245
1 INTRODUCTION
Nowadayswideattention within maritimesociety is
paidtotheshortageofseafarers.Themainreasonis
thattheskillsandexperienceofseafarersarevitalto
thesmoothfunctioningoftheshippingindustry,and
are also highly valued by enterprises in the wider
maritime cluster and beyond
(Oxford Economics,
2014).
The worldwide supply of seafarers in 2010was
estimated to be 624,000 officers and 747,000 ratings,
whilethecurrentestimateofworldwide demand for
seafarers (in 2010) is 637,000 officers and 747,000
ratings(BIMCO/ISF2010).Asoneoftheresponseto
shortage of seafarers the International
Maritime
Organizationin2008launchedcampaign“Gotosea”
to attract entrants to the shipping industry (IMO
2008).
However, it takes time to give results for such a
campaignthereforeitisdifficulttoassesstheresultsif
there is no available information about changes in
number of entrants. The Task
Force on Maritime
Employment and Competitiveness in their report
underlined the need for reliable data to assess the
scopeandscaleoftheproblemsregardingshortageof
seafarers(EC,2011a).
European Union (EU) policy papers also
underlinestheimportanceofshortageoftheseafarers
as the seafarers and their knowledge,
skills and
competencesareperceivedasimportantresourcefor
the development of sustainable European maritime
cluster. European Maritime Safety agency is
Determination of Parameters to Model Seafarers’
Supply in Latvia
R.Gailitis
LatvianMaritimeAdministration,Riga,Latvia
A.Fjodorova
NovikontasMaritimeCollege,Riga,Latvia
ABSTRACT:Shortageofseafarersisimportanttopicasmaritimeindustryplaysakeyroleforeconomyofthe
EuropeanUnion.Accordingtothelatestassessmentofeconomicvalueofshippingindustryin2012,theEU
shippingindustryisestimatedtohavedirectlycontributed€56billionto
GDP,employed590,000people,and
generated tax revenues of €6 billion. During recent years increasing attention is paid to the education and
training of seafarers as the seafarers and their knowledge are essential to sustainable development of the
maritimecluster,asindicatedinthemaritimestrategyofEuropeanUnion. Indicative
estimatessuggestthere
werealmost38,000students/cadetsinmaritimeacademy–typetrainingacrosstheEUandNorwayin2012,a
11%increasefrom2004.Understandingofcurrenttrendsinthepoolofseafarersisprerequisiteforsuccessful
implementationofthestrategy.Mainobstacleforassessmentofeffectivenessislackof
possibilitiestomonitor
contributionfrommaritimeeducationinstitutionstocurrentstateofEuropeanseafarers’pool.Theaimofthis
articleis to showparameters which shouldbe taken into account to model seafarers’ supply in future. The
parametersarediscussedonthebasisofinformationfromtheSeamenRegistryof
MaritimeAdministrationof
Latvia.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 8
Number 2
June 2014
DOI:10.12716/1001.08.02.10
246
developing unified database collecting the
information regarding the issued certificates of
competency by EU member states. While this data
systemis not launchedit is difficultto predict what
willbethepossibilitiesofsuchasystem.Theproblem
with the data is clearly stated in Study on EU
seafarers’
employment‐itis clear that detailed data
on maritime employment is scarce, sometimes
outdated and often not reliable. Moreover, the great
differences from a country to another are in data
collection and presentation of results prevent all
serious analysis on employment structure and
evolution(EC,2011b).
This article shows the
experience of the Seamen
RegistryofMaritimeAdministrationofLatvia(MAL)
inanalysisofparameters(number,age,qualification)
andprocesses (inflow,outflow)ofLatvianSeafarers’
pool as the basic factors for modelling seafarers
supply. The article discusses the pool of certified
seafarers with regard to number, qualification, age
groupandshows
theinflowandoutflowparameters
fordeckandengineofficers.Asthegeneralworkers
on board are represented by ratings, who are
relatively unskilled and have less training than the
officers, therefor trainee officers or cadets provide a
necessarynewinputintotheindustry.(Glen,2008)
2 DATABASEOFLATVIAN
SEAMENREGISTRY
Informationis the ba sisof any analysis The Seamen
Registry of Maritime Administration of Latvia uses
informationfromthedatabaseoftheLatvianSeamen
Registrytoanalyseprocessesandparametersofpool
of seafarers.The main aim of the database of the
Latvian Seamen Registry is to serve for
seafarers’
certification purposes according to national and
STCW requirements. The database contains
informationnotonlyabouttheissuedcertificatesbut
also about the employment, education, training and
seamendischargebook.Seetable1.
Table1.Dataareas,sourcesandmaininformationfieldsof
databaseofLatvianSeamenRegistry(MAL2014)
_______________________________________________
Dataarea Maindataprovider Mainfields
_______________________________________________
Personaldata SeafarerBirthdate,placeof
living,nationality
Certificatesof Issuingorganization,STCWreference,
competenceseafarervalidityof
andotherendorsement
qualification
documents
Education EducationinstitutionNameofprogramme,
qualification,STCW
reference,graduation
year
TrainingTrainingorganizationTrainingcourse,STCW
reference,validityof
course,coursedate
Employment
Nationalcrewing Shipname,flag,
agenciesemployment,period,
capacityonboard
_______________________________________________
Thedatabaseisbasedontheseafarerasdataunit
andrelatedrecordsofindividualperson.Eachperson
in database has his/her own information blocks,
where records regarding to his education, training,
andemploymentcertificatescanbefound.Maindata
providers are the Seamen Registry, seafarers,
companiesandtraining
centres.
3 THEORETHICALCONCEPTOFSEAFARERS’
POOLMODELING
Conceptof“shortageofseafarers”islinkedwithtwo
estimated figures and means difference between
figures of supply of seafarers and demand of
seafarers.Numberofships,size,typeandmanning
requirementonthemservesasbasisforcalculationof
demand figures. The
information mostly is collected
from various sources such as administrations,
questionnairesorindustryrepresentativesforsupply
figures(Glen,2008;Li&Wonham,1999).
The supply /demand analysis is described by
WaalsandVeenstraintheirarticle“AForecastmodel
and benchmarking of the supply and demand of
maritime officers” (Waals,
2002). The methodology
for modelling Latvian seafarers’ supply in future is
developed on the basis of Waals’ and other
researchers’worksinthisfield.
ThedemandforLatvianseafarersisnotanalysed
in this article as Latvia should be considered as
seafarers’supplyingcountry(EC,2011a)andmostof
the Latvian
seafarers are employed under foreign
flagsonshipsownedbyforeignshipowners.In2013
only6%of seafarerswere employed on ships under
Latvian flag according to data analysis from the
database of the Latvian Seamen Registry. Therefore,
nationaldemandforseafarersislimitedanddemand
isdrivenbyinternational
fleetdevelopment.
Asanylabourmodel,theseafarers’poolmodelis
stockmodelwherethepresentconditiondependson
inflowandoutflowprocesses.
Figure1.Simpleconceptofseafarers’pool(authors)
Althoughseafarercanbeconsideredasanyperson
working on board this article focuses on qualified
seafarers–personsholdingdocumentofqualification
issued by the Latvian Seamen Registry.STCW
reference in this article is used to indicate qualified
seafarer holding qualification document containing
reference to STCW Convention. Therefore, active
seafarers
in context of this article are persons who
hold valid documents of qualifications and are
available for shipboard employment.It is not
possibletousedatafromdatabasetodeterminethose
whoarenotseekingtoworkonboardshiporinactive
seafarers (Glen, 2008) as the data reflects facts
not
decisions. Considering qualification as the basis of
determination of number of active seafarers
additionalattentionispaidtotheofficers’poolinflow
247
parameters looking to the maritime education and
training system where graduates are obtaining
qualifications.
4 SEAFARERS’POOLPARAMETERSAND
PRESENTCONDITIONS
Number,qualificationsandagecanbeconsideredas
mainseafarers’poolparameters.Ship’stype,sizeand
flag on which seafarers are employed can be
consideredasadditionalparametersfor
theemployed
seafarers.However,thisarticlefocusesonavailable
pool; therefore, employment parameters are not
discussed. The data about the employment cannot
provide complete picture of the active number of
Latvian seafarers as approximately 10% of seafarers
are employed directly or through foreign crewing
companies, which are not obliged to
provide data
about employment to the Latvian Seamen Registry.
Alsopartofseafarersdoesnotworkonboard ships
regularly, therefore it is difficult to assess the
accuracyleveloftheemploymentdata.
The number of seafarers in Latvia is calculated
every year with reference date – the 1
st
of January.
The number of valid documents of competence or
qualifications such as certificates of competency or
certificatesofqualificationistakenasthebasisofthe
number of seafarers. The validity period of
endorsementor qualificationdocumentisfiveyears,
therefore it is assumed if the endorsement is not
revalidated seafarers have left the pool of active
seafarers. Similar approach is used in United
Kingdom(UK)wheretheactivenumberofofficersis
based on data on those seafarers who are holding
Certificates of Competency (CoC) (Department of
Transport2013).ThedifferencewiththeUKapproach
lies in determination of
number of ratings as in UK
these data comes from a membership survey
conductedbytheChamberofShippingbutinLatvia
thevalidityofqualificationdocumentisused.
Thelastvalidcertificatesaretaken asindicatorin
calculations,showingthequalificationanditslevelas
personcanhavetwo
ormorevalidcertificatesatthe
sametime.
The active or employed seafarer is person who
holds a valid certificate and therefore can be
employedonboard.Thepublishedfiguresaboutthe
number of seafarers reflect the number of persons
withvalidcertificateseven if they are not employed
onboard
inparticularyear.Thesizeandstructureof
activeseafarers’poolinLatvianisgivenintable2.
Table2.Sizeandstructureofseafarers’pool(MAL2014)
_______________________________________________
Totalnumberofseafarers13,015
1)Merchantfleetseafarers:12,030
1.1)Deckdepartment5730
Officers2600
Ratings3130
1.2)Enginedepartment:4885
Officers3045
Ratings1840
1.3)Cateringdepartment(cooks,stewards)1415
2)Inlandfleetseafarers&personelloffishingvessels 985
_______________________________________________
92%ofseafarersaretheseafarersofmerchantfleet.
47.6% of them are classified as deck department’
seafarers, 40.6% are classified as engine department’
seafarers, but 11.8% are classified as catering
department’seafarers.Astheshortageofseafarersis
referencedtoshortageofofficersdetailedstructureof
officersis
shownintable3.Only10%ofallofficersor
16% of engine department officers are reefer
engineersandelectrotechnicalofficers thereforemain
focusinfurtheranalysisispaidto deckofficersand
engineers.
Table 3. Structure of officers according to the department
(MAL2014)
_______________________________________________
Deckofficers46%
Officersinchargeofnavigationalwatch A‐II/1 30%
(ofdeckofficers)
Mastersonshipsof3000GTormore A‐II/2 39%
(ofdeckofficers)
Chiefofficersonshipsof3000GTormore A‐II/2 24%
(ofdeckofficers)
Engineofficers54%
Officersinchargeof
anengineeringwatch A‐III/1 20%
onshipswith750kWpropulsionpower
ormore(ofengineofficers)
ChiefEngineerOfficersonshipswith A‐III/2 33%
3000kW
propulsionpowerormore
(ofengineofficers)
2
nd
EngineerOfficerson‐ships‐with3000kW A‐III/2 21%
propulsionpowerormore
(ofengineofficers)
ElectrotechnicalofficersA‐III/6 12%
(ofengineofficers)
Ref.engineers(ofengineofficers)4%
_______________________________________________
Shareofdeckofficersis46%fromallpersonswith
valid officers’ certificates.Main part of all officers
bothinengine(53%)anddeckdepartment(63%)has
management level certificates which allow them to
work on ships with 3000 GT/3000 kW propulsion
power or more.The number of seafarers
does not
provide information about how many seafarers are
closetoretirementageorhowmanyseafarersstarted
theircareerrecently.Thefigure2showstheaverage
agestructureoftheseafarersofmerchantfleet.
Figure2. Age structure of the seafarers of merchant fleet
(MAL2014)
It can be seen that proportion of merchant fleet
increases till age of 29 years and then gradually
decreases. Sharp decrease of number of seafarers
starts from age of 60. It can be assumed that active
seafarers are in the age range from 20 to 65 years
248
(approximately 97% of seafarers are within this age
range).Alsoitisclearthatseafarersovertheageof65
aregoingtoretireintheclosestyears.Additionally
the seafarers with different qualifications from
different departments can be analysed. The table 4
shows how many seafarers from all seafarers
with
particular qualification can be found in given age
group.
Table4. Age groups of seafarers in deck and engine
departments(MAL2014)
_______________________________________________
Agegroup20‐29 30‐39 40‐49 50‐59 60<
_______________________________________________
Masterson0%21% 21% 41%17%
ships>3000GT
Chiefofficerson 11% 48% 18% 18% 5%
ships>3000GT
Watchofficerson 48% 32% 10% 8%2%
ships>500GT
Deckratings31% 25% 17% 19% 8%
Chiefengineerson 0%17% 29% 37%17%
ships
>3000kW
2
nd
engineers6%38% 27% 23% 6%
onships>3000kW
Watchengineers 33% 38% 18% 10% 1%
onShips>750kW
Engineratings 24% 21% 18% 24%12%
Approximately half of the ratings both in engine
and deck department are under the age of 40.The
largestgroupofwatchofficersandwatchengineersis
under the age of 30. The largest groups of chief
engineersandcaptainsarebetweentheageof50and
60.Relativenumber
ofratingsisquitesimilarinage
groupsfrom30upto60yearswhichcanberelatedto
thelimitedpossibilitiesofthegrowthincomparison
with engine and deck officers where amplitudes of
relative numbers are higher. The relative changes in
different capacities shows the career path on board
fromwatchdeck/engineofficertothemasterorchief
engineer.
5 SEAFARERS’POOLDEVELOPMENT(2004‐2014)
The historical development of number of qualified
seafarers should be analysed with reflection to the
numberofseafarers.Trendsforthreemaingroupsof
the seafarers of merchant fleet (deck officers, engine
officers,
ratings)areshowninfigure3.
Figure3.Trendsinnumber ofseafarers 2004– 2014(MAL
2014)
Trends show that number of certified ratings
duringpast10yearshasbeenconsiderablydecreased
from2004till2009andremainedmoreorlessstable
in past five years. The number of certified deck
officersremainedstablewithinpast10yearswhilefor
engineofficerscanbedistinguishedtrendofgradual
decrease. The detailed comparison between years
2004and2014areshownintable5.
Table5. Changes in number of the seafarers of merchant
fleet(MAL2014)
_______________________________________________
Qualification2004 2014 Relative
change
_______________________________________________
MasterandChiefmate1625 1820 12%
Navigationalofficer785 780‐1%
Chiefandsecondengineer 1740 1865 7%
Watchengineer1060 660‐38%
Electricalengineer545 420‐23%
&electricians
Refengineer170 140‐16%
Deckrating4590 3130‐32%
Enginerating2620 1800‐31%
Cateringrating1455 1415‐3%
Total
14585 12030‐18%
_______________________________________________
Itcanbeseenthatthenumberofpersonsholding
managementlevelcertificatesbothindeckandengine
departments has increased. While the number of
watch officers remained the same the number of
certified watch engineers has decreased by 38% and
thenumberofqualifiedelectricalengineers andreefer
engineers has also decreased. The number of deck
andengineratingshasdecreasedalmostby1/3while
the number of catering ratings has remained stable.
These figures give an overview of balance between
inflow and outflow for those qualifications.
Assuming that demand conditions for officers are
more favourable than for ratings,
it can been
concluded that inflow for engineers has not been
sufficienttokeeppoolofqualifiedengineersinstable
condition.Thedecreaseofratingscanbeexplained
by local economic development and decrease of
overall demand for ratings from Europe. Balance of
inflowandoutflowprocessescanbe better
analysed
by comparing relative changes in age groups as
showninfurtherfigures.
Figure4.Comparisonofagegroupsfordeckofficers2004‐
2014(MAL2014)
Comparing age structure of deck officers in 2004
(2410persons)andin2014(2600persons)givesview
thatshapeofagestructurein2004movestorightside
(see figure 4). Also the peak in age group 45‐49 in
249
2004 (19 % of all deck officers) has moved to age
group55‐59in2014andreducedto13%.Thedrop
ofrelative shareofpersonsinagelessthan25years
can be explained by changes in maritime education
system as now graduates from programmes of deck
officer
andengineofficercomesoutofinstitutionsin
ageof22‐25.Almosthalfofdeckofficersareunder
the age of 40; therefore, present conditions can be
assessedasstable.
Figure5. Comparison of age groups for watch engineers
andmanagementlevelengineers2004‐2014(MAL2014)
Thefigure5showsdataabouttheagestructureof
engine officers who hold A‐III/1 and A‐III/2 STCW
certificates.Theshiftofleftsideofgraphtorightsays
that inflow of new engine officers has decreased
during past years.Only 36% of engine officers are
undertheage
of40,whichleadstotheconclusionthat
present inflow conditions are not sufficient to keep
poolofengineersinstableconditionandmostlikely
the decrease of engineers will continue in future (in
2004 were 2800 engineers comparing with 2525 in
2014).
Figure6.Comparisonofagegroupsforreeferandelectrical
engineers2004‐2014(MAL2014)
Figure 6 shows the age structure of reefer and
electrical engineers in 2004 (715 persons), 2009 and
2014(560 persons). Theshape and movement of the
age structure to right side shows that inflow
conditions are not sufficient in recent years and
decreaseofthoseseafarerswillcontinue.Alsoonly
22%
of reefer and electrical engineers are under the
age of 40, therefore decrease in coming years is
inevitable.
Figure7. Comparison of age groups for deck and engine
ratings2004‐2014(MAL2014)
Figure7showsagestructurefordeckandengine
ratings.The shapes of age structure in given years
are similar with some movement to right in middle
part.In2004therewere7210personscertifiedasdeck
and engine ratings but in 2014 there were 4930
persons. It shows that relative
inflow and outflow
patternsremainedalmostthesameregardingtheage
groups with exception that relatively less persons
obtain ratings qualification in age till 25 in
comparisonwith2004.
6 INFLOWOFOFFICERS
Inflow to seafarers’ pool is linked with maritime
education system which prepares the persons who
after graduation
can obtain qualification and
therefore can be employed on board. Maritime
education system is also stock system where inflow
reflects interest and attractiveness of maritime
education in a country. The most important
parameter is number of graduates who can be
certifiedasofficersandenteractiveofficers’poolfor
modelling seafarers’
resources. The number of
students or trainees in system can also be used but
thenthelengthofprogrammeanddropoutratefrom
education system should be considered because not
allofthepersons graduate.Alsonotallofthepersons
after graduation obtain qualification; therefore,
graduates’dropoutrateshould
betakenintoaccount
(Waals, 2002).The figure 8 shows simplified
maritimeeducationsysteminLatvia.
The inflow analysis and outflow analysis focuses
on deck officers and engineers and does not cover
reefer engineers (at present moment there are not
availablespeciallydesignededucationalprogrammes
forthem)andelectrotechnicalofficersas
thenumber
ofgraduateswhoobtainedsuchqualificationduring
pastfiveyearsisinsignificant.
Thegreyarrowsinfigure8showthepossibilities
toentermaritimeeducationsystemfromoutside,red
arrows show possibilities to move from one
programme to another and green arrows show the
possibilitytoobtainofficers
qualification.
250
Figure 8. Structure of the maritime education system for
officersinLatvia(authors)
The number of graduates is not unambiguous
parameter as part of the graduates can enter other
programme at the next educational level and
therefore remains in education system. Also
education system can experience changes. For
example, till 2008 graduates from maritime school
programmescouldcandidatetocertificatesas watch
officer(A
‐II/1)orwatchengineer(A‐III/1)depending
on theprogramme. However, due to thechanges in
theeducationsystemthegraduatescancandidateto
certificatesaswatchofficersonshipslessthan500GT
or watch engineers on ships with main propulsion
powerupto750kW.
Duringlast10
yearsthenumberofgraduates,who
lefteducationalsystemfromdeckandengineofficers
programmeshasdecreased(seefigure9).
Figure9.Numberofgraduatesofdeckandengineofficers’
programmes(2003‐2013)(MAL2014)
Although the number of graduates of the deck
officers’ programmes shows growing trend since
2010,thenumberofgraduatesoftheship’sengineers’
programmes remains low and not sufficient to keep
engineers’poolinstablecondition.
Figure10.Relativenumberofgraduatesobtainedcertificate
(2003‐2013)(MAL2014)
Figure10showstherelativenumberofgraduates
who obtained watch officers or watch engineers’
certificate. The relative number of deck and engine
officers is similar in the given years. Till 2008 the
relative number of graduates who obtained
qualification certificate on average was 75% and in
recent years this number
has increased to 90%.
Therefore, it can be concluded that large available
numberoffreshgraduatesnegativelyinfluencestheir
employment possibilities. After 2009 the demand
increasedduetodecreaseofthenumberofgraduates
paralleltotheincreaseindemandforofficers.
The number of persons obtaining first watch
officers
(A‐II/1) or watch engineers qualification (A‐
III/1) should be considered as reference point to
determine the inflow into the officer’s pool as the
management level qualifications are based on
operationallevelqualifications.
Comparison between numbers of persons
graduating from deck or engine officer programmes
with numbers of persons obtaining first
officers
qualificationisshowninfigure11.
Figure 11. Graduates of the deck engine officer’s
programmesandinflowintotheactivepoolofofficers(2003
‐2013)(MAL2014)
It can be seen that number of graduates excess
officers’inflowtill2008.After 2008 inflow isgreater
thannumberofgraduatesasnotallgraduatesdecides
toobtainofficer’scertificateofcompetencyintheyear
of graduation. The year after graduation in which
personsobtainedofficers’certificateforpersonswho
graduatedfrom2003‐2008isshownintable6.
251
Table6.Yearwhenofficer’scertificateobtained(graduates
2003‐2008)(MAL2014)
_______________________________________________
Age Yearwhenofficers’certificateobtained
group 0 1 2 3 4 5
_______________________________________________
20‐24 23.4% 28.7% 17.7% 10.6% 5.9% 4.7%
25‐29 41.3% 37.2% 8.3% 1.7% 5.8% 2.5%
30‐34 46.7% 34.8% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 6.5%
35‐39 39.4% 33.0% 11.7% 7.4% 4.3% 1.1%
Total 30.5% 31.1% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.2%
_______________________________________________
Thetable6showsthereasonwhyinflowafter2008
isgreaterthannumberofgraduates.Itisduetofact
that only 30% of graduates on average obtained
officer’s certificate of competency in year of the
graduation. Another 31% of the graduates obtained
officer’s certificate in the next
year.The data does
notgiveclearreasonforthe“laziness”ofgraduates.
Therefore,additionalinformationsuchasinformation
abouttheemploymentpatternsonboard,validityof
otherqualificationcertificates,incontextofgraduated
programme and institution should be analysed.
Starting from 2009 approximately 66% of the
graduatesobtainedcertificatesof
competencyinyear
ofgraduationandadditional25%innextyear.
7 OUTFLOWOFOFFICERS
Figure12.Simplifiedinflowoutflowmodel(authors)
Outflowofthepoolislinkedwithtwofactors(see
figure 12). One factor is retirement when seafarers
reachthe age of 65 as it can be concluded from age
structure of active seafarers. (Only three percent of
activeseafarersareintheageover65.)Otherfactoris
demandfrom
maritime companies ashore which are
willingtoemploypersons with seagoingknowledge
andexperienceandemploymentpossibilitiesinother
industries which can utilise the skills of seafarers in
the same time providing competitive or better
employment conditions.The figure 13 shows
outflowratefordeckandengineofficersfrom2003‐
2013. As outflow year is regarded last year when
certificateofcompetenceisstillvalidincaseifperson
doesnotreceivenewcertificate.
Figure13.Outflowratefordeckandengineofficers(2003‐
2013)(MAL2014)
Fromfigureabovecanbeconcludedthatoutflow
ratefluctuates from yearto yearand the pattern for
deckandengineofficersissimilar.Thefluctuations
dependonthenumberof seafarers in particularage
group and also economic situation in Latvia. The
unemploymentlevelbetweenmeninLatviaisused
as
indicatorwhichcharacteriseseconomicconditions.In
general higher unemployment reflects in lower
outflowratesandreverse.
Bycomparingoutflowratesandofficers’ageitcan
beseenthatofficersaremoremobileinagegroup25‐
29 than in further age groups. Lowest outflow is in
agegroups40
–49andthengraduallyincreases.
Table7.Outflowratesandagegroupsfordeckandengine
officersperyear
_______________________________________________
Age DeckofficersEng.Officers
group 2003‐2008 2009‐2013 2003‐2008 2009‐2013
_______________________________________________
25‐29 2.8%2.4% 4.2%3.3%
30‐34 1.9%1.9% 2.2%1.1%
35‐39 1.5%1.9% 1.4%1.9%
40‐44 1.5%1.1% 1.6%1.0%
45‐49 1.4%1.6% 2.4%1.8%
50‐54 2.1%1.8% 2.2%2.4%
55‐59 4.3%3.8% 2.7%3.5%
60‐64 7.1%6.2% 7.4%6.7%
65‐69 10.8%
15.4%13.0%13.0%
70+ 35.7%28.2%21.3%23.3%
_______________________________________________
Database does not allow to follow up persons’
employment ashore to see if they are still working
withinmaritimeindustryortheyareworkinginother
industries as well as pool of seafarers is larger than
actualpoolofemployedseafarersasitincludesboth
seafarers who are working
on board and seafarers
who only hold valid certificates even they are
workingashore.
Thedataaboutvalidityofcertificatecanbelinked
onlyto the active seafarers who can be theoretically
employedonboardastheyhavevalidcertificateson
hand even if they have already left the pool of
employed seafarers. Outflow rates from employed
pool should be considered to better assess the
influenceoftheexternalfactors.
252
8 CONCLUSIONS
It can be concluded that for present composition of
Latvian seafarers’ pool (persons with valid
qualification certificates) the inflow during past 10
years was not sufficient to keep pool in stable
condition.Thepool of deckofficers can be regarded
as sustainable as the age structure and number
of
entrants is optimal to cover outflow to ashore.
Decrease of ratings can be linked to the decrease of
demand for them and also increase of employment
possibilities ashore, but for engine officers the main
obstacleisinsufficientnumberofgraduates especially
duringpastfiveyears.
Theoutflowofofficers
islinkedtotheagegroup
and economic conditions ashore; therefore, an
analysisofthemultiplefactorsshouldbecarriedout
including employment analysis to validate this
conclusion.
Tomodel seafarers’poolinfuturecarefulanalysis
of the graduates of different maritime education
levels and programmes should be analysed to
determine
differencesinoutflowparameters.
9 FURTHERRESEARCH
The shortage of seafarers is complex issue as trade
and shipping is global therefore it is linked to
different factors like local economic development,
attractionofotherindustrieswhichcaninfluencethe
inflow of youngsters to seafarers’ profession. For
examplethisisthe
caseofPhilippineswherepartof
youngsters’ prefer other courses and programmes
instead of maritime programmes as these
programmesareconsideredtobeequallyfinancially
rewarding. (Magramo, Bernas, Calambuhay, Eler,
2010). This factor is related to the fact that salaries
offered by the same shipping company can have
different attractiveness for
seafarers coming from
different countries. It is predicted that in future the
majority of marine officers worldwide will be
employed from the less developed countries (Glen,
2008;Sencila, Bartuseviciene, Rupšiene , Kalvaitiene,
2010).
Comparison between active seafarers and
employedseafarersshouldbemadetohavecomplete
pictureaboutprocesseswhich
influencethecondition
of the seafarers’ pool.It is prerequisite to
understandtherelationshipsbetweenthosepoolsasit
is obvious that external factors will influence
employedseafarerswhichlaterwillbereflectedinthe
poolofcertifiedseafarers.Theanalysedfactorscanbe
consideredas input for modelling the pool
of active
seafarers, therefore next step is by combing inflow
and outflow data create the model which can be
validatedbyusinghistoricaldata.
The analysis shows that data extracted from the
databaseoftheSeamenRegistryofLatvianMaritime
Administration have considerable value for such
model as they represent
the primary source of bulk
data. Evenif the available data reflects local
processes of Latvian seafarers’ pool the outcome of
research will give possibility to apply gained
knowledgeformodelling seafarers pool processes in
othercountriesandglobally.
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