609
1 INTRODUCTION
As well know the climate change affect the human
activity, the agriculture and the industry as well as
thetourismbusiness(Pezzolietal.2013a).Howevera
lessbibliographywasdevelopedonthe effect of the
climate change on the maritime navigation. In fact,
alsoifsomestudies
were conductedaboutthe effect
oftheclimatechangeonthewindconditionsandthe
wave action, thestudies about themanagement and
the policies are focused principally about the
mitigation of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
generatebythenavigation(Pezzolietal.2013a).
Neverthelessit isevidentan
inadequate
bibliographyabouttheeffectoftheclimatechangeon
the maritime navigation. For this reason a less
literatureispresentaboutthemanagementpolicythat
the Government and the Organizations responsible
fortheportcontrolcanapplytosustaintheshipping
businessduetotheclimatechangeeffects.
There is
the awareness that conditions of
bathymetry,tides,winds,currentsandwavesfornext
decades shall have climate changes impacts on
maritimenavigation. Theriskisunderstood,butonly
in a qualitative way, as composed by Hazard,
ExposureandVulnerability(Pezzolietal.2013a).
Impact of climate changes on the Santos Harbor, São
Paulo State (Brazil)
P.Alfredini&E.Arasaki
PolytechnicSchoolofSaoPauloUniversity,SaoPaulo,SaoPauloState,Brazil
A.Pezzoli
PolytechnicofTorino,EngineeringFaculty,DepartmentofEnvironment,LandandInfrastructureEngineering,Torino,
Italy
C.P.Fournier
Baird&AssociatesCoastalEngineersLtd.,Santiago,Chile
ABSTRACT: Santos Harbor Area (SHA) in Sao Paulo Coastline (Brazil) is the most important marine cargo
transferterminalintheSouthernHemisphere.Alongtermrelativetidallevelvariabilityassessmentshowsa
consistentresponsetorelativesealevelrise.Awavedatabase
WaveWatchIIIwascomparedwithalongterm
wavedata‐basegeneratedbytheERA40‐ECMWF(2003),both localvalidated.Thecurrentbed level of SHA
OuterChannelis‐15.00m(ChartDatumor,inabbreviation,CD),maintainedbydredging.Accordingtothe
cargo throughput forecast, in 2025, the
Access Channel will have to be deepened to level of‐17.00 m. The
feasibilityofthatchoiceisdiscussedfromatechnical,economicalandconceptualnavigationpointofviewin
thatcontext.AdatasetfoundfromascalemodelofthewholeareaofSantosBay,Estuaryandnearbybeaches,
showedtheimpactofmaritimeclimatechangesuponthecoastalarea.Inthepreviousresearchesdevelopedby
theauthors,itwasdemonstratedthatthewaveclimate,thetidesandtidalcurrentsaffectharborandcoastal
structures maintenance, beaches stability, tidal inlet, sediment transport, saline intrusion and wetlands.
Consideringtheincreasing
oftheseahazardsandthehighvaluesoftheinfrastructuresinthatcoastline,itis
necessarytomitigatetherisks.Hence,basedontheresultsobtainedbytheauthors,arehighlightedguidelines
strategiessuggestedforAccessChannelsdimensions,wharvesfree‐board,jettiesdimensions,dredgingrates,
rigidandflexiblelittoraldefenses
andlandprotectionagainstflooding(includingwetlands).
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 7
Number 4
December 2013
DOI:10.12716/1001.07.04.17
610
Astudyof136maritimecitieswithover1million
of inhabitants showed that large populations are
already exposed to coastal flooding in ports areas,
withapproximately40millionpeopleexposedtoa1
in100‐yearcoastal flood event (Nicholls et al. 2008).
Otherstudy(Beckeretal.2012)
identifiedthatclimate
change will disproportionately affect ports and port
basedeconomies.
Forharbors,themostimportantchangeislikelyto
besealevelrisebutothersfactors,includingchanges
to precipitation (both yearly averages and heavy
extreme weather events), will lead to a variety of
impacts. In fact the
climate changes generate storm
surges, inundations and coastal flooding as well as
theincreasingofcoastalhardening,coastalrunoffand
siltation requiring more frequent dredging on the
harborsthatitgeneratestheincreasedgreenhousegas
emissions(Nursey‐Brayetal.2012).
TheSãoPauloState(Brazil)Coastline(Fig.1)has
around
450km.SantosHarboristhemostimportant
in the Southern Hemisphere and the first in Latin
America. In the last decade important oil and gas
reserveswerediscoveredintheSantosOffshoreBasin
andSãoPauloCoastlinereceivedagreatdemandfor
supplier boats harbors for the petroleum industry
(Arasaki et al. 2011). Santos Metropolitan Urban
Region is one of the most important of Brazilian
Coastline,alsoconsideringthetourism.Forthatgreat
economicgrowthscenarioitisveryimportanttohave
well known the main maritime hydrodynamics
forcing processes including climate changes in tidal
levels, currents and waves, considering
the sea
extremeeventshazardsinfluenceinvesseloperations,
coastal erosion, land flooding and estuarine
mangrove wetlands survival as marine ecosystem
(Alfredinietal.2012).
The understanding of these aspects can avoid
damages and potential impacts on coastal areas,
minimizing future costs, making decisions in
mitigation and adaptation and also
show the most
dangerousandcostlyimpacts(Neumannetal.2010).
AccordingtoOsthorstandManz(2012),Pezzoliet
al(2013b)developedanin‐depthstudyaboutthejoint
effectofrainandtidesonthecoastalareawerefound
that the “coastal locations are supposed to be
particularly vulnerable to
effects of climate change.
As a consequence of the high concentration of
infrastructures and sensitive values, potential losses
due to destructive weather events are also very
significant.”
The goal of this paper is to overcome the
contraposition that it emerges between the defense
against the hydraulic risk and the management
to
preserve the environmental protection for nautical
purposes.Moreover,basingontheresultsobtainedby
theauthorsinthepreviouspublishedresearches,the
highlighted guidelines strategies are suggested for
access channels dimensions, wharves free‐board,
jetties and breakwaters dimensions, dredging rates,
rigid and flexible littoral defenses, saline intrusion
and land protection
against flooding (including
wetlands).
Figure1.Sitelocation
611
2 MATERIALANDMETHODS
The IPCC and PIANC recommendations (Pezzoli
et al. 2013a), about the study of the impact on the
climate change on the maritime navigation, are to
focusonthemetoceanvariablessuchaswind,waves,
sealevelandice.
Althoughlarge‐scaleclimaticprocessesaredriven
bytheocean‐atmosphereexchange system,very few
studies are availableon maritime impacts compared
tocontinentalimpactsduetoshorterdataseriesand
fewerhumanconsequences (Pezzoli etal. 2013a and
Pezzolietal.2013b).
Someanalysisabouttheincreasingofthesealevel
was conducted by Bindoff et
al. (2007). The authors
indicates that the global mean sea level increased at
anaveragerateofabout1.7±0.5mm/yearduringthe
twentiethcenturyandthat theratehas beenslightly
higherovertheperiod1961to2003.
In other the climate model prediction elaborated
bytheIPCCpanel
(Pezzolietal.2013a)showsthatthe
global average rate of rise over the Twenty First
centurywillbe25 mm/year,implyingthatmean sea
levelwillbe0.2÷0.5mhigherinthe2100than2000.
In the same time the waves conditions could be
affected by climate
changes in a number of aspect.
Threnberth et al. (2007) reports a statistically
significant trend of increasing annual mean and
wintermeansignificantwaveheight(Hs)forthemid‐
latitudinalNorthAtlanticandNorthPacific,western
subtropical South Atlantic, eastern equatorial Indian
Ocean, and the East China and South China Seas.
They,also,reportstatisticallysignificantdecreasesin
HsforwesternPacifictropics,theTasmanSeaandthe
southIndianOcean.Similartrendsarefoundforthe
99%extremeHswithamaximumincreaseofwinter
extremeHsof0.4mperdecadeintheNorthAtlantic.
The worsening of wave
conditions in the north‐
eastern North Atlantic is most likely connected to a
northward displacement of the storm tracks, with
decreasing wave heights in the southern North
Atlantic.
Following these indications, Pezzoli et al (2013a)
showedhowtheregionalanalysisofthesealeveland
thewaveclimatebecomeimportantas
demonstrated
by Debernard and Roed (2008) and by Sterl et al.
(2009).
Considering the lack of bibliography and
researches developed in this topic in the South
Atlanticandinpa rticularalongthecoastallineofthe
South of the Brazil, it was activated in 2010 a joint
project called “Rede
Litoral”
(http://www.redelitoral.ita.br/).
The Research Unit, based in the São Paulo
University – Polytechnic School, has the goal of the
researchfocusedonthestudyofwaveandtidallevel
analysis, maritime climate change, navigation’s
strategyandimpactonthecoastaldefensesalongthe
SãoPauloCoastlineHarborAreas(Brazil).
As well
indicated in the Introduction, this paper
summarizes the research developed by the Research
UnitoftheSãoPauloUniversity(Alfredinietal.2012,
Alfredini et al. 2013, Arasaki et al. 2011,
COASTLAB082008,Dovetta2012,Pezzolietal.2013a
and Pezzoli et al. 2013b) concentrating on the
managementpolicies.
This
study was developed analyzing three
different aspects of the problems (sea level, wave
climate and sediments transport), apparently distant
from each other, but, in fact, coordinated as well
showsbythePIANC(Pezzolietal.2013a).
The long term tidal level variability (high tide,
meansealevelandlowtide)assessment
considering
the Santos Dock Company (CDS) tidal variability
(Highest High Water or HHW, Mean Sea Level or
MSLandLowestLowWaterorLLW)forthelastsix
decades, comprising three moon nodal cycles (58
years), shows a consistentresponse of relative sea
level rise. Those figures were of similar
magnitude
thantheotherlongterm tidal seriesrecordedinSão
PauloCoastline,atthetidalgaugesofCananeia(1955
‐ 1992), according to Franco et al. (2007), 200 km
southward, and at Ubatuba (1954 – 2003), 200 km
northward(seeFig.1).
Alongtermwavedata‐base(1957‐2002)
wasmade
byacomparisonbetweenwave’sdatamodeledbythe
Europeandeepwaterdatabasemeteorologicalmodel
ERA‐40 Project (2003) and measured wave’s data in
theyears1982‐1984byacoastalbuoyinSantoslittoral
(São Paulo State, Brazil). Calibration coefficients
accordingtoangularsectorsofwave’sdirection
were
obtained by the comparison of the instrument data
with the modeled ones, and applied to the original
scenarios. Validation checking procedures with
instrumentalmeasurementsofstormsurgesmadein
other years than 1982‐1984 shows high level of
confidence.Finallythesignificantheight(Hs)andthe
peak period (Tp),
obtained by the “virtually” data‐
base (1957‐2002), were analyzed to evaluate the
possibleeffectoftheclimatechangeonthesea statein
point S 23.5°; W 45.5° for a water depth of 18 m
(Dovetta2012).
In other a long term (Jan 1st 1980 to August 6th
2012) deep
water wave climate database was
employed (http://www.ondasdobrasil.com) to
develop an assessment of the characteristics and
historicalfrequencyofextremestormevents(pointS
26°; W 45°, water depth 1,521 m).The database
includesdefinitionsofsignificantwaveheight(Hm0),
spectral peak wave period (Tp) and spectral
directions (Alfredini et al.
2013).The deepwater
hindcast was developed with the aid of the
WaveWatchIII model (Tolman 2009) calibrated with
Topex Satellite data along Brazilian coastline and,
subsequently, validated with a directional sea buoy.
Finallya scale model representing thearea included
betweentheSantosBay,Estuary, SantosHarborand
nearby beaches of
Santos (COASTLAB 2006),
modelingtidalcyclesand waveclimate(Fig.2), was
used to evaluate beach erosion and the land and
mangrovewetlandsflooding(Fig.3).
612
Figure2.ScalemodelofSantosBay,EstuaryandHarborandnearbybeaches
Figure3.Scalemodelstormsurgetest:viewofthebeachscour
3 RESULTSANDDISCUSSION
Thelongtermtidal level datavariabilityassessment
of the Santos Dock Company tidal gauge, which
measured water level fluctuations from 1944 using
thesameVerticalDatum, providedthepossibilityto
haveatleast3lunardeclinationperiodsof18.61years
each one. The forecasting trends of
HHW and LLW
dependlargely upon meteorologicalforcing, beyond
sea level rise (Alfredini et al. 2013). The use of 19
yearsmobileaveragefittings,from1970to2007 and
from1989to2007,areconsistentshowingimpressive
increasing gradients of relative sea level rise, with
centurygradientratesshownin
Table1andFig.4.
Accordingtothatscenario,the scalemodelstudy
showed the flooding of around 50% of the Santos
Estuary mangroves (COASTLAB 2006) and around
100 m of the beaches (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3), with the
corresponding wave scour. Also in the last century,
Santos Harbor wharves
free‐board (150 cm) lost
around35cm.
Theanalysisofthewaveclimatechange,usingthe
calibratedERA‐40and WaveWatchIII data‐basefor
the 1980‐2002 period shows an increasing trend
(linearandmobileaverage)intheHsandTpvalues
(Fig. 5 and Fig 6).
It is known that the satellite
facilities data after 1979 are more accurate for those
assessments.
According to the linear trend, which is similar
with the 5 year mobile average, it was possible to
forecastanHsincreasingsince 1980 (1.87 m indeep
water and 1.14 in shallow water) till
2080 from 0.25
(WaveWatch III deep water) to 0.45 cm (ERA 40
calibrated shallow water). It is well known that the
wave energy perhorizontal area and the long shore
sand transport in the surf zone of waves is
proportional to the square of wave height, meaning
an increasing around
of 100% per century. Also
according to the classical Hudson’s Formula, the
rubble mound weight of ripraps, breakwaters and
jettiesareproportionaltoHs3,mea ning anincreasing
armour weight for the new design scenario or an
increasinginthedamagerateandmaintenancecosts
ofthoseexistingstructures.
The consequences for
navigation purposes,
considering depths and channel widths, are very
complexandaresummarizedinFig.7.Forinstance,
according to the width criteria of PIANC guidelines
itwill be necessary toenlargeSantos Harbor Access
Channel of two design vessel beam due to the
increasinginwavesparameters.
613
Figure4.SantosHarbortidaltrends(1952‐2007)
Figure5.SHAsignificantwaveheighttrend accordingtoERA‐40andWaveWatchIIIhindcast(1980‐2012)
Figure6.SHAspectralpeakwaveperiodtrendaccordingtoERA‐40andWaveWatchIIIhindcast(1980‐2012)
614
Figure7Frameofhydrodynamicsforimpactsoncoastalandestuarinesportareasandmitigatorymeasuresandstructures
Table1.19years mobile averagerates cm/century. Source:
Alfredinietal.(2013)
Table2classifiesSantoswaveclimateaccordingto
PIANC (1997) criteria for Outer Channels nautical
projects (L: wave length; L
pp: vessel length between
perpendiculars;B:vesselbeam).
Table2.SHAadditionalaccessChannelwidthaccordingto
longtermwaveclimate(1980‐2012)
TheSHAPilot’sAssociation(Alfredinietal.2013)
hasmadecalculationswithaPanamaxContainerShip
(Displacement:70,055DWT5000TEUs;L
pp:275m,B:
32.18m,T:13.00) for thesecondclassofTable2.At
6.5knots,recommendedvesselvelocityattheAccess
Channel,theincreaseofsquatandmeandraught,in
confinedshallowwaterslikethose(depthlesserthan
1.2timesthevesseldraught),is0.60m.Thedraught’s
increase,due to a minimumheelof1°,mustalso be
included,correspondingto0.37mandthepitchof0.5
m due toa 1 m waveheight. Considering an under
keel clearance of 0.30 m with the sand/mud soft
bottom, the overall depth necessary for a safe
navigation
(ODSN)atthetidallevelof0(CD)is:
ODSN(0)=13.00+0.60+0.37+0.5+0.3=14.77m [1]
Consideringa2mofwave heightandanheelof
2°,theODSN,foratidallevelof0,resultstobeequal
at 15.65 m. Hence, such a vessel would have time
limiting
operationduetorestrictivedepthconditions
attidallevel0(CD)inthecurrentchannel–15.00m
(CD) dredged depth, mainly in the months from
March to October, and in some cases from April to
September only would be possible tocross the SHA
OuterChannelusinghightides.
According to Alfredini et al. (2013), two
engineering solutions are possible, necessitating an
understanding of the coastal engineering issues
(wavesandsedimenttransport)andanawarenessof
themaritimeclimatechange.
The first one is the dredging maintenance
procedure.Usinghistoricaldata,from1963,whenthe
OuterChannel SHA dredging was
initiated,to2010,
60 million m
3
were dredged to maintain an average
bedlevel–13.00m(CD),atanestimatedcostofUS$
0.5billion(presentcost).
SHA Outer Access Channel, in the maritime bar,
has11,560m(Area1)andtheInner Access Channel
615
(Area2),intheestuaryregion,hasmore13,040m(see
Fig.2).ThisAccessChannelhasbeendeepenedfrom
February2010toJanuary2011.Fig.8,Fig.9andFig.
10 show the volumes of capital and maintenance
dredging in the maritime and estuarine areas. The
period 2010/2011 was
characterized by strong storm
surgesinthewintermonthsandbyheavyrainsinthe
summer months, hence corresponding to high
longshoreandfluvialsedimenttransport.
Figure8. Capitalandmaintenancedredgingvolume(“insitu”m
3
)intheSHAOuterAccessChannelandtidalrecord(2010‐
2013)
Figure9.Capitalandmaintenancedredgingvolume(“insitu”m
3
)intheSHAInnerAccessChannel(Area2)andraininthe
watershedcontributingtotheestuarineharborarea(2010‐2013)
Figure10.Capitalandmaintenancedredgingvolume(“insitu”m
3
)intheSHAInnerAccessChannel(Area2)andfluvial
sedimenttransportfromthewatershedcontributingtotheestuarineharborarea(2010‐2013)
616
4 CONCLUSIONS
AboutSHAcanbesummarizedthat:
The increasing of the sea level rise is included
between50to100cm/centuryinthenextdecades
inagreementwiththeIPCCscenario(Pezzolietal.
2013a).
The increasing of the sea level rise generates a
flooding of around
50% of the Santos Estuary
mangroves and around 100m of the beaches as
welldemonstratebythesimulationofthephysical
model.
The climate change impacts on the increasing of
theH
sfora0.45minthenext100yearsaswellas
inthepeakperiodofthewave.
This analysis confirmed how the system is to be
consideredasacomplexone,wheretheeffectsonthe
channel,jettiesandharborstructuresaregeneratedby
sea level rise, the
wave climate and the flooding
jointlywiththesedimenttransport.
The consequences for navigation purposes,
considering depths and channel widths are very
complex and are summarized in Fig.7, elaborated
considering the obtained results and the related
assumptions.
AssaidintheIntroduction,thepapersummarizes
ten years of research about the
impact of maritime
climate changes in the São Paulo State Coastline,
mainly in the Santos area, where there is the major
amount of hydrodynamics data. It was possible to
reachthegoalofquantifyingthemagnitudeorderof
tides and wave changes and to correlate them with
theimpacton
maritime structures and theproposed
mitigatorymeasuresandstructures.
Based on the quantitative assessment made it is
possibletopresentthefollowingstrategicplan(Table
3)focusingonthenavigationandcoastal defensesfor
SãoPauloStateCoastline(Pezzolietal.2013a).
Table3. Strategic plan focusing on the navigation and
coastaldefenses
Considering the awareness about the importance
ofclimatechangesimpactsinacoastalareaproneto
extreme flood and erosion events, the structural
solution (i.e. two jetties as shows in Fig.11),
maintenance dredging (flexible solution), or non‐
interventioninthewaterwayareimportantbecause:
1 Thereisanoverallsea
levelrisingtrend.
2 LLWhasthehighestrateoflineartidalrising.
3 Thereisanoveralltidalrangereduction.
4 Thetidalprismwillchangeandthetidalcurrents
velocity should increase if the HHW levels will
drown large fluvial areas, compensating the
velocity reduction due to the
tidal range
decreasing.
5 Considering the issues above, the bar depth
shouldincrease.
6 The overall rise of the sea will produce more
coastal erosion and littoral drift in opposition to
theoutcomeofissue5.
7 Itispossibletoobserveageneralsignificantheight
and average period wave increasing
for annual
averaged figures. Hence, should be a trend to
increaselittoraldrift,reducingbardepth.
Figure11.Exampleofapossiblestructuralsolutionforthe
protectionoftheharborentrance
Inother,mergingtheresultsoftheclimatological
analysis with the result of the physical model, it is
possible to made other assumption about the
management policies of the SHA. Indeed, there are
someareasofmud,whichmaybefluidandsufficient
to consider the nautical bottom concept (PIANC
1997),
in practice for mud density lower than 1250
kg/m3.Inthesecasesitispossibletoreducetheunder
keelclearance.
Awareness with climate changes impacts
importance for the intervention’s plan must be
consideredtoobtainafinalbalancedsolutionamong
structures,dredgingandnon‐structuralmeasuresfor
nauticalmaster
plan.
It is important to recognize that great natural
events are not avoidable, but great disasters are, as
theancientGreekAristotle(384‐322B.C.)said:“Itis
probablethattheimprobablewillhappen”.
617
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This paper has the financial support of CAPES,
HumanResourcesImprovementAgencyofBrazilian
Government.
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