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448
Figure17b.Bottomvelocitystreamsforexistingcontainer
carriers
4 CONCLUSION
Thefuturewillbringeverlargerandmorecontainer
vessels, Ro‐Ro traffic will remain heavy and likely
increase,andpassengervesselsseemlikelytogrowin
sizeas well.The Portof Koperestimatesthatit will
havetoincreasecargooperationsfromthecurrent16‐
18 million
tons to 30‐40 million tons in five to ten
years, doubling the cargo capacity and nearly
doublingthenumberofvesselscalling.
Foreachalterationattheprecisepointwherethe
land meets the sea at a port, a number of
considerations are likely to arise. The two concerns
discussedherearesafety andpotentialenvironmental
harm. Not for the first time, we demonstrated that
ship handling simulators can help reconstruct real
domain thrust conditions in a variety of
circumstances.Anumberofcarefulsimulationswere
necessary to determine the best, that is, safest and
mostcost‐efficient,meansfor
expandingaberthand
channel,theextentofdredgingrequired,andthebest
approachforlargevessels.
Theenvironmentalfactorcoveredhereisonethat
doesnotseemtoattractmuchresearchasofyet–the
effect of vessel manoeuvres in and near ports in
regard to bottom wash
and re‐sedimentation. The
effectsofcurrentshippingtrendsontheseabedmust
beunderstoodwith a long termviewto eliminating
environmentaldamage,inthiscaseparticularlyasit
mayaffectcross‐bordersedimentation.
It is thus far unclear whether the maritime
transport business will reach a period of
something
like stasis, when ships are of optimal size for each
type of cargo, when ports have reached optimal or
maximalcapacity,and,perhapsmostimportantofall,
when all negative effects on the environment have
been eliminated. Until then, perhaps every change
must attract careful scientific scrutiny, so that
the
potential harmful effects of growth in wealth are
mitigated.
NOTE
Partofthepaperistheresultofworkperformedwith
national ARRS project titled “Influence of circulation
and maritime traffic on sediment transport in wide open
bays”numberL2‐4147(D)
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