454
It means that these markets, together with other
markets such as: transport, capital or labor ones,
influence indirectly the real sphere of activity of the
maritime transport sector, determining its efficiency
aswellasthevirtueoffreightmarketmechanism.As
aresult,theirmechanism,autonomousinitsnature,is
subject to relatively strong impact of other
autonomousregulatoryforces,induced,infact,bythe
market‐oriented environment of the global maritime
transport sector. This means, de facto, that the
autonomous mechanism in this transport sector is
fairly comprehensive in its character. However, as
such,duetoregulatoryweaknesses,accounts
forthe
globalpublic regulatory mechanism. The complexity
of the nowadays existing autonomous regulatory
system, along with all interactions occurring among
all its components and especially between demand
and supply on commodity and freight markets, are
brieflypresentedbelow.
Theinternationalseaborne trade as an absolutely
dominantcomponentofworldmerchandise
tradeand
worldmaritimetransport that remains the backbone
of international trade and global economy, has
supportedstronglynotonlytheongoingprocessesof
globalization but also the rapid development of the
global supply chains and networks. Both are fueled
bytheworldeconomicgrowth,i.e. increasingworld
production and
consumption stimulating GDP on a
global scale and consequently, merchandise trade.
The last one, due to highly advanced processes of
deregulation of economies and liberalization of all
types of markets on a global scale, has grown very
fastinrecentdecades,leavingfarbehindothermacro
parametersreflectingthosetendencies.
In
2011,thevolumeofinternationalseabornetrade
reached8.72billiontons.Itmeansthatalmost80per
cent of world merchandise trade by volume (tones)
and more than 90 per cent in ton‐miles have been
carriedbysea.
2
In2011worldseabornetradegrewby
4percent,whereastheglobaleconomy,measuredin
terms of the world GDP, expanded only by 2.7 per
cent (compared with 4.1 per cent in 2010). Such a
significant slowdown was caused among others by
decelerated industrial production in the OECD
countries
which grew at modest 2.1 per cent (down
from8.5percentin2010)andsharpdropintheworld
merchandisetrade.Growthintheworldmerchandise
trade by volume expanded at an annual rate
(2011/2010)of5.9percentascomparedwith13.9per
cent in the previous year.
3
Referring to WTO rough
estimates, deceleration in the global trade continued
in 2012 and the world merchandise trade volumes
expanded presumably only by 2.5 per cent, rate far
belowthe6percentaveragerecordedovertheperiod
of1990‐2011.
4
2
Ton‐miles is a unit which offers a measure of real demand for
shippingservicesandtonnageinvolvedintheirmanufacturingasit
takesintoaccountdistance,whichdeterminestrueshipavailability.
Compare:2012. Review of Maritime Transport 2012. Report by the
UNCTAD secretariat. UNTAD/RMT/2012, New York and Geneva
2008,
p.4‐17.
3
Themerchandisetradeinvalueterms(basedonexport)increased
however,duetothegrowingcommoditypricesin2011,by19per
centand reached$ 18.2 trillion.In 2010 itaverage annualgrowth
rateaccountedfor22percent.Ibidem,p.19‐21
4
Ibidem,p.19,21
Therecentgrowthintradingcommodityvolumes
transportedbysea,4.0percentincreaseyear‐on‐year,
was not very much impressive, despite the still
existing economic downturn, higher than the one
recorded in the last decades. Indeed, since 1970 the
annual average growth rate of the world seaborne
tradehas
beenestimatedat3.2percent.
5
In2012,the
volume of cargoes transported by sea was 2.4 times
higher than in 1990. After all, its growth dynamics
was still more than two times lower than the world
merchandise export. Its annual average growth rate
accounted for 8.7 per cent over the period of 2000‐
2012.
Taking
intoaccountthat:
1 globalseaborneshipmentsaregrowingintandem
with the world merchandise trade (measured on
exportbase)aswellastheworldGDPand
2 currently existing barriers to development of the
maineconomiesbeingthetriggerofglobalgrowth
willhavetobesmoothlyovercomeinthe
nexttwo
years and the world production and trade will
entertheirpreviouspathofgrowth;
one may assume that in 2020 the seaborne trade is
likely to increase by 36‐40 per cent as compared to
2010, reaching 12.0‐12.5 billion tones.
6
By such
dynamics, the volume of goods carried by sea can
exceedin2031twicethelevelreachedin2010.
Therefore,theinternationalforecastsregardingthe
development of seaborne trade and freight markets
on a global scale in the next decades, despite the
envisaged economic turbulences, are as previously
assumed
optimistic.Theyarebasedonassumption,as
itwasmentionedearlier,thatdespitegrowingglobal
risks and uncertainties, the seaborne trade will
increase in tandem with the world economy
measuredinthegrowingworldGDPandproduction
aswellasglobalmerchandisetrade.Itisassumedthat
the correlations between all
these factors remain in
thepredictedperiod moreorlessatthesamelevelas
theywereovertheperiodof1990‐2011.Atthattime
(1990=100) the global merchandise export grew 3.1
times what corresponded with the dynamics of
seabornetrade (2.72 times),whereas the world GDP
was enlarged
1.78 times and industrial production
only1.41times.
7
Itisobviousthattheserelationsaredeterminedby
many other economic factors inherited in other
segments of the global economy which influence
significantlytheworldmaritimetransport,too.They
originate from other type of markets, e.g. capital or
energy ones as well as primary markets themselves.
The main factors
here include: rising energy prices
(bunker) with their potential implications for
transportcostsandtrade,soaringnon‐oilcommodity
prices, the uncertainties on global financial markets,
etc. All of them, as relatively strong regulatory
instruments,willinfluencetheglobalfreightmarkets,
boththeirdemandandsupplyside,determiningthe
5
Insight& Analysis. World Trade Service Brochure Global Insight
2011,p.2
6
A.Stachniol, The expectedoverallimpacton trade from a mari‐
timeMarketBased‐Mechanism(MBM),March2011,s.2
7
WTO2011.Tradegrowthtoeasein2011butdespite2010record
surge, crisis hangover persists. World Trade 2010. Prospects for
2011,PressReleases/6287,April2011,p.5