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4 THE EFFECT OF LACK OF ENC COVERAGE
Previous studies have developed comprehensive risk
models based on Bayesian Networks and spreadsheet
models for accidents related to navigational failure
(Norway 2005). The risk models developed in these
previous studies were utilized also in the current
study in order to assess the effect of holes in the
ENC coverage along ship trades. In these risk
analyses, the frequency of grounding due to
navigational error (powered grounding) was
estimated based on the definition of three types of
waters, i.e. open waters, coastal waters and narrow
waters. The effect of ECDIS and hence of the extent
of ENC coverage will be different for these types of
waters. For the purpose of this study, the types of
water are defined in the following way:
− Open waters: > 5 nm from shore
− Coastal waters: 2 - 5 nm from shore
− Narrow waters: < 2 nm from shore
In order to investigate the ENC coverage along
the selected routes, the IHO global ENC catalogue
has been used to assess the availability of suitable
ENCs together with detailed route descriptions and
estimates of the time of voyage for each of the
selected routes. An additional three day in port has
been assumed for each trade.
The effect of holes in the ENC coverage along a
route will be less risk reduction attributable to
ECDIS. In areas where suitable ENCs are not
available, no benefits from ECDIS are assumed. I.e.
no risk reduction is ascribed to ECDIS in raster
mode. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed
that the effect of such holes is proportional to the
ratio of the route in coastal and narrow waters where
ENC coverage is insufficient, i.e. the ratio of the
route closer to shore than 5 nautical miles where
suitable ENC is not available. Thus, the net risk
reducing effects of ECDIS, ΔR
NET
will be reduced
accordingly.
( )
ENCNoENC
CN
ENC
ECDIS
R
NET
R
+
×∆=∆
(1)
In equation (1), ΔR
NET
denotes the net risk
reducing effect of ECDIS for the selected route,
ΔR
ECDIS
denotes the risk reducing effect of ECDIS
for areas where suitable ENCs are available (about
38% according to previous studies (Denmark &
Norway 2006), assuming dual ECDIS). ENC
CN
denotes the distance along the route in coastal or
narrow waters with suitable ENC coverage and
(ENC + No ENC)
CN
is the total distance along the
route in coastal or narrow waters. These distances
have been investigated for the 11 selected routes.
It is noted that this study only accounts for the
effect of grounding risk reduction. It is
acknowledged that also other navigational risks may
be reduced, e.g. related to collision, and the
estimates of risk reduction used in this study should
therefore be regarded as conservative.
It is considered out of scope of this paper to
present the investigation of each of the eleven routes
in detail. The investigation of one of the routes will
be explained in more detail as a proxy, and it is
noted that the remainder of the routes are
investigated in a similar manner. Hence, in the
following, the investigation of the route between
Yanbu, Saudi Arabia and Barcelona, Spain will be
outlined.
4.1 Examining the Yanbu – Barcelona trade
The route between Yanbu in Saudi Arabia and
Barcelona, Spain, covers about 2100 nautical miles,
from the Red Sea, through the Suez Canal and past
the south tips of Sicily and Sardinia to the west coast
of Spain. 575 nautical miles of this route is closer to
shore than 20 nautical miles (27%), 187 nautical
miles is closer to 5 nautical miles (9%) and 96
nautical miles is closer than 2 nautical miles (4%).
The route is illustrated in Figure 4, and the ENC
coverage for this route is illustrated in Figure 5. The
characteristics of the route together with the ENC
coverage are presented in Table 2. The voyage
excluding time in port is estimated to take about 6
days.
The characteristics of this route have been used to
obtain the probability of critical course per year. The
corresponding annual grounding frequencies for
ships sailing this trade are presented in Table 3,
including estimates with and without ECDIS. It is
noted that for this particular route, the ENC coverage
is already quite extensive, and there are no
anticipated increase in ENC coverage within 2010.
Fig. 4. Route from Yanbu to Barcelona