403
1 INTRODUCTION
Maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea is very dense,
especiallyifthetrafficvolumesarecomparedtothe
size of the sea area. More than 2,000 vessels
continuously transport different kinds of cargoes on
theBalticSea.Approximately 25%ofthevesselsare
loadedwithoil,oilproductsorchemicals.(Balt
icSea
ActionGroup2008;HELCOM2009)TheBalticSeais
392,000 square kilometres wide with an average
depthofonly54meters.Asacomparison,theaverage
depthintheMediterraneanSeais1,550metersandin
the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans 4,000 meters. The
BalticSeaisonlyconnectedtotheNorthSeaandthe
At
lantic Ocean by the narrow straits of Denmark.
(Myrbergetal.2011)
TheGulfofFinlandistheeasternmostpartofthe
BalticSeaanditisapproximately400kmlong.Width
varies between 65 km and 135 km. The Gulf of
Finland is surrounded by three countries; Finland,
Estonia and Russia. The narrowest point is found
between Helsinki and Tallinn. The shores and the
archip
elagoaremainlyrocky,andtherearehundreds
of islands of various sizes. The total length of the
coastlineincludingtheislandsintheGulfofFinland
isupto6,500km.(Knuutila2011)TheGul
fofFinland
is very shallow, the average depth only being 37
meters. The Gulf and the archipelago are very
sensitive and vulnerable to pollution, due to for
examplethelowvolumesandslowturnoverofwater,
low temperatures and ice cover during winter, and
stra
tification of water into layers with different
temperatures.(Knuutilaetal.2009)
Thepurposeofthisstudyistoproducemaritime
oil transportation scenarios for the years 2020 and
2030 in the Gulf of Finland. Before the scenarios an
Changes in Oil Transportation in the Years 2020 and
2030 – The Case of the Gulf of Finland
O‐.P.Brunila&J.Storgård
UniversityofTurku,CentreforMaritimeStudies,Kotka,Finland
ABSTRACT: This paper covers the current state of maritime oil transportation in the Baltic Sea and the
developmentofoiltransportationinthe2000s,aswellasestimationsoftransportedoilvolumesin2020and
2030intheGulf ofFinland.Thescenarioswereformulat
edonthebasisofa currentstateanalysis,energyand
transportation strategies and scenarios and expert assessments. The study showed that the volumes of oil
transportationintheGulfofFinlandwillincreaseonlymoderatelycomparedtothecurrentstatus:9.5‐33.8%,
dependingonthescenario.Greenenergypolicyfavoursrenewableenergysources,whichcanbeseeninthe
smaller volumes of tra
nsported oil in the 2030 scenarios compared to the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow
development2020scenario,oiltransportvolumesfor2020areexpectedtobe170.6Mt(milliontonnes),inthe
Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil
volumesfor the 2030 scenarios were165Mtfor the Stagnating development2030scenario,177.5Mtforthe
Towardsagreenersociety2030scenarioand169.5MtintheDecarbonisingsociety2030scenario.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 8
Number 3
September 2014
DOI:10.12716/1001.08.03.11
404
analysisofthecurrentstateand futuredevelopment
of oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland is also
provided. On the basis of scenarios the group of
expertsestimatedtransportedoilvolumes in2020and
2030.Thestudyfocusesoncrudeoilandoilproducts.
Crude oil and oil products
are looked at separately
whenever possible (in many statistics there is only
one group, “oil”). The estimated oil transportation
volumesincludebothoilandoilproducts.
2 MATERIALSANDMETHODS
The study was carried out in two stages. First, a
statistical analysis and literature review on oil
transportation in the
Baltic Sea and on the
development of oil transportation in the Gulf of
Finland was made. The current state analysis and
development of oil transportation are mainly based
on information from ports, operators, terminals,
previous studies, governmental and EU databases.
The future scenarios are based on international and
national energy strategies
and on other future
scenarios(e.g.theBalticTransportOutlook2030,the
Technology Outlook 2020 and the Baltic transport
system – Finnish perspective). The purpose of
literature review was to found out the main future
trendsinRussiaandinEUwhichaffecttheamountof
maritimeoiltransportation.
Second,
expert panel gave an estimation of
transportedoilvolumesin2020and2030intheGulf
ofFinland.AnexpertworkshopwasarrangedinMay
2012. In addition, the experts who was not able to
participate the workshop were asked to give their
evaluationsbye‐mail.
3 OILTRANSPORTATIONDEVELOPMENT
IN
LASTDECADEINTHEGULFOFFINLAND
Inthelastdecadethevolumesofoilandoilproducts
transportationhasbeentripledinthewholeBalticSea
area.Themainreasonfortheincreaseinmaritimeoil
transportation volumes in the Baltic Sea is Russia`s
new oil terminals in
the eastern part of the Gulf of
Finland. The Port of Primorsk started operating in
2002,andotherportshaveincreasedtheircapacityas
well(Hänninen&Rytkönen 2004;Leningrad Region
2011). Even the economic recession in 2008‐2009
didn’t decrease the amount of transported oil Oil
terminalsintheport
ofUst‐Lugastartedoperatingin
March 2012. This will increase the transportation of
oilintheGulfofFinlandinthefuture.(UK&Trade
Investment2010;Ust‐LugaCompany2012)
In 2010, almost 290 million tonnes of oil and oil
productsweretransportedintheBalticSea,of
which
morethan55%viatheGulfofFinland(Holmaetal.
2011). The relatively small sea areas, crossing traffic
betweenHelsinkiandTallinnandoiltankersgoingto
thewestfromtheeasternpartoftheGulfofFinland
are a combination which can cause a huge
environmentaldisaster.Maritime
oiltransportationis
also vulnerable to security threats, anissue that has
attractedlessattentionintheBalticSea.
Inthefollowingtablethedevelopmentofoil and
oil products transportation between the years 2000‐
2012intheGulfofFinlandispresented.Asitcanbe
seen,theoil
transportationhasquadrupledinthepast
twelveyearsintheGulfofFinland,comparedthatin
the Baltic Sea oil transportation has been tripled. In
the year 2000 transported volumes in the Gulf of
Finlandwas43milliontonnesandin2012almost171
milliontonnes.Theincreaseinvolumesis
mainlydue
tothegrowing Russian export while the volumes in
EstoniaandinFinlandhavebeenquitestableduring
thelastdecade.
Figure1.Oil&oilproductstransportationdevelopmentin
theGulfofFinland2000‐2010.
In the Gulf of Finland totally 17 ports handle oil
andoilproducts: six ports in Finland, six in Estonia
and five in Russia. (Holma et al. 2011) Finland`s
largestoilportisSköldvikandporthandles96%of
the Finnish volumes. In Estonia the largest port is
Muugaand
portsshareofEstonianoilvolumesis82
%. In Estonia the majority of oil transportation is
transit traffic from Russia via Estonian ports to
Europe. (Port of Tallinn 2011& Holma et al.2011)
Estonia has no crude oil reserves or oil production
plantsorrefineriesofitsown.
In2000
inRussia,thehandledoilvolumewasonly
7.3 million tonnes, while in 2009 the volume was
almost 109 million tonnes and in the year 2012 the
volumewas127milliontonnes.Russiaopenedtheoil
portofPrimorskin2002.Sincethattime,thevolumes
inPrimorskhaveincreasedsix
‐foldfrom12.4million
tonnes to 79.2 million tonnes. The port of Vysotsk
started to handle oil in 2007, and its oil volumes
currentlyareabout14milliontonnes.IntheportofSt.
Petersburg, the annual oil volumes have increased
from7.4milliontonnesto16milliontonnes.(Holma
etal.2011&PaspRussia2012)Besidestheseports,the
port of Ust‐Luga started operating in 2012 (World
maritime news 2012). The Baltic Pipeline System 2
wasconnectedtotheportofUst‐Lugaandinfuture,
theoilvolumesinUst‐Lugaareexpectedtoincrease
rapidly.In the
year2013handled oilvolumesin the
PortofUst‐Lugawasalmost40milliontonnes.(Pasp
Russia2014)
405
4 PERSPECTIVESONTHEFUTURE
DEVELOPMENTOFMARITIMEOIL
TRANSPORTATION
This section will begin by going through Russia`s
energy strategy and oil production plans as well as
the EU’s climate and energy strategies and the
nationalenergystrategiesofEstoniaandFinland.The
scenariosconcerningfuturetransportationvolumesin
the
Baltic Sea and in the Gulf of Finland to be
presentedarebasedonthesetrends.
4.1 Russia`sEnergyStrategies2020and2030
Russiahasoneoftheworld’slargestenergyresources
and it controls one third of the global natural gas
reserves,onetenthoftheoilresourcesand
onefifthof
the coal reserves. (Ministry of Energy of Russian
Federation2003;Liuhto2010andCohen2007)Many
countriesin Europe and Central Asiaare dependent
on Russia’s energy resources (Woehrel 2012; Cohen
2007and BOFIT 2012).Theseresourcesarethe basis
oftheeconomicgrowth,externaltradeandpolicy
of
Russia. Currently Russia exports around 70 % of its
oil production (Liuhto 2010). The key elements of
Russianlong‐termnationalenergypolicy are energy
safety, energy efficiency, budget effectiveness and
ecological energy security. In 2009 it was reported
thatRussiawillinvest1.8‐2.1trillionUSdollarsin
oil
andgasprojectsby2030.Theseprojectswillincrease
oilproduction for Europeanand Asiandemand and
also for Russia`s own demand (Kupchinsky 2009).
The realization of a social and economic long‐term
energystatepolicyhasbeendividedintotwophases.
The first phase includes the basis for Russia´s
progressive development with different scenarios of
socialandeconomicdevelopment.Thekeyscenarios
forthefirstphaseareanormativeandlegislativebase
withoutbarriers,energyefficiency,andexportsofoil
andgasintheinternalandexternalfuel andenergy
markets. The second phase comprises the formation
ofa
newfuelandenergycomplex.Thepolicyaimsfor
growth, transparency andcompetition in the energy
markets. Existing energy modes will also be
developed.(MinistryofEnergyofRussianFederation
2003)
Oilproduction willcontinueinthetraditionaloil
productionregionsinRussia,butalsonewoilandgas
fieldswill
bebroachedinNorth‐easternRussia(the
Timan‐Pechora region). In the future, Russia´s main
oilbasewillbeinWesternSiberia.Inoilproduction,
the main priority will be the rationalization and
increaseofproductivity.Russia’sEnergyStrategyalso
contains objectives related to renewable and local
energyresources,although
thesearenotveryclearly
defined. (Ministry of Energy of Russian Federation
2003)
4.2 EUandnationalfuturepoliciesinFinlandandin
Estonia
The aims of the European Union`s Energy and
Climate strategy are to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases by 20% (compared to the 1990
levels),toincreasethe
shareofrenewableenergiesto
20%of the EU’sfinal energy consumption and to
increase energy efficiency by 20 %. The aims also
include increasing the share of biofuels in the
transport sector to 10%. (Finland`s Ministry of the
Environment 2011) The EU climate and energy
package includes four
directives: revision and
strengtheningofTheEmissionTradingSystem(ETS),
An “Effort Sharing Decision”, Binding national
targetsforrenewableenergyandcarboncaptureand
storage.(EuropeanCommission2010)
TheEuropeanUnionhasalsocreatedtheconcept
of Short Sea Shipping, which refers to a maritime
transportspacewithoutbarriers.Themaritime
mode
of transport is highly efficient in terms of
environmental performance and energy efficiency.
The EU`s maritime transport policy until 2018
includes the main strategic goals for the European
maritime transport system until 2018 and identifies
key areas for action which will strengthen the
competitiveness of the sector while enhancing
its
environmental performance in the EU. (Commission
of the European Communities 2009; European
Commission2011)
Finland`s and Estonian national energystrategies
follow the EU`s policy. The challenged faced by
Estoniaisthat90% ofEstonia`senergy consumption
isproducedwithoilshales.Inaddition,thecountry’s
connectiontoRussia’senergynetwork
causescarbon
leakage.Estoniahasalreadyinvestedincuttingdown
on emissions from the oil shale power plants.
(Hamburg2007;Kisel2008)
In Finland, the main goal is to decrease the
consumptionofenergyandtocutdownonemissions.
EmissionsthatareoutsideEmissionTradingmustbe
reducedby
16%by2020.InEstoniaandinFinland,
nationalenergy strategies gohand inhand with the
EU`s climate and energy package. (Turunen et al.
2008)
5 SCENARIOSANDFORECASTSFORMARITIME
OILTRANSPORTATIONINTHEGULFOF
FINLANDIN2020AND2030.
5.1 Aboutthescenarios
Thevolumesofoil
andoilproducttransportationin
theGulfofFinlandin2020and2030wereformulated
by using expert assessments. The workshop was
attended by seven persons. In addition, an e‐mail
inquirywassenttosevenexpertsofwhomtwogave
theirestimationsbye‐mail.Intheworkshop,the
basic
outlines for each scenario were presented and then
expertswereaskedtogivetheirestimationsaboutoil
volumesineachscenario.Estimationswere givenas
probabilitydistributions,inotherwordsexpertsgave
foreachscenarioamostprobableandminimumand
maximumvaluesoftransportedoil volumes. 
Thereasonfor
thethreedifferentscenariosforthe
years2020and2030isthatthefuturedevelopmentof
maritime oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland
dependsonmanyfactors,anditisnotrealistictogive
onlyoneestimation.Bygivingthreescenarioswecan
analyzehowthevolumes ofoil
transportationwould
differindifferentsituations,takingintoconsideration
forexampleeconomic,politicalorenergyissues.For
each scenario, three different figures of oil
406
transportation volumes were formulated in order to
takeprobabilitydistributionsintoaccount.
5.2 Scenariosfor2020
5.2.1 The“Slowdevelopment”scenario
Basicassumptions:
StagnanteconomicgrowthintheEU
Recessionprevails
Heavy industries move to Asia, South America
andothercontinents
Demandforoil decreases
OilproductioninRussiafailstoincrease
Noinvestmentsinoilproductiontechnology
The“Slowdevelopment”scenarioisbasedonthe
assumption that the European countries and Russia
willsufferfromalong‐termeconomicslowdown.Itis
expected that the economic crisis prevails especially
inSouthernEurope.The
demandforconsumergoods
willdecreaseorremainatthecurrentlevel.Alsoitis
assumedthatheavyindustries,suchasthemetaland
forestindustry,willcontinuetomovetoAsia,South
America or other continents in order to cut
productioncostsandbecauseofthegrowingdemand
indeveloping
countries.
Thedemandforoilandoilproductswilldecrease
becauseofhighoilpricesandthatiswhythelogistics
costs will become more expensive. Russia has no
interest in investing in new technology in oil
production as the demand for oil is decreasing.
Despite the low economic situation,
in this scenario
the Baltic Pipeline System 2 is connected to port of
Ust‐Luga,inotherwords15‐20 million tonnes of oil
willbetransportedviaUst‐Luga,startinginlate2012
or2013.TheoiltransportationwillincreaseinRussia,
butit will cut the transittransportation fromRussia
viaEstonianport.
5.2.2 The“Averagedevelopment”scenario
EconomicgrowthcontinuesintheEUandRussia
Heavy industries develop new products and
productioncapacityismaintainedinEurope
Demandforoilincreasesdespiteoftheincreasein
thepriceofoilandoilproducts
Russiaproduces
oilatfullcapacitywithSovietera
equipment
Someinvestmentsinoilproduction/technologyare
made
This scenario depicts a “business as usual”
situation. The population, economy, technology and
societycontinuetodevelopinasimilarmannertothe
past decades in Europe. Itisbelieved that economic
growthwillbe
morerapidinRussiathanintherestof
Europe. New oil and gas pipelines connect Russian
portsandgaslinestoEurope.InRussiaoilports,Ust‐
LugaandPrimorskwilloperateatfullpowerandfull
capacity. In Europe, fossil fuels and oil will remain
the main energy
sources for transport. Present
investments plans for efficient energy technologies
willberealisedby2020.Alsogrowingdemandforoil
willleadtoinvestmentsinnewandmoreefficientoil
products technologies. In this scenario, heavy
industries will continue their operations in Europe
and new green products and innovations will be
made.
In Finland and Estonia, the demand for oil
productswillonlyincreasealittle,becausetheshare
ofbiofuelsandotheralternativeenergysourceswill
increase. Oil transportation in Estonia will decrease,
becauseRussia willconcentrateitsoil transportation
toitsownportsand only small amounts of
Russian
oilwillbetransportedviaEstonianports.
5.2.3 The“strongdevelopment”scenario
FasteconomicdevelopmentinEuropeandRussia
Despite new innovations in transportation, oil
remainsthemainenergyresourcedespiteitshigh
price
Russia speeds up its investments in production
and refinement technology to increase its
oil
producingcapacity
RussiastartstoexplorenewoildepositsinArctic
areasandseas
The EU invests more and more in green
technologyandrenewableenergyresources
Largeinvestmentsinports,vesselsandtankers
The “Strong development” scenario is the most
optimistic vision of economic development
and
transportinEuropeandRussia.Theoveralleconomic
situation and trends are very positive at the global
level.
Thedemandfor oil will remain high all over the
world,regardlessofitshighprice.Russiawillinvest
inoilproductionandrefinementtechnologiesforthe
currentoilproductionareasand
expandoildrillingin
theArcticareas,buttheproductionwillnotstart.Oil
productionintheArcticareasismoreexpensive,but
the high price of oil products will make drilling
economicallyviable.
The EU will invest more and more in green
technologies and renewable energy resources. The
targets
of the climate and energy package for 2020
will be achieved as planned in the strategies. This
scenarioassumes that the physical sizeof ports will
not grow much, meaning that there will be no new
pierareasforlargertankers.
5.3 Oiltransportationvolumesin2020
IntheSlowdevelopment
2020scenario,theexpected
volume of oil transported by ships in the Gulf of
Finland will be 170 million tonnes. The minimum
volume was estimated to be 151 million tonnes and
the maximum volume 182 million tonnes. The
minimum figure almost equals the volume of oil
transportedin2009.In
theprojecttheyear2009was
chosenasbasicyearwheretocomparetheresults.
In the Average development 2020 scenario, the
expected volume of oil transported is 187 million
tonnes,theminimumvolume169milliontonnesand
the maximum volume 207 million tonnes. In the
Strongdevelopment2020scenario,the
expectedvolume
ofoiltransportedintheGulfofFinlandis201million
tonnes,theminimumvolume177milliontonnesand
the maximum volume 218 million tonnes. In the
following table the expected volumes of oil
transportationineachscenariofor2020arepresented.
407
Thetablealsoshowsthechangeinpercentagepoints
incomparisonwiththe2009volumes.
Table1.Estimatedoilandoilproductstransportationinthe
GulfofFinlandin2020
_______________________________________________
Milliontonnes Change(%)
_______________________________________________
Year2009150.6
Slowdevelopment2020170.613.3
Averagedevelopment2020 187.624.2
Strongdevelopment2020201.533.8
_______________________________________________
5.4 Scenariosfor2030
5.4.1 The“Stagnatingdevelopment”scenario
Targets of the EU`s climate and energy strategy
willnotbeachieved
Lackofinvestmentsingreentechnologies
Transportationcostsarehigh
Heavy industries relocate production to Asia,
SouthAmericaortoothercontinents
No new oil
or gas production areas have been
taken into use in Russia because of a lack of
investments
Nonewinvestmentsintankersornewmaritime
technology
TheArcticsearoute hasbeenopened
Theforecastfor2030ismorenegativethanthatfor
2020 because of the longer
time span. More radical
changesmaytakeplace,forexampleintheeconomy,
politics and the climate. The Stagnating development
scenarioassumesthattheimplementationoftheEU`s
climateandenergypackagehasfailedandthereisno
interest in greener technology. It is believed that
despite of the recession,
some development must
have happened over the next two decades. In this
scenariothemainenergy resource fortransportation
willstillbeoil. Thedemandfor oilwillincreasethe
price of oil and transportation costs. Because of the
pooreconomicsituationallovertheworld,thereare
no investments in
new energy saving transportation
technology.
Heavy industries haverelocated their production
from Europe to Asia, South America or other
continents because of lower labour and production
costs.Russiahasnotbeenabletoincreaseitsoilorgas
supply. Oil production in the Arctic area is so
expensivethatonly
testdrillingshavebeenmade,but
production has not started. No new investmentsare
being made in ports or vessels, except for the
compulsory investments to replace outdated tanker
fleet. The opening of the Arctic Route will change
transportationroutestosomeextentby2030.
5.4.2 The“Towardsagreenersociety”
scenario
The EU`s climate and energy package will have
beenimplementedasplanned
The EU will become a more and more carbon
neutralsocietyfollowingthevisionsoftheenergy
strategy2050
Demandforoil productshasdecreased
In the industrial sector, new, successful openings
will
bemadeinEurope
New innovations in transportation are made,
which helps to handle increasing volumes more
efficiently
Russia will have expanded its oil production
activitiestoArcticareas
TheArcticsearoute willbeopened
In the Towards a greener society scenario, growth
continues in a similar
way as in the Average
developmentscenariofor2020.Theeconomicsituation
willbemainlypositive.In2030,theEU`sclimateand
energypackageobjectiveswillbeachievedandnew,
moreambitiousstrategieswillbe formulatedforthe
following decades. The EU is becoming more and
more carbon neutral society.
Renewable energy is
increasinglyreplacingfossilfuelenergyrecourses.
Despiteofeconomicgrowth;itisbelievedthatthe
demand for oil will decrease. The reason for the
decreasing oil demand is the increasing amount of
renewable energy sources and bio fuels. In the
transportation sector, there will also be a shift
towards railways and multimodal transportation
modes. Heavy industries have relocated their
production to countries in what are now called
developing countries, but the green wave will have
broughtnewinnovativeindustriestoEurope.
Russia will have been building up its oil
production capacity especially in the Arctic. The
growing demand
for oil will be in Asia, so the
majorityoftheoilfromnewoilproductionareaswill
go to China and India, where private and public
transportationwillincreasestrongly.
5.4.3 The“Decarbonisedsociety”scenario
TheEUwillimplementnewstricterenvironmental
policy
Manyvehiclesuseelectricity
DemandforoilproductsisdecreasinginEU
RussiawillbuildnewgaslinestoEuropeandoil
pipelinestotheArcticSeaandAsia
Oil volumes in Russia will increase, but most of
thenewoilproductionwillbeconsumedinAsia
TheArcticsearoute
willbeopened
Inthisscenario,theEUwillimplementverystrict
environmental policies, which all EU member states
follow. This trend will also be apparent in other
western countries. Green technology will be one of
themajorexportproductsinEurope,andlesswealthy
countries in particular are attempting to
solve their
energy problems with green technology. Still it is
believedthatoilandfossilfuelswillremainthemain
energy recourse in poorer countries and also in
Russia.Russiawillstilluseoilandfossilfuelsbecause
of its national production capacity. New battery
technologies will enable the use
of electricity as a
powersupplyincars.Theremainderoftheworldwill
stillbemainlyusingcombustionenginesincars.
Russia´s oil production will expand to the Arctic
areas, and the country will produce increasing
amounts of oil. As in the Towards a greener society
scenario,inthisscenario,
too,almostallArcticoilwill
travel through pipelines to Asia. Russia`s domestic
demandforoilwilldecreaseandRussiawillbeginto
usegreenertechnologiesintransportationandenergy
production.NewgaspipelineswillbebuilttoEurope
408
via the Baltic Sea. Europe will prefer using gas
because the carbon capture is one of the EU´s key
toolsinthefightagainstglobalwarmingandclimate
change.
5.5 Volumesin2030
In the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, the
expected volume of oil transportation is 165 million
tonnes,and
theminimumandmaximumvolumesare
148and177milliontonnesrespectively.Comparedto
theoilvolumestransportedin2009,oiltransportation
willincreaseby9.5%.
In the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario, oil
transportationintheGulfofFinlandwillincreaseby
almost18%comparedto2009.The
expectedvolume
is177.5milliontonnes.Theminimumvolumeis156
milliontonnesandthemaximumvolume192million
tonnes. The demand for oil in Europe will probably
decreaseorremainstable,whileRussiawillcontinue
transportingoilandoilproductsoverseasviatheGulf
ofFinland.
In the Decarbonised society
2030 scenario, the
transportationofoilandoilproductswillbealmostat
the same level as in the Stagnating development
scenario.Itisexpectedthatoiltransportationvolumes
will increase by 12.5 % from the 2009 level. The
expected volume is 165.5 million tonnes and the
minimum and maximum
volumes 153 and 190
milliontonnesrespectively.
Inthefollowingtabletheexpectedvolumes ofoil
transportationineachscenariofor2030arepresented.
The table also shows the change in percentage in
comparisonwiththe2009volumes.
Table 2. Expected volumes in oil transportation scenarios
fortheyear2030andchangeinpercentage.
_______________________________________________
Milliontonnes Change%
_______________________________________________
Year2009150.6
Stagnatingdevelopment2030 1659.5
Towardsgreenersociety2030 177.517.8
Decarbonisedsociety2030 169.512.5
_______________________________________________
6 SUMMARYANDCONCLUSIONS
Oil transportation inthe Gulf of Finland has almost
quadrupledinthepast tenyears.In Figure 2 the oil
transportation development from the year 2000 to
2012ispresentedinblackdots.Asitcanbeseenfrom
thefigure,thedevelopmenthasbeenrelatively
linear
fromtheyear2000‐2012.
Figure 2. Development of oil transportation in the Gulf of
Finland.
Thevolumesoftransportedoil intheGoFcannot
increase in a linear manner because of production
capacity. Grey dots are scenarios, which have been
created in the MIMIC project. The scenarios for the
years2020and2030,aretheaveragegrowthscenarios
estimatedthattheoiltransportationvolumesare187
milliontonnesintheyear2020and178milliontonnes
in 2030 (towards a greener society scenario). The
estimates presented in the aforementioned scenarios
werebasedonexpertinterviews.
According to the experts, there will only be a
moderate increase in the oil transportation volumes
comparedtothe statistics for
2009.Variationsin the
scenarios are not major, but the minimum and
maximum volumes of oil and oil products
transportedineachscenariohavequiteawiderange.
Thisvariationbetween the minimum and maximum
scenarios varies around 30 to 40 million tonnes.
Transported oil volumes in the Slow development
scenario
in 2020 and the Stagnating development
scenariofor2030arealmostthesame.Wecanseethat
the estimated volumes of Ust‐Luga increase the
transportation volumes, but depending on the
scenario,thevolumesforEstoniaandFinlandmight
decreasealittle.Intheaverageandstrongdevelopment
scenarios for
2020, the transported oil volumes will
increase.Thereasonfortheincreasingoilvolumesis
that new technologies and the share of renewable
fuelswillnotdeveloprapidlyinthenextsevenyears.
Ifnewtechnologies,forexampleelectricvehicles,are
in a wide use, the demand for oil products will
decrease. However, especially in transportation of
passengers and goods, fossil fuels will remain the
mainenergysource.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study has been made as a part of the MIMIC
(Minimizingrisksofmaritimeoiltransportbyholistic
safetystrategies)project.Theprojectisfundedbythe
EuropeanUnionandit
hasbeenapprovedasanEU
flagship project. The financing comes from the
European Regional Development Fund, the Central
Baltic INTERREG IV A Programme 2007‐2013; the
CentreforEconomicDevelopment,Transportandthe
Environment of Southwest Finland (VARELY); the
CityofKotka;Kotka‐HaminaRegionalDevelopment
409
Company (Cursor Oy); Kymenlaakso University of
AppliedSciences; the Finnish EnvironmentInstitute;
the University of Tartu; Tallinn University of
Technology and the Swedish Meteorological and
HydrologicalInstitute.
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