onthe iceconcentration
andiceages(Timcoetal.2005).
Ice floe concentration. At the beginning are
determinedareaswheretheconcentrationofice is
minimal (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987,
Arikaynen1990,Mironovet
al.2010).Itwasfound
thatthespeedofpowerfulicebreakerintheyoung
ice practically does not depend on the
concentration of ice floe. With the increasing
thicknessoftheice,itsconcentrationbeginstoplaya
decisive role in determining the icebreaker speed
(ArikaynenandTsubakov1987, Arikaynen1990).
The optimal route of the vessel is mapped out
outsidetheicemassifs,throughareaswithlow(4‐
6 / 10), and preferably very low (1‐3 / 10)
concentrationofice(KhvochtchinskyandBatskikh
1998).Areasofconcentration7‐10/10havebeenby
these authors assigned to
the difficult navigation
conditionsthatshouldbeavoided.
Thicknessofice.Intheareapreviouslyappointed
from the distribution of the minimum ice
concentration the areas with lowest ice thickness
are selected (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987,
Arikaynen1990).Isindicatedtoselecttheroutethat
passing through areas covered predominantly
by
youngice(KhvochtchinskiandBatskikh1998).Has
beenassumedthatduringtheformationoftheice
cover on the NSR (November‐December) the
vesselstraffictakesplaceinyoungiceonordinary
routesbytheshortestway(Mironovetal.2010).
Form of ice. When ice concentration and
ice age
arespatiallyuniform,themovementofthevessel
dependsonformofice(ArikaynenandTsubakov
1987,Arikaynen1990).Whenchoosingtheoptimal
path, priority is given to areas of greatest ice
comminution,whichisthesmallesthorizontalsize
of ice(Arikaynen andTsubakov 1987, Arikaynen
1990,Mironovet
al.2010).
Ridges and Hummocks. As one of the most
important,essentialfornavigationcharacteristics
of ice at any season of the year adopted its
hummocking‐degreeof icesurfacecoverageby
ridges and hummocks of all types (Arikaynen
and Tsubakov 1987, Arikaynen 1990). Adequate
impactofridgesand
hummocksonthemovement
of the vessel within purely analytical models
proved impossible to identify and demanded
citing of data from modeling and / or tests in
natural conditions (Mironov et al. 2010). When
selectingtheoptimalrouteshouldbeguidedby
the minimum amount of ridges and / or
hummocks
(Khvochtchinski and Batskikh 1998,
Mironovetal.2010).
Compacting of ice. From all these parameters, the
mostlimitingnavigationofvesselsiniceontheNSR
iscompactingofice.Undercertainconditions,the
most powerful icebreakers could not continue
theirs movement (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987,
Arikaynen1990).Compacting
oficeisamajorcause
offorceddetentionofships.Therehavebeencases
when compacting of icelasted for 20‐30 days and
vessels traffic was practically interrupted
(Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987, Arikaynen 1990).
Adequateimpactofcompactingoficeonmovement
of vessel, within purely analytical models, has
provedimpossibletoidentifyanddemandedciting
ofdatamodelingand/ortestsinnaturalconditions
(Mironovetal.2010).
Uniformity oficecover. TheArcticand Antarctic
ResearchInstitute(AARI)formulatedthegeneral
principlesofoptimization.Thevessel,aftertaking
into account previously mentioned ice
characteristics should
move toward areas with
loweruniformityoftheicecover(cracks,fractures,
channels),ifitisinlinewiththegeneraldirection
ofvesselmovementtowardsdestination(Mironov
etal.2010).
Depths in the basin. In accordance with the
principleslaiddownbyAARIthedepthsalongthe
planned vessel
route should meet the safety
requirementsofnavigation(Mironovetal.2010).
Afterthecriteriagoverningyear‐roundnavigation
in ice, based on analysis of research material, the
followingseasonalcriteriawereidentified:
in spring and summer period, when there is ice
melt, one must choose route so that
it passes
through regions where there is a maximum
disintegration of the ice cover (Arikaynen and
Tsubakov 1987, Arikaynen 1990, Mironov et al.
2010) and off ice massifs, in areas of low ice
concentration(4‐6/10),andifpossible‐inareasof
verylowiceconcentration(1‐3/10);
inthe
autumn(November‐December),whenthereis
a growth of the ice cover, one should seek routes
with minimal compacting of ice and minimal
adhesionoficetovesselhull(Mironovetal.2010);
inautumn‐winterperiod,oneshouldlookforareas
where ice cover shows minimal snow coverage
(Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987, Arikaynen 1990)
and areas with a maximum number of young ice
forms, polynyas and discontinuity of drifting ice
(KhvochtchinskiandBatskikh1998);
in winter(January‐May)one shouldsought routes
intheformat ionofthepolynyaareasadjacenttofast
ice(ArikaynenandTsubakov1987,Mironov
etal.
2010).Itisthennecessarytodeterminethelocation
of the edge of the drifting ice, the level of
development of polynyas adjacent to fast ice,
location of dynamically active zones (compacting)
anddisintegration ofthe uniformityof icesheet in
icemassifs.
590
Figure1. Routing of a vessel though the lightest ice
conditions: a – the principle „do not enter ice if an
alternative,althoughlonger,openwaterrouteisavailable”;
made by the author on the basis of ice map named
WSM_SS_20110706_100722_5084_1.dim.tif
(
http://www.polarview.aq/arctic, accessed 08.07.2011),b –
„thequickestrouteiniceisseldomtheshortest”;madeby
the author on the basis of ice map named
WSM_SS_20110706_100722_5084_1.dim.tif
(
http://www.polarview.aq/arctic,accessed08.07.2011)
4 RESULTS
Onthebasisofinformationconcerningthecriteriafor
routinginice‐coveredareastheauthorhasdeveloped
procedures for the processing of information for
routingpassageofvesselontheNSR(Fig.2,3,4).The
mostimportantcriterionadopteddegreeofdifficulty
to continue vessel voyage resulting
from the ice
conditions. The procedures included timeliness of
informationavailableaswellastheseasonalnature
of the information used. The surprising is the fact
that the most frequently described type of
information on the ice cover‐concentration‐is
applicable only at the end of this procedure. This
information
is depicted both in the full‐scale of ten
discreteorcontinuous,orinasimplifiedformas,for
exampleMariginal IceZone (MIZ)or intheform of
iceboundaryofacertainconcentrationofice.Itseems
that the greatest interest in the value of the
concentration of ice
resulting from the character of
MIZ zone. Boundary of the ice indicates areas
accessible to vessels without ice class. Areas with a
concentration of ice from 0 to 6/10 are used for
navigation by vessels of different ice class. Areas of
concentration of ice from 7/10 up are eligible for
navigationforicebreakersandvesselswithahighice
class with the assistance of icebreakers. In the MIZ
zone are sought opportunities to extend the
navigationseason,sosignificantduetothetransport
of goods and the exploitation of natural resources
underwaterandonland.Thisareaisrichespecially
intheindustrialresourcesofvariousfishspecies.At
thesametimeminimizingtheresistanceofthehullto
all ships in the surrounding ice floe plays an
important role in the economics of transport and
fishing.
Figure2.Flowchartofvesselrouteplanningthrough
ice‐coveredregionsontheNSR.Part1
Figure3.Flowchartofvesselrouteplanningthrough
ice‐coveredregionsontheNSR.Part2
591
Figure4.Flowchartofvesselrouteplanningthrough
ice‐coveredregionsontheNSR.Part3.
5 CONCLUSIONS
Therulesforcreatingvoyageplaniniceandlimitsof
navigation devices usefulness have already been
described in the literature. Safety of the vessel and
travelplanninginice‐coveredareas
wereconsidered
in terms of navigation equipment, gathering
information about weather conditions and ice,
limitationsduetocargoandhullstrength,theability
to overcome the ice with specific characteristics, the
speedofthevesselintheice,preparingthecrew,etc.
But not considered a complex of ice cover
characteristics
and the season of the year to plan a
routeinice‐coveredareasontheNSR.Therefore,just
onlythisadditionalaspectofthevoyageplanninghas
beenconsideredinthiswork.
Theanalyzedpublicationswereacompendiumof
knowledge of experts in the field of vessel route
planning
in ice. Based on this expert knowledge of
determined disordered facts (input) the rules of
procedureandfinallycompleteddeterministicsystem
in the form of the decision tree (flowchart) were
formulated. The presented algorithm is a decision
supportsystem.Itcanbeusedasthedecision‐making
patterns(Fig.3,Fig.
4,Fig.5),check‐listsorcomputer
program. On the basis of such developed decision‐
making model the master of a vessel may take
decisionindependentlybydefininggradingcriteriaof
priorities resulting from his knowledge, experience
andthecircumstancesofnavigation.Formalizedform
ofdecisionmakingmodelreducesrisk
oftheʺhuman
factorʺinthedecisionandthereby helpimprovethe
safetyofmaritimetransport.
Ittakeintoaccountexistingcriteriafornavigation
in ice‐both year‐round and seasonal. The basic
principleofroutinginice‐coveredareasistolookfor
thelightesticeconditionsonthegeneral
directionof
thedestinationof thevessel andthussafe andmost
economicallyefficient.Italsominimizes thedailyfuel
consumption.Themostimportantprocessesfromthe
navigation point of view are the development and
disintegrationofice,theformationanddisintegration
of fast ice and behavior of the ice
massifs and
polynyas. The optimal route is selected on basis of
availableanalysisandforecastmapsoficeconditions,
andiceclass,draughtandseawothinessofthevessel.
Themostimportantcriterionforthedesignationof
the route is level of difficulty to continue vessel’s
voyageduetotheiceconditions.
Itshouldbebornein
mind that the boundary of the ice indicates areas
accessibletovesselswithouticeclass(hullwithoutice
strengthening).Areaswithaconcentrationoficefrom
0to6/10areusedfornavigationofvesselsofdifferent
ice class.Areas of concentration of ice from
7/10 up
areeligiblefornavigationforicebreakersandvessels
with a high ice class with the assistance of
icebreakers.
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