1 INTRODUCTION

The Coast Guard of the Republic of Croatia

(hereinafter referred to as CGRC) is a military

organisation authorised to deal with civilians at sea

and is a part of the Croatian Navy (hereinafter

referred to as CN). In October 2007 the Act on the

CGRC was passed which entered into force on 1

November 2007.The Act consists of 11 parts and the

total of 48 articles and establishes the CGRC and

determines the organisation and scope of work,

authorisations, jobs and tasks thereof [1]. The CGRC is

an autonomous vessel unit whose headquarters and

first division are stationed in the barracks “Admiral

flote Sveto Letica-Barba” in Split, and naval forces of

the second division are operationally stationed in

Pula. The CGRC carries out its activities through its

operational naval forces composed of, as it was

mentioned above, the first and second division [14].

The surface of the Adriatic Sea under the

sovereignty of the Republic of Croatia (hereinafter

referred to as RC) (inland waters and territorial sea)

amounts to 31,757 km², whereas on a great part of the

Adriatic Sea, outside of the state territory, the RC

exercises certain sovereign rights and jurisdiction (the

Influence of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Execution of

Tasks by the Coast Guard of the Republic of Croatia

M. Dedo

, T. Sunko

, L. Matijašević

& I. Šantić

Croatian Defence Academy, Zagreb, Croatia

Croatian Navy, Split, Croatia,

ABSTRACT: COVID-19 Pandemic, or better known as Coronavirus pandemic, is a current new disease of

respiratory ways, and adjustment to life and work in the pandemic conditions is a challenge all organisations in

the world, including military ones, have to face with. This paper analyses the influence of the COVID-19

pandemic on the intensity and implementation of surveillance and protection of national interests of the

Republic of Croatia within the jurisdiction of the Coast Guard of the Republic of Croatia. A special attention is

dedicated to determining how capable the Coast Guard of the Republic of Croatia is in executing all tasks in the

pandemic circumstances. The analysis is carried out by comparing selected activities the Coast Guard of the

Republic of Croatia carried out in 2020 with activities carried out in the period from 2015 to 2019. In the analysis

of the effects which the COVID-9 pandemic had on the intensity and implementation of surveillance and

protection of national interests of the Republic of Croatia within the jurisdiction of the Coast Guard, the

following performed activities were observed: number of airplane flights, airplane fuel consumption, number

of flight hours, number of engaged vessels, number of nautical miles sailed by vessels, number of registered

vessel engine working hours, vessel fuel consumption, number of issued mandatory misdemeanour warrants.

This paper has a goal to prove that the Coast Guard of the Republic of Croatia, having adjusted to a great extent

to new operational circumstances, carries out all its tasks, and this can be best seen through a number of issued

misdemeanour warrants, which means that the pandemic didn’t have a decisive negative impact on the work of

the Coast Guard of the Republic of Croatia.

http://www.transnav.eu

the International Journal

on Marine Navigation

and Safety of Sea Transportation

Volume 16

Number 1

March 2022

DOI: 10.12716/1001.16.01.08

area over which the RC exercises certain sovereign

rights and jurisdiction amounts to 25,207 km²). It is

necessary to supervise such a huge area which is an

important economic resource of the RC in an

organised and efficient way, and CGRC’s basic jobs

and tasks are to protect interests, sovereign rights of

the RC and implementation of the Croatian

jurisdiction in the mentioned area [4]. In the context of

COVID-19 Pandemic, control over this area had to be

increased since the disruption of internal movement

was nonetheless accompanied by a more robust

collective closure of the EU’s external borders, with

incoming travel banned for non-EU citizens/residents

[11]. The CGRC is the main force in the protection of

interests over the part of the sea, sea bed and

underground where the RC exercises its sovereign

rights and it can provide assistance in the maritime

area under the sovereignty of the RC to harbour

masters, maritime police and customs if it is

considered necessary [3].

The CGRC is an integral part of the CN (Article 3,

paragraph 1 of the Act on the CGRC) [16]. Its

organisation was passed by the President of the RC at

the proposal of the Government of the RC (Article 3

paragraph 2 of the Act on the CGRC) [2]. The Minister

of Defence of the RC stipulates the organisation of

work and other issues related to the work of the

CGRC by way of an ordinance. Provisions of the acts

laying down the service in the Armed Forces of the

Republic of Croatia (hereinafter referred to as CAF) as

well as provisions of the acts laying down rights,

obligations and responsibilities of civil servants will

be applied on members of the CGRC in issues not

regulated by the Act on the CGRC. In the defence

system, the chain-of-command goes from the supreme

commander to the CAF, and through the Ministry of

Defence to the CN command. Then it goes down

through the CGRC command to the first division of

the CGRC in Split and to the second division of the

CGRC in Pula, and also to Croatian Air Force units

based in Zemunik and Divulje which are under the

command of the CGRC’s operational command.

Pursuant to the Act on the Coast Guard of the

Republic of Croatia and the Decision of the Republic

of Croatia, the Central Coordinating Committee for

Surveillance and Protection of the Maritime Rights

and Interests of the Republic of Croatia was set up

within the system for protection and surveillance of

maritime interests, as well as the Central Coordination

Expert Body and Regional Coordination Units at the

level of seven littoral counties. Considering technical

assets having at its disposal, the CGRC should be

taken as the most adequate component of that

authorised body, capable of implementing the

Croatian jurisdiction for the purpose of surveillance of

maritime fisheries in the economic zone [6].

Within the system of surveillance and protection of

Croatian maritime interests, at the bottom of the

chain-of-command there are Regional Coordination

Units headed by harbour masters and they also

include representatives of the CGRC. These units are

supervised by the Expert Body which is subordinated

to the Central Coordination, and the Government of

the RC is at the top. The chairperson of the Expert

Body is the CGRC commander, whereas the role the

Central Coordination chairperson rotates annually

between the Minister of Defence of the RC, Minister of

the Sea, Transport and Infrastructure and Minister of

the Interior. Depending on tasks it carries out, the

CGRC is responsible to different ministries and state

administration bodies [15].

1.1 COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic appeared for the first time at

the end of December 2019 in the city of Wuhan in the

Chinese province of Hubei. In January 2020 an

epidemic developed in the P.R. China and spread all

around the world. It was actuated by until then little

known SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In order to prevent

spreading in countries without efficient healthcare

systems, on 30 January 2020 the World Health

Organisation (hereinafter referred to as WHO)

declared a global emergency, on 9 February 2020 the

number of registered deaths exceeded the total

number of deaths in the SARS 2002-2003 pandemic. In

the WHO’s report of 26 February 2020, it was for the

time reported that there were more new cases of

infection registered out of China then in China itself.

United States of America’s (hereinafter referred to

as U. S.) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

received notification of the first case of laboratory-

confirmed COVID-19 in the United States on January

22, 2020. As of May 30, an aggregate 1,761,503 U.S.

COVID-19 cases and 103,700 deaths had been

reported [13]. Starting from 28 February 2020 the Who

reported evaluated risks at the global level as “very

high”, in comparison to the previously reported

“high” risk. On 11 March 2020 the WHO declared the

previous epidemic a pandemic, which was the first

one after the swine flu pandemic. By the end of March

2021, in the world there were 136 million confirmed

cases of infected people, and over 2.9 million of

confirmed deaths. The virus caught the global

community off guard, and its future course is still

highly unpredictable [7]. The first patient infected by

SARS_CoV-2 virus was detected in Croatia on 25

February 2020. According to the Croatian Health

Insurance Fund since 25 July there have been 362,621

registered cases in the RC, and so far 2,264,668 people

have been tested for the coronavirus [18].

1.2 Armed Forces of the Republic of Croatia in pandemic

conditions

On 27 January 2021 the Chief of Defence of the CAF

and the Military Representative at the NATO and EU

attended the NATO Military Committee meeting. The

meeting was presided by the Chairman of the NATO

Military Committee, and the Chiefs of Defence of the

Member States discussed about NATO operations,

missions and activities, NATO’s strategic concept and

responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

On this occasion, the NATO Secretary General

stressed the importance of further strengthening of

allied capabilities, modernisation and boosting

readiness of the Member States armed forces so that

they could respond to all kinds of challenges in the

near future [17].

Military forces across Europe have scaled back

operations and imposed stricter rules on personnel to

try to stem the spread of the coronavirus among staff.

Preventing the virus’ proliferation among the military

is important both for national security and because

specialist army, navy and airforce units are being

drafted in to help governments tackle the virus in

many countries. Germany mobilised 15,000 soldiers to

help local authorities tackle the crisis, for example,

while Poland activated thousands of troops to patrol

streets under lockdown, disinfect hospitals and

support border control, its defence ministry said [12].

Since the society in its entirety had to adapt to new

conditions of life and work, and this has become an

on-going process, the military’s response, either in

providing support to other state institutions or in

carrying out its regular tasks, to the coronavirus

pandemic thus far highlights the continuing durability

of longstanding notions of civilian control of the

military and the military’s ability to provide aid [9].

The CAF and CN also had to issue several instructions

and orders intended to reduce the possibility of

spreading the virus to the minimum when carrying

out regular tasks. The CGRC, as an integral part of the

CN, has also adapted to carrying out of its basic tasks

(protection of sovereign rights and jurisdiction of the

RC, spreading of mass destruction weapons,

suppression of piracy and other types of usage of the

open sea for contentious purposes, navigation safety,

search and rescue at sea, protection of marine

environment, habitats and cultural goods and control

of sea fishery) to the pandemic conditions, so the

surveillance and protection of rights and interests of

the RC at sea is being conducted in line with the new

circumstances. In other words, the stress has been put

on new vessels having fewer crew members and

bigger effectiveness in one-day or shorter sailings

regardless of distance and sea conditions. With

continuous and targeted training of soldiers (in

accordance with the new work circumstances in the

pandemic conditions and reduced intensity of overall

CAF’s activities), the focus has been shifted from

quantity to quality of conducted activities. Also fewer

crew members reduced possibility of accumulating

stress of possible exposure, by forgoing stay-at-home

recommendations and engaging with support

missions, these service members increased their risk

of infection [8] and experienced the psychosocial

stress of possible exposure. Given that some worked

in environments where social distancing was difficult,

the anxiety regarding possible exposure was

noteworthy [10]. The abovementioned smaller vessels,

concerning the type and autonomy at sea, are the right

solution for carrying out a part of CGRC tasks in this

new situation. The COVID-19 pandemic reduced a

number of sailings and tasks in 2020. However, the

CGRC showed a high level of capability and swiftly

adapted to the new work circumstances in a way that

the number of issued misdemeanour warrants

increased, and the pandemic in this regard didn’t

have a decisive negative impact on the work of the

CGRC, although significant challenges for deployed

service members in the face of this pandemic remain

[5]. In short, it had an impact on the reduced number

of sailings and tasks, but not on the number of

executed inspections, which will be proved and

presented later in this paper.

2 DATA AND METODOLOGY

In the analysis of the influence of the COVID-19

pandemic on the intensity and implementation of

surveillance and protection of national interests of the

Republic of Croatia within the jurisdiction of the

CGRC the following data were observed: number of

airplane flights, airplane fuel consumption, number of

flight hours, number of engaged vessels, number of

nautical miles sailed by vessels, number of registered

vessel engine working hours, vessel fuel

consumption, number of issued mandatory

misdemeanour warrants. Annual data from the period

from 2015 to 2020 were used in this analysis. The data

were collected from the Annual Reports on the

implementation of the established policy, plans and

regulations in relation to surveillance and protection

of rights and interests of the RC at sea made by the

Central Coordinating Committee for Surveillance and

Protection of the Maritime Rights and Interests of the

RC for the years 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020

and are shown in Table 1 [19–24].

Table 1 Annual data on the activities conducted by the

CGRC

_______________________________________________

Year

_______________________________________________

Conducted 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

activity

Number of 54 57 109 52 50 50

airplane

flights

Airplane 16,350 17,004 55,318 20,775 14,938 15,736

fuel

consumption

in litres

Number of 82.07 73.10 176.90 82.70 70.70 70.70

flight

hours

Number of 101 93 92 75 103 88

engaged

vessels

Number of 5341.5 5834.9 4981.1 5687.5 4336.9 8661.0

nautical

miles

sailed

by vessels

Number of 603.56 592.40 528.95 520.75 465.70 798.00

registered

vessel

engine

working

hours

Vessel fuel 205,046 186,918 154,767 201,365 150,558 241,997

consumption

in litres

Number of ---

22 28 15 32 79

issued

mandatory

misdemeanour

warrants

_______________________________________________

--- means that the information was not available

The activities conducted by the CGRC in the

period from 2015 to 2020 are divided into the

activities in the air, activities at sea and number of

issued mandatory misdemeanour warrants. The

activities in the air comprise the number of airplane

flights, airplane fuel consumption, number of flight

hours, whereas activities at sea include the number of

engaged vessels, number of nautical miles sailed by

vessels, number of registered vessel engine working

hours and vessel fuel consumption,

The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the

intensity and implementation of surveillance and

protection of national interests of the RC within the

jurisdiction of the CGRC was analysed by comparing

the selected activities the CGRC carried out in in 2020

with the activities conducted in the period from 2015

to 2019.

While analysing the activities the CGRC conducted

in the period from 2015 to 2020, we used graphs of the

observed time series, and a rate of change in relation

to the base period as a relative dynamics indicator,

and the year 2020 was selected as the base period

(2020=100).

Furthermore, by using the exponential smoothing

method we forecast values of the observed activities

carried out by the CGRC (except for the number of

issued mandatory misdemeanour warrants) for the

period from 2016 to 2021 and we calculated mean

absolute percentage errors (MAPE). The same method

was used to forecast values for the number of issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants for the period

from 2017 to 2021 since data for 2015 were

unavailable.

3 RESULTS

The graphs of the activities the CGRC carried out in

the air in the observed period, given in Figure 1, show

that all of the three observed activities carried out in

the air had similar dynamics in the observed period.

The number of airplane flights, airplane fuel

consumption and number of flight hours in 2015 and

2016 remained at approximately the same levels, in

2017 a significant growth of the observed activities in

the air was present, but in 2018 they decreased to the

levels similar to those from 2015 and 2016. In 2019 and

2020 the levels of the observed activities in the air

were approximately the same as those from 2018.

The rates of changes of the activities the CGRC

carried out in the air in relation to the base year of

2020 are shown in Table 2.

If we compare the activities the CGRC carried out

in the air in 2020 with the activities in the period from

2015 and 2019 on the grounds of the rates of changes

in relation to the base period (2020=100), it can be

concluded that in the pandemic 2020 the number of

airplane flights and the number of flight hours

remained at the same level as in 2019, whereas the

airplane fuel consumption in 2019 was lower by 5.07%

in comparison to 2020. If we compare these activities

from 2020 to those from 2018, in 2018 the number of

airplane flights was higher by 4%, the number of

consumed airplane fuel by 32.02% and the number of

flight hours by 16.97% in relation to 2020. In 2016 the

number of airplane flights was higher by 14%,

consumed fuel by 8.06% and the number of flight

hours by 3.39% in relation to 2020. The number of

airplane flights, consumed fuel and flight hours in

2015 was higher in the respect to the ones in 2020 by

6%, 3.9% and 16.08%, respectively.

(a)

(b)

(c)

Figure 1 Graphs of the activities the CGRC carried out in the

air from 2015 to 2020: (a) annual number of airplane flights;

(b) annual airplane fuel consumption; (3) annual number of

flight hours

Table 2. Rates of changes of the activities CGRC carried out

in the air (2020 = 100)

_______________________________________________

Rates of changes (2020 = 100)

_______________________________________________

Year Number of Airplane fuel Annual number

airplane flights consumption of flight hours

_______________________________________________

2015 8.00 3.90 16.08

2016 14.00 8.06 3.39

2017 118.00 251.54 150.21

2018 4.00 32.02 16.97

2019 0.00 -5.07 0.00

2020 0.00 0.00 0.00

_______________________________________________

The rates of changes of the activities the CGRC

carried out in the air in relation to the base year of

2020 show that the levels of the conducted activities in

the air in 2019 were roughly the same as those from

2020, but the level of the activities in the air in 2015,

2016 and 2018 was slightly higher than it was in 2020.

An exception was 2017 when the level of the activities

in the air was significantly higher than in 2020 (in

2017 the number of airplane flights increased by 118%,

consumed fuel by 251.54% and number of flight hours

by 150.21%).

Table 3 Forecasted values of the activities the CGRC carried

out in the air in the period from 2016 to 2021

_______________________________________________

Forecasted values (exponential smoothing method)

_______________________________________________

Year Number of Airplane fuel Number of

airplane flights consumption flight hours

(in thousands

of litres)

_______________________________________________

2016 54.00 16.35 82.07

2017 54.30 16.42 81.17

2018 59.77 20.31 90.75

2019 58.99 20.35 89.94

2020 58.09 19.81 88.02

2021 57.28 19.40 86.29

MAPE

0.21 0.28 0.26

_______________________________________________

MAPE - mean absolute percentage error

For the purpose of the further analysis, by using

the exponential smoothing method when the weight

factor is 0.1 the forecasted values of the activities the

CGRC carried out in the air were calculated for the

period from 2016 to 2021 and are given in Table 3.

The forecasted values of the activities carried out

in the air and the corresponding mean absolute

percentage error were calculated for several different

weight factors, and eventually the weight factor of 0.1

was selected in order to minimise the mean absolute

percentage error. The graphs of the actual and

forecasted values of the conducted activities in the air

are shown in Figure 2.

On the grounds of the graphs of the actual and

forecasted values the CGRC carried out in the air from

2015 to 2021, it is possible to conclude for every single

activity the CGRC carried out in the air from 2015 to

2021 (Figure 2) that the actual values in 2018, 2019 and

2020 were lower than the forecasted values, and the

only exception was the actual consumption of fuel

which was slightly higher in 2018 than the forecasted

consumption. In 2016 and 2017 the actual values of the

observed activities were higher than the forecasted

values, and the only exception was the actual number

of flight hours which was lower in 2016 than the

forecasted number.

The comparison of the forecasted values from

Table 3 to their actual values from Table 2 shows that

in 2020 the actual number of flights amounted to 50

which was by 13.93% lower than the forecasted value

which amounted to 58.09. Furthermore, the actual

airplane fuel consumption was 15,736 litres, which

was by 20.57% lower than the forecasted value of

19,810 litres, and the actual number of airplane flight

hours amounted to 70.70 and in comparison to the

forecasted number of flight hours which amounted to

88.02, it was lower by 19.68%.

(a)

(b)

(c)

Figure 2 The graphs of the actual and forecasted values of

the activities the CGRC conducted in the air from 2015 to

2021: (a) annual number of airplane flights; (b) annual

airplane fuel consumption; (3) annual number of flight

hours

By using the exponential smoothing method when

the weight factor is 0.1, the following values of the

activities the CGRC carried out in the air for 2021

were forecasted: 57.28 flights, 19,400 litres of

consumed fuel and 66.29 of flight hours.

Below are the results of the analysis of the

activities the CGRC carried out at sea in the period

from 2015 to 2021.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Figure 3 The graphs of the activities the CGRC conducted at

sea from 2015 to 2021: (a) number of engaged vessels; (b)

number of nautical miles sailed by vessels (c) number of

registered vessel engine working hours; (d) vessel fuel

consumption.

Figure 3 (a) clearly shows that the annual number

of the engaged vessels decreased in the period from

2015 to 2018 when it reached its lowest level, in 2019

there was a significant growth of the number of

engaged vessels, but in 2020 this number decreased to

a level slightly lower than it was in 2018. The annual

number of registered vessel engine working hours in

Figure 3 (c) shows a constant decline in the period

from 2015 to 2019, but in 2020 it was considerably

higher and reached the highest level in the observed

period. The graphs of the numbers of nautical miles

sailed and vessel fuel consumption given in Figure 3

(b) and (d) show that these activities carried out at sea

had somewhat similar dynamics in the observed

period. The number of nautical miles sailed

alternately increased and decreased in the period

from 2015 and 2019 and in 2019 they reached the

lowest level in the observed period. In 2020 there was

a significant increase of nautical miles sailed, which

was in fact their highest level in the observed period.

In the period from 2015 to 2017 the annual vessel fuel

consumption decreased, then it increased in 2018, and

in 2019 it decreased again and reached again its

lowest level in the observed period. In 2020 the

annual consumption of vessel fuel grew significantly

and reached its highest level in the observed period.

Table 4. Rates of changes of the activities the CGRC carried

out at sea (2020 =100)

_______________________________________________

Rates of changes (2020 =100)

_______________________________________________

Year Number Number of Number of Vessel

of nautical registered fuel

engage miles vessel consumption

vessels sailed by engine (in thousands

vessels working of litres)

hours

_______________________________________________

2015 14.77 -38.33 -24.37 -15.27

2016 5.68 -32.63 -25.76 -22.76

2017 4.55 -42.49 -33.72 -36.05

2018 -14.77 -34.33 -34.74 -16.79

2019 17.05 -49.93 -41.64 -37.79

2020 0 0 0 0

_______________________________________________

On the basis of the rates of changes of the activities

the CGRC carried out at sea in the period from 2015 to

2020 in relation to the base year of 2020, given in Table

4, it can be concluded that the number of nautical

miles sailed, number of registered vessel engine

working hours and vessel fuel consumption were at a

lower level in the period from 2015 to 2019 in

comparison to 2020, the year of the pandemic. The

number of nautical miles sailed by vessels was lower

than in 2020 by 38.33% in 2015, 32.36% in 2016, 42.49%

in 2017, 34.33% in 2018 and 49.93% in 2019, the

number of registered vessel engine working hours

was lower by 24.37% in 2015, 25.76% in 2016, 33.72%

in 2017 and 34.74% in 2018 and 41.46% in 2019,

whereas the vessel fuel consumption was lower by

15.27% in 2015, 22.76% in 2016, 36.05% in 2017,

16.79% in 2018 and 37.79% in 2019. The number of

engaged vessels in the period from 2015 to 2017 was

higher than in 2020, that is, by 14.77% in 2015, 5.68%

in 2016 and 4.55% in 2017. The number of engaged

vehicles was lower by 14.77% in 2018 and higher by

17.05% in 2019 in comparison to 2020.

Table 5. Forecasted values of the activities the CGRC carried

out at sea in the period from 2016 to 2021

_______________________________________________

Forecasted values (exponential smoothing method)

_______________________________________________

Year Number Number Number of Vessel fuel

of of nautical registered consumption

engaged miles vessel (in thousands

vessels sailed by engine of litres)

vessels (in working

thousands) hours

_______________________________________________

2016 101.00 5.34 603.56 205.05

2017 100.20 5.39 602.44 203.23

2018 99.38 5.35 595.09 198.39

2019 96.94 5.38 587.66 198.68

2020 97.55 5.28 575.46 193.87

2021 96.59 5.62 597.72 198.68

MAPE

0.13 0.17 0.17 0.19

_______________________________________________

MAPE - mean absolute percentage error

We have, in this case as well, by using the

exponential smoothing method with the weight factor

of 0.1, forecasted values of the activities carried out at

sea and corresponding mean absolute percentage

errors (MAPE). The forecasted values were calculated

for several different weight factors, and eventually the

weight factor of 0.1 was selected in order to minimise

the mean absolute percentage error. The forecasted

values of the activities the CGRC carried out at sea for

the period from 2016 and 2021 are given in Table 5,

and the graphs of the actual and forecasted values are

shown in Figure 4.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Figure 4 The graphs of the actual and forecasted values of

the activities the CGRC conducted at sea from 2015 to 2021:

(a) number of engaged vessels; (b) number of nautical miles

sailed by vessels (c) number of registered vessel engine

working hours; (d) vessel fuel consumption.

The graphs of the actual and forecasted values of

the number of engaged vessels show that in the period

from 2016 to 2018 and in 2020 the forecasted values

were higher than the actual values, and the only

exception was in 2019 when the situation was

reversed. The forecasted values of the number of

nautical miles sailed by vessels, Figure 4 (b), were

lower of the actual values in 2016, 2018 and 2020, but

in 2017 and 2019 they were higher. When it comes to

the number of registered vessel engine working hours,

the forecasted value for 2020 was lower than the

actual one, whereas in all the remaining years of the

observed period the level of the forecasted values was

higher than the level of the actual ones, which can be

seen in Figure 4(c). Figure 4(d) clearly shows that the

forecasted values of the vessel fuel consumption were

higher than the actual ones in 2016, 2017 and 2019,

and lower in 2018 and 2020.

If we compare the forecasted values of the

activities carried out at sea for 2020 (Table 5) with

their actual values (Table 1), it can be seen that in 2020

the actual number amounting to 88 engaged vessel

was by 9.78% lower than the forecasted one which

amounted to 97.55. As regards the three other

activities carried out at sea in 2020 results are as

follows: the actual distance sailed by vessels was 8,661

nautical miles, which was by 64.03% longer than the

forecasted value of 5,280 nautical miles. The actual

number of registered vessel engine working hours

amounted to 798 and was by 38.67% higher than the

forecasted number of registered vessel engine

working hours which amounted to 575.46. The actual

vessel fuel consumption was 241,997 litres which was

in comparison to the forecasted consumption of

193,870 litres higher by 24.82%.

The same as in case of the activities carried out in

the air, by using the exponential smoothing method

with the weight factor of 0.1, the following values of

the activities carried out at sea were forecasted: 96.59

engaged vessels, 5.62 thousand nautical miles sailed,

599.72 registered vessel engine working hours and

198,680 litres of consumed vessel fuel.

(a)

(b)

Figure 5 The graphs of the number of issued mandatory

misdemeanour warrants: (a) annual number of issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants from 2016 to 2020; (b)

actual and forecasted number of issued mandatory

misdemeanour warrants from 2016 to 2021.

The last activity carried out by the CGRC that we

will analyse in this paper is the number of issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants in the period

from 2016 to 2020.

The number of issued mandatory misdemeanour

warrants, shown in Table 5 (a), first increased than

decreased and in the end it increased again. In 2020

there was a significant growth of issued mandatory

misdemeanour warrants. The lowest level of the

annual number of issued mandatory misdemeanour

warrants was in 2018, whereas the highest one was in

2020.

The graph of the actual and forecasted values of

the number of issued mandatory misdemeanour

warrants in Figure 5 (b) shows that the forecasted

values were lower than the actual values in 2017, 2019

and 2020, but in 2018 the forecasted value was higher

than the actual one.

The rates of changes of the number of issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants in relation to the

base year of 2020 (2020 = 100), given in Table 6, show

that the number of issued mandatory misdemeanour

warrants was by 72.15% lower in 2016, 64.56% in 2017,

81.01% in 2018 and 59.49% in 2019.

Table 6 Rates of changes of the activities CGRC carried out

in the air (2020 = 100)

_______________________________________________

Year Rates of changes of the number of issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants (2020 = 100)

_______________________________________________

2016 -72.15

2017 -64.56

2018 -81.01

2019 -59.49

2020 0

_______________________________________________

By using the exponential smoothing method when

the weight factor is 0.1, the values of the numbers of

issued mandatory misdemeanour warrants for the

period from 2016 to 2021 were also forecasted and the

mean absolute percentage error was calculated (Table

7).

The same as for other activities carried out by the

CGRC, the forecasted values were calculated for

several different weight factors, and eventually the

weight factor of 0.1 was selected in order to minimise

the mean absolute percentage error.

Table 7. The forecasted values of the number of issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants in the period from 2016

to 2021

_______________________________________________

Year forecasted values of the number of issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants

_______________________________________________

2017 22.00

2018 22.60

2019 21.84

2020 22.86

2021 28.47

MAPE

0.44

_______________________________________________

MAPE - mean absolute percentage error

By comparing the forecasted values of the number

of issued mandatory misdemeanour warrants in 2020,

which amounted to 79 (Table 1) with the forecasted

number of issued 22.86 mandatory misdemeanour

warrants (Table 7), it can be seen that the actual value

was higher than the forecasted one by 245.58%.

The forecasted value of the number of issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants was, by using the

exponential smoothing method when the weight

factor is 0.1, 28.47 for the year 2021.

4 CONCLUSION

The results of the conducted analysis show that the

activities the CGRC carried out in the air in 2020, the

year of pandemic, were at a lower level than in the

period from 2015 to 2018. However, if the level of

these activities is compared to those from 2019, which

preceded the pandemic, it is noticeable that the

number of airplane flights and number of flight hours

were at the same level, whereas the airplane fuel

consumption in 2020 was at somewhat higher level

than in 2019. As regards the activities the CGRC

conducted at sea in the period from 2015 to 2020, the

results show that in the period from 2015 to 2020 the

number of nautical miles sailed, number of registered

vessel engine working hours and vessel fuel

consumption reached their peak in 2020, but the

number of engaged vessels in 2020 was lower than in

2019. The number mandatory misdemeanour

warrants the CGRC issued in the period from 2015 to

2020 was at the highest level in the pandemic times of

2020.

In 2020, the forecasted values of the activities the

CGRC carried out in the air had a slightly higher

value than the actual values, whereas the forecasted

values for 2021were somewhat higher than the actual

values in 2020. When the activities the CGRC

conducted at sea are concerned, the forecasted values

of the number of nautical miles sailed by vessels,

number of registered vessel engine working hours

and vessel fuel consumption had a lower level than

the actual ones, and the forecasted number of engaged

vessels in was higher than the actual value. The

forecasted values of the number of nautical miles

sailed by vessels, number of registered vessel engine

working hours and vessel fuel consumption for 2021

were significantly lower than the actual values for

2020, but in case of engaged vessels the forecasted

value for 2021 was higher than the actual values in

2020. Similarly to most of the activities carried out at

sea, the forecasted number of issued mandatory

misdemeanour warrants for 2020 was also

significantly lower than the actual number in 2020,

and the forecasted number for 2021 was quite lower

than the actual number in 2020.

Therefore, it is quite safe to say that, despite the

COVID-19 pandemic, the CGRC continues to carry

out not only all the planned activities but also some

extraordinary ones within the framework of the

Central Coordinating Committee for Surveillance and

Protection of the Sea, and that the intensity of

surveillance was not reduced, but on the contrary, the

number of performed inspections and issued

mandatory misdemeanour warrants in 2020 was

significantly higher in comparison to the previous

years analysed in this paper.

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