International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 1
Number 4
December 2007
441
On the Relationships Between Indexes of
Merchant Vessel Accidents and Indexes of
Economy and Shipping
Zhongyi Zheng & Hejun Feng
Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, China
Guanghui Li
Ministry of Communications, Beijing, China
ABSTRACT: The statistics and analysis of the four accident indexes and the four marine transportation
indexes have been carried out to indicate situations of marine safety and marine transportation in China. By
grey correlation analysis, the main findings is that the number of marine traffic accidents is mainly determined
by the number of merchant vessels; the number of foundering is mainly determined by freight amount, and the
number of death and missing is mainly determined by the number of merchant vessels.
1 STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS ON INDEXES
OF MARINE TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
According to Regulations on Statistics and
Reporting of Marine Traffic Accidents established
by Chinese maritime safety administrations, four
indexes are used to indicate the marine safety
situation in China. The four indexes are named as
follows: (1) number of accidents: (2) number of
foundering ships; (3) number of deaths and missing:
(4) direct economic losses. The data of marine traffic
accidents is limited to accidents of merchant vessels
only; it does not include accidents of fishing vessels
and public vessels. A statistics and analysis of
marine traffic accidents in Chinese navigable waters
during the period 1993-2002 have been carried (Wu,
et al 2005). In order to know the new situation of the
marine safety situation in China, a statistics and
analysis on basis of the data of four indexes in 1996-
2005 years have made in this paper, and where
above four indexes are called separately as A1, A2,
A3 and A4 for short.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Number:A1;A2;A3;A4.
number of accidents(A1)
number of foundering ships (A2)
number of death and missing (A3)
direct economic losses(million RMB) (A4)
Fig. 1. Statistics on indexes of accidents
From this statistics, see Figure 1, it could be
known that the variation and tendency of four
indexes of accidents in last ten years. At first, the
number of marine traffic accidents keeps a continued
decrease in last ten years, except that there is an
increase in 2002. Second, the general tendency of the
number of foundering ships indicates slow increase
in fore six years and slow decrease in later four
442
years. Third, the general tendency of the number of
deaths and missing indicates slow decrease except
that there is an sudden increase in 1999, because that
a Ro-Ro passenger ship, named as “Dashun”,
capsized in storm weather in November 24
th
, 1999,
resulted in deaths and missing of 282 lives.
However, it should be noted that direct economic
losses keep a continued increase.
2 STATISTICS AND ANALYSIS OF ECONOMY
AND SHIPPING DEVELOPMENTS
When analysis the variation and tendency of four
accident indexes in last ten years, the economics and
shipping development conditions at the same time
should be also considered, because that quantity of
marine traffic accidents has certain relationship with
developments of national economy and shipping. In
this paper, another four indexes are selected to be
analyzed the relationship between four accident
indexes and one economic index and three shipping
indexes, which are named as follows: (1) GDP per
person: (2) freight amount; (3) number of merchant
vessels: (4) freight turnover. In order to know the
detail of the relationship between them, a statistics
and analysis on basis of the data of above indexes in
1996-2005 years have made. In this paper economy
and shipping indexes are simplified separately as B1,
B2, B3 and B4 for short.
From this statistics, see Figure 1, it could be
known that the variation and tendency of economy
and shipping conditions of China in last ten years.
First, if did not consider the influence of the
price, GDP per person increased from 5539 Chinese
Yuan (RMB) to 13944 Chinese Yuan in last ten
years, about 2.5 times more. As one of indexes of
national economic development, GDP per person
could give the economy and shipping background of
marine safety. It indicates that the occurrence of
marine traffic accidents is under the background of
high speed development of national economy, even
if affected by the financial crisis in Asia from 1997
to 1999.
Second, at the same time freight amount grows
continually; freight amount of 2005 is 1.7 times
more than 1996. It could indicate the background of
shipping development in China.
Third, the number of merchant vessels keeps
continuously decrease, the reasons is the
constitutive adjustment in merchant fleet. In one
hand, the size of vessels trends to larger, in another
hand, because of standardize of ships’ type in inland
waters and elimination of old-age ships, majority of
them is small ships.
Fourth, growth tendency of freight turnover keep
increase continuously at a large scale. It was 1.7862
billion ton kilometers in 1996 and increased to
4.9672 billion ton kilometers in 2005, about 2.78
times of it in 1996. Such fact may show the degree
of busy of ports and harbors. Reduction of ships’
quantity means that more and more ships are being
larger, marine traffic volume in each navigable water
area become increasing continuously. So it could be
expected that the risk of navigation increases
accordingly in navigable waters, if other conditions
do not change. Analyzing relations between four
indexes of marine traffic accident and the indexes of
marine transportation, the transportation cargo
volume by water of the circular flow can find out
their degree of influences to the marine traffic
accident clearly.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Number:B1;B2;B3;B4
GDP per person(hundred RMB)(B1)
freight amount(hundred million ton)(B2)
number of merchant vessels (ten thousand)(B3)
freight turnover(hundred billion ton)(B4)
Fig. 2. Statistics on indexes of economy and shipping
3 GREY CORRELATION ANALYSIS ON
ACCIDENTS INDEXES AND ECONOMY
AND SHIPPING INDEXES
3.1 Selection of mathematical analysis method
From the views of system theory, happenings of
marine traffic accident are related to some factors in
the marine traffic system, such as persons, ships,
environment, and management. From wider views to
consider the influence factors, the background and
conditions under which marine traffic accident
happens, may have some relationship to accidents.
Though integration of such factors results in the
accident, but the different factor gives different
influence to the happening of marine traffic accident
in the extent, some is big, some is small. So it is
necessary to know the relationship between
accidents and the background or conditions under
443
which accidents happens. In this paper the accident
indexes (number of accidents: number of foundering
ships; number of death and missing: direct economic
losses) and economy and shipping indexes (GDP per
person: freight amount; number of merchant vessels:
freight turnover) are used for relativity analysis. As
said above, accident indexes and economy and
shipping indexes may have some direct or indirect
relationship, but it is not clear to know the relativity
quantitatively. So grey correlation analysis measure
is selected as a mathematical tool to analyze and
investigate it quantitatively in order to seek the
inherence contact, so called regularity.
3.2 Establishment of grey correlation matrix and
calculation
The is used to find the primary factors which affect
the index value though analyzing the limited data in
grey system and seeking the relationship among the
inherent factors. Based on four accident indexes data
and four marine transportations indexes data, we
divided the data into three parts which are 1996-
2001, 2001-2005 and 1996-2005.
3.2.1 Calculation of the grey correlation matrix
After calculating the data from 1996 to 2005
through the calculation procedure of the grey
relational degree, then the grey correlation matrix (1)
is got as follows:
B1 B2 B3 B4
5349.07208.07347.05535.0
6761.09016.07905.06913.0
7673.06783.08340.07827.0
6247.09298.07461.06636.0
4
3
2
1
A
A
A
A
(1)
After calculating the data from 1996 to 2000, then
the grey correlation matrix (2) is got as follows:
B1 B2 B3 B4
6068.07748.07397.06029.0
6617.06829.07880.06570.0
6813.05403.07162.07267.0
5907.08978.07613.05826.0
4
3
2
1
A
A
A
A
(2)
After calculating the data from 2000 to 2005, then
we get the grey correlation matrix (3) is got as
follows:
B1 B2 B3 B4
5957.05555.05749.05835.0
6835.09714.06906.06808.0
6561.07630.07263.07098.0
6903.08624.07012.06884.0
4
3
2
1
A
A
A
A
(3)
where: B1—GDP per person；
B2— freight amount；
B3— number of merchant vessels；
B4— freight turnover；
A1— number of accidents；
A2— number of foundering ships；
A3— number of death and missing；
A4— direct economic losses;
3.2.2 Ordering the correlation results
After analyzing anglicizing grey correlation matrix
(1) in row and comparing the degree of relationship
between characteristic factors and children factor,
the result is got as follows:
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of accidents and the economy and
shipping factors is: B3 > B2 > B1 > B4
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of foundering ships and the economy and
shipping factors is: B2 > B1 > B4 > B3
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of death and missing and the macro
factors is: B3 > B2 > B1 > B4r
− The order of between direct economic losses and
the economy and shipping factors is: B2 > B3 >
B1> B4
After analyzing grey correlation matrix (2) in row
and comparing the degree of correlation between
characteristic factors and children factors, then the
result is got as follows:
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of accidents and the economy and
shipping factors is: B3 > B2 > B4 > B1
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of foundering ships and the economy and
shipping factors is: B1 > B2 > B4 > B3
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of death and missing and the macro
factors is: B2 > B3 > B4 > B1
− The order of between direct economic losses and
the economy and shipping factors is: B3 > B2 >
B4 > B1
After analyzing grey correlation matrix (3) in row
and comparing the degree of correlation between
characteristic factors and children factors, then the
result is got as follows:
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of accidents and the economy and
shipping factors is: B3 > B2 > B4 > B1
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of foundering ships and the economy and
shipping factors is: B3 > B2 > B1 > B4
− The order of degree of correlation between the
number of death and missing and the economy
and shipping factors is: B3 > B2 > B4 > B1
− The order of degree of correlation between direct
economic losses and the economy and shipping
factors is: B4 > B1 > B2 > B3
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3.2.3 Analysis of the calculation result
On basis of the results of above calculating and
analyzes the conclusions could be summed as
follows:
− The number of accidents has the closest
relationship with the number of merchant vessels,
the second is freight amount. It could be
explained that the number of merchant-vessels is
the primary factor that impact on the number of
marine traffic accident. It may say that more the
number of merchant vessels, more the number of
ship accidents.
− The number of foundering ships has the closest
relationship with freight amount; the second is
GDP per person. It could be explained that the
freight amount is the primary factor that impact
on the number of foundering ships. It may say
that more freight amount, more the number of
foundering ships.
− The number of death and missing has the closest
relationship with the number of merchant vessels,
the second is freight amount. It can be explained
that the number of merchant-vessels is the
primary factor that impact on the number of death
and missing. It may say that more the number of
merchant vessels, more the number of death and
missing.
− According to the calculating results, there is no
obvious close relationship between the direct
economic losses and GDP per person, freight
amount, number of merchant vessels and freight
turnover, relatively speaking, freight amount and
number of merchant vessels have more effects.
3.3 Comparison of the results of grey correlation
analysis between USA with China
For more detailed analysis of the effecting factors on
marine traffic accidents, similar grey correlation
analysis has been made by the authors of this paper.
On basis of the same nature of data of USA, the
results have been got as follows: the order of
correlation between the accidents indexes and the
economy and shipping factors is consistent: B4 > B3
> B2 > B1. The results could be explained that the
freight turnover is the primary factor that impact on
the number of marine traffic accident, is also the
primary factor that impact on the number of
foundering, the number of death and missing and
direct economic losses. It may say that more the
number of the freight turnover, more the number of
ship accidents; more the number of the freight
turnover, more the number of foundering ships;
more the freight turnover, more the direct economic
losses. Obviously the results of grey correlation
calculating on data collected from USA are different
to the results of grey correlation calculating on data
collected from China. The reasons of the different
calculating results between China and USA need to
be find out and analyzed later.
4 CONCLUSION
Through the calculation of grey correlation matrix
and its result analysis, the main findings could be
concluded as followings: In China, the number of
marine traffic accidents is mainly determined by the
number of merchant vessels; the number of
foundering ships result from marine traffic accident
is mainly determined by freight amount, and the
number of death and missing result from marine
traffic accidents is mainly determined by the number
of merchant vessels.
It is predicted that in the coming five years,
freight amount of China will increase by 38%, while
cargo throughput of national ports and main coastal
ports will increase by 46 percent and 78% separately.
Until 2010, with cargo throughput of national ports
exceeding 7.2 billion tons and marine cargo
transporting volume reaching 3 billion tons or so.
According to the results of grey correlation analysis
of data of 1996~2005, 1996~2000 as well as
2001~2005, it is possible that the number of marine
traffic accidents will continue to increase, in case
that marine cargo transporting volume increases
from 2.196 billion tons (2005) to 3 billion tons
(2010).
It should be noted that, under the background of
high speed development on economy and shipping,
the national policies of “safety first” and “prevention
first” have carried out effectively. The maritime
safety administrations, shipping companies and
seafarers all pay their attentions to improve marine
safety. Some necessary measures have been taken,
such as eliminating old-age ships, standardization of
inland water ships, standardization of local maritime
safety administration, and continuously enhanced
administration on passenger ships, dangerous cargo
ship and high risk sea areas, and so on. It should be
believed that the with the improvement of marine
traffic environment and conditions, the marine traffic
safety situation of China will keep steady or further
improved in the coming five years, even if great
increase of numbers of merchant vessels and freight
amount will continue.
REFERENCE
Wu, Zhaolin & Liu, Zhengjiang (2005). Statistics and analysis
of maritime traffic accidents in Chinese navigable waters.
IAMU Journal, 1, 2005, 63-72.
