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1 INTRODUCTION
Seasonality is one of the challenges facing the cruise
industry. There are numerous articles that use this
term and exploit the consequences of this
phenomenon [4, 5, 10, 19], but only few authors like
Esteve-Perez et al. and Pavlić [8, 9, 15] analyse and
determine the behaviour of the pattern. The purpose
of this paper is to eliminate this problem and add
more information and descriptions to the
determination of the seasonal pattern, especially in
Adriatic Sea, to add more data to previous researches
[4, 16, 21]. This research only analyses the east coast of
the Adriatic Sea, as a small part of the Mediterranean
Sea.
When describing seasonal patterns in the
Mediterranean Sea, most researchers [13] use data
from the MedCruise Association [1, 2]. This is an
association of Mediterranean Cruise Ports, which
serves to promote the cruise industry and unites ports
and ship owners. Seasonal patterns in the Med are
described in the next Chapter, presenting the data
from MedCruise Association [1, 2] as well as from
research performed by Esteve-Perez et al [8].
Following chapters analyse various aspects of the
Adriatic East Coast seasonal pattern, ending with
some new and until now unpublished findings which
are presented in the Chapter 6 and in the Conclusion.
Findings presented in the article may help
researchers of the cruise industry pollution impact or
crowding effect to better appraise the seasonality
effect in this area. Noted differences from
Mediterranean pattern may help in some future
calculations and researches.
2 SEASONAL PATTERN IN THE
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
Figure 1 describes the seasonal pattern indicated in
the percentage of number of arrivals at the port per
month in 2017 and 2018.
Determination of the Cruise Vessels Seasonal Pattern
in Eastern Adriatic
T. Stanivuk, A. Mišura, L. Stazić & I. Štolfa
1
University of Split, Split, Croatia
ABSTRACT: The notion of a seasonal pattern of cruise ships has been used frequently, but very few authors
have analysed all the features of this pattern. This article adds some new insights on this topic by analysing
cruise ship activity in the three largest ports on the east coast of Adriatic Sea in 2017 and 2018. The article
presents an analysis of cruise ship arrivals at the ports and compares the analysis to the established pattern in
the Mediterranean, revealing the nature of the seasonal pattern for the ports analysed. In addition, two further
analyses were carried out, firstly the analysis of ship size, which determines new characteristics of the seasonal
pattern. The second additional analysis considered the duration of ship visit during different times of the year
and determined another pattern characteristic.
http://www.transnav.eu
the International Journal
on Marine Navigation
and Safety of Sea Transportation
Volume 15
Number 4
December 2021
DOI: 10.12716/1001.15.04.04
744
Figure 1. Seasonal pattern of cruise ships on the
Mediterranean in 2017 and 2018 [16]
*Values are in the percentage of the average yearly number
of ship port calls
Figure 1 also shows that the largest proportion of
cruise ship port calls is in October (14.75% of all calls
or 176.85% of the average) with 1789 calls, while the
smallest proportion of port calls was recorded in
February (1.95% of all calls or 23.43% of the average)
with 237 calls. The same pattern was seen from 2014
to 2018, with October hosting around 14% of total
cruise ship calls. In 2016, October was the dominant
month, accounting for 14.4% of all calls, while this
proportion was 14.27% in 2018 [1, 2]. It can also be
seen that most of the ship calls occur in a period from
April to October. During this period, the proportion
per month varies between 10 and 15% of the total
calls. On the other hand, the lowest arrival rate was
recorded in the period from November to March, with
monthly shares ranging from 1.5 to 7%. In 2017, the
overall percentage from April to October was 82.26%,
while from November to March it was 17.74%. The
behaviour for 2018 follows the same pattern as for
2017, which can be seen in Figure 1.
Esteve-Perez et al [8] described two different
seasonal patterns in the Mediterranean (Figure 2), the
first with a peak in July/August and with duration
from April to October and the second pattern with
two peaks in April and October and with duration
from March to November.
Analysis of the ports of Split and Dubrovnik in the
Republic of Croatia and the port of Kotor in
Montenegro produced the results that determine the
pattern of behaviour and the laws that apply on our
side of the Adriatic. These three ports host the most
cruise ships during the year in the whole East Adriatic
[4, 14, 21]. Data from Port Authorities [6, 11, 17] were
used for the study. In order to exclude smaller vessels
and yachts, vessels smaller than 500 GRT were
excluded from the analysis. In addition to the
numbers of arrivals at these ports, the study also
included an analysis of the size of the cruise ships and
an analysis of the length of stay in port. This analytical
approach resulted in some new findings that were
noticed, explained and published for the first time.
Figure 2. Two different types of seasonal pattern in the
Mediterranean [8]
*Values are in the percentage of the average yearly number
of ship port calls
3 ADRIATIC EAST COAST PORTS ARRIVALS
Esteve-Perez et al [8] analysed the ports of Dubrovnik
and Kotor as part of the Adriatic cruise ports. In the
article, these ports were referred to as ports with
seasonal pattern I. Since the port of Split belongs to
the same area and operates under similar conditions,
it is expected that the port has the same pattern.
The determination of the pattern for the ports East
Adriatic is carried out using the data obtained from
the port authorities in the three largest passenger
ports on the eastern Adriatic coast: Split, Dubrovnik
and Kotor. Using the obtained data, Table 1 was
prepared showing port traffic by month for 2017 and
2018.
Figure 3. Eastern Adriatic coast Cruise ships port calls
*Values are in the percentage of the average yearly number
of ship port calls
Aggregate data for the East Coast of the Adriatic
Sea in the form of a graph are visually represented in
Figure 3. In 2017, the highest number of arrivals was
recorded in September with 189 vessels, representing
15.75% of all annual arrivals, while the month with
745
the lowest arrivals was January with only 11 arrivals
or 0.92% of annual arrivals. A similar pattern was
recorded in 2018 when the dominant month was
August with 182 vessel arrivals, representing 15.75%
of annual arrivals, and the month with the fewest
arrivals was January with 11 arrivals, representing
0.95% of annual arrivals.
3.1 Adriatic East Coast Ports seasonal behaviour
determination
Comparing Figures 2 and 3 it is evident that the
pattern applicable to the East Coast of the Adriatic Sea
corresponds to the pattern I described on Figure 2, as
given by Esteve-Perez et al [8] in their paper.
Comparing Figures 1 and 3 it can be seen that on the
East Coast of the Adriatic Sea the season also starts in
April, although with much less intensity than in the
rest of the Mediterranean (almost 50% less). The
intensity of the pattern during the summer months is
more pronounced (up to 30% more) than in the
Mediterranean. The timing of the seasonal peak also
differs from the Mediterranean, on East Coast of
Adriatic Sea the peak occurs in August/September,
while in the Mediterranean the peak is in October. The
end of the season also has some discrepancies, on the
East Coast of the Adriatic Sea it ends in October,
while in the Mediterranean there is still some activity
in November (although to a lesser extent). The
similarity of the charts (Figure 1 and 3) is that both
have more than 80% of vessel visits during the season
and a very inactive winter season.
According to the facts listed, the seasonal pattern
in the East Coast of the Adriatic Sea can be
summarized:
− It starts slowly in April, at the end of the month,
− It is very intense during the summer,
− It peaks in August/September,
− It ends at the end of October.
4 ADDITIONAL SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS
The study focuses on the additional aspects of the
cruise trade. These aspects are:
− Distribution of ship size over the year,
− Length of stay in port over the year,
− These two parameters will help to determine the
seasonal pattern more precisely.
4.1 Distribution of vessel size
This section presents the analysis of cruise ship size in
2017 and 2018 in the East Coast of Adriatic Sea, as
shown in Figure 4. In 2017 the average size of cruise
ships in the ports of the East Coast of Adriatic Sea was
166.22 [m], while in 2018 the average size was 178.66
[m].
Figure 4. Eastern Adriatic coast Cruise ships average size
From Figure 4 it is evident that the average size is
considerably larger during the summer season than
during the winter. It is noteworthy that longer cruise
ships arrive during the period from April to
November than during the period from December to
March, when the average ship size is much smaller.
Comparing this pattern (Figure 4) with the pattern
shown in Figure 3, it is clear that the distribution of
cruise ship size during the year does not fully match
the seasonal pattern of cruise ship arrivals in the East
Coast of the Adriatic Sea. It is noticeable that the
largest cruise ships arrive in April, while in Figure 3
the full season starts at the end of the month.
Although according to Figure 3 the seasonal pattern
ends in October, this pattern shows a decrease in size
one month later.
Table 1. Cruise ships port calls in Eastern Adriatic Ports during 2017/2018
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Cruise ships port calls - Eastern Adriatic 2017/2018
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2017
Cruise Calls Split 2 4 7 11 28 26 27 31 33 40 13 10
Cruise Calls Split (%) 0.86 1.72 3.02 4.74 12.07 11.21 11.64 13.36 14.22 17.24 5.60 4.31
Cruise Calls Dubrovnik 5 4 10 33 63 72 79 88 85 76 17 6
Cruise Calls Dubrovnik (%) 0.93 0.74 1.86 6.13 11.71 13.38 14.68 16.36 15.80 14.13 3.16 1.12
Cruise Calls Kotor 4 4 11 23 57 53 59 62 71 55 21 10
Cruise Calls Kotor (%) 0.93 0.93 2.56 5.35 13.26 12.33 13.72 14.42 16.51 12.79 4.88 2.33
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
2018
Cruise Calls Split 4 5 10 8 34 36 29 38 34 25 18 9
Cruise Calls Split (%) 1.60 2.00 4.00 3.20 13.60 14.40 11.60 15.20 13.60 10.00 7.20 3.60
Cruise Calls Dubrovnik 3 5 11 25 67 78 78 87 78 71 19 8
Cruise Calls Dubrovnik (%) 0.57 0.94 2.08 4.72 12.64 14.72 14.72 16.42 14.72 13.40 3.58 1.51
Cruise Calls Kotor 4 5 11 14 43 48 51 57 49 55 26 12
Cruise Calls Kotor (%) 1.07 1.33 2.93 3.73 11.47 12.80 13.60 15.20 13.07 14.67 6.93 3.20
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
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It can be concluded that in the period from April to
November, cruise ships are on average 20% larger
than the annual average size. On the other hand, from
December to March, the size is about 40% smaller than
the annual average size.
According to the above facts, the size-related
addition to the seasonal pattern in the East Coast of
the Adriatic Sea can be summarized:
− Larger vessels begin arriving in April,
− Size decline begins in December,
− The average size of cruise ships is almost constant
during the season,
− During the winter the average size of vessels is
significantly smaller, 40% less than the annual
average size,
− This pattern differs from the seasonal pattern of
ship arrivals in timing (starts one month earlier.
and ends one month later).
4.2 Periods of stay in port
The average stay in port of cruise ships in analysed
ports of Eastern Adriatic in 2017 and 2018 is shown in
Figure 5. In 2017, the average time spent by cruise
ships in the port of Eastern Adriatic was 18.54 hours,
while in 2018 this time was 17.9 hours.
Figure 5. Eastern Adriatic coast Cruise ships average stay in
port
Figure 5 shows that cruise ships spend
significantly less time in port during the seasonal
period, from May to October than during the rest of
the year. The shortest stay in port is recorded in
October, while they spend the most time in port in
January/February. Comparing this pattern (Figure 5)
with the seasonal pattern shown in Figure 3, it is clear
that the distribution of ship stays in port is inversely
proportional to the pattern of seasonal behaviour of
cruise ships. During the period from May to October,
the average ship stay in port is between 11 and 15
hours, while during the rest of the year it is
significantly longer. Therefore, it can be concluded
that during the period from May to October, cruise
ships stay in port for about 27% less time than the
annual average time of the ship in port, while during
the period from November to April, they stay for
about 27% more time.
According to the above facts, the seasonal pattern
of cruise ships in analysed ports of Eastern Adriatic
can be summarized in terms of stay time:
− The average annual ship stay time in port is about
18 hours,
− The average length of stay of the ship in the port is
almost constant during the seasonal period and is
about 27% lower than the annual average length of
stay in the port,
− During the period from November to April (off-
season), vessels spend about 27% more time in port
than the annual average,
− The pattern of ship stays in port is inversely
proportional to the pattern of seasonal behaviour
of cruise ship arrivals.
Why do ships stay longer in port longer during the
off-season?
This fact surprised a whole group of researchers
and it was further investigated. In the beginning, there
was the question of port fees [20]. By re-examining all
three Port Authorities [7, 12, 18], it was found that the
prices are the same throughout the year. The next
attempt was to ask information directly from the
shipping companies involved to find the reason.
When they provided information, the reason was
more than obvious. The off- season is mostly during
winter months. Only smaller ships operate in the area
during this time. Smaller ships are more susceptible to
bad weather, which is more common during the
winter season, as can be seen in Figure 6 [3].
Figure 6. Southern Adriatic weather conditions during the
year [3]
Cavaleri et al. published the research [3]
presenting that during the winter there are up to 10
times more storms and stormy weather then during
the summer season (Figure 3). Smaller vessels (the
size of cruise vessels decrease in winter season) in a
weather like that must stay in port causing increase of
the stay in port value in winter months.
747
5 DESCRIPTION OF EASTERN ADRIATIC CRUISE
SHIP PATTERN
From the analysis presented in the article, a
comprehensive and detailed Cruise ships seasonal
pattern for East Adriatic Coast can be described:
− The pattern of number of port calls presented on
Figure 3 belongs to Mediterranean pattern I [8], as
presented on Figures 1 and 2, with minor shape
deviations
− The size-related addition (Figure 4):
− Larger vessels begin arriving in April,
− Size decline begins in December,
− The average size of cruise ships is almost
constant during the season,
− Only smaller ships are in the area during the
winter,
− This pattern differs from the seasonal pattern of
ship arrivals in timing (starts one month earlier.
and ends one month later).
− In terms of vessel arrivals (Figure 3):
− It starts slowly in April, at the end of the
month,
− It is very intense during the summer,
− It peaks in August/September,
− It ends at the end of October.
− Concerning the size of ships (Figure 4):
− Larger ships begin arriving in April,
− Decrease in size begins in December,
− Average size of cruise ships is nearly constant
throughout the season,
− Only smaller ships are in the area during the
winter,
− This pattern differs from the seasonal pattern
[8, 9] of ship arrivals in timing (begins one
month earlier).
− Regarding vessel stay in port (Figure 5):
− The average annual length of stay of vessels in
port is approximately 18 hours,
− The average length of stay of vessels in port is
almost constant during the season and is
approximately 27% lower than the average
annual length of stay in port,
− During the period from November to April
(off- season), vessels spend approximately 27%
more time in port than the annual average,
− The pattern of vessel stay in port is inversely
proportional to the pattern of seasonal
behaviour of cruise ship arrivals.
6 FURTHER RESEARCH
During the research for this article, several questions
arose that are still unanswered and remain for new
research in this area. These questions are:
− How long does the cruise ship stay in port?
− Does that value change over the course of the year?
− Is the duration related to the number of passengers
and the size of the ship?
− What influences the total length of stay in port?
− Is the seasonal pattern equally represented for all
vessel sizes?
These answers will hopefully be provided soon by
the same research team.
7 CONCLUSION
The discussion, analysis and results presented in the
article are clearly showing that the main aspect of the
seasonal pattern, i. e. number of port calls of cruise
vessels on the East Coast of the Adriatic Sea
corresponds to the seasonal pattern I in the
Mediterranean, presented on the Figures 2 and 3.
Graph of the number of port calls of cruise vessels on
the East Coast of the Adriatic Sea in shape
corresponds with the shape and design of the
Mediterranean pattern, with smaller differences in
height and width of the curves.
The analysis presents two additional aspects of the
Cruise ships seasonal pattern for East Adriatic Coast.
Those aspects, analysis of the seasonal size of ships in
port and seasonal changes of the length of stay of
vessels in port create second contribution of this
research, both seasonal patterns were not noted or
analyzed before. Both aspects are showing clear
seasonal patterns with two different seasonal
behaviors. The pattern of the ship size also
corresponds with seasonal pattern I in the
Mediterranean like the number of port calls. The
pattern of the stay in port on the other side is
inversely proportional to the same pattern. Both of
these analyses, according to the knowledge of authors,
are considered for the first time and are bringing new
light on the seasonal pattern in the Mediterranean.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Part of the research for this article was performed using the
equipment obtained through the Project named: “Functional
integration of the University of Split, PMF-ST, PFST and
KTF-ST through development of scientific and research
infrastructure in Three faculties building’’, contract number
KK.01.1.1.02.0018.
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