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Possible lines of research that we envision for the
further development of the method are an improved
selection of search directions and step sizes when
updating model parameters from gradients.
As we saw above the algorithm somewhat suffers
from diminishing gradients along the path especially
when avoiding a crossing obstacle. Necessary changes
in the controlling inputs only slowly propagate from
the end of the trajectory to the early phases. We want
to investigate how this can be overcome by selecting a
sufficient initial trajectory.
Additionally, we want to increase the speed of
convergence in general. To accomplish this, we will
have a look at different optimizations algorithm like
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) [1, 5, 9] and Adam
(using adaptive moment estimation) [6].
For the purpose of evaluating and validating our
autonomous movement planning algorithm, it should
be connected to a ship handling simulator, that uses
its own physical model and includes process and
measurement noise. While directing the ship towards
its goal, the planning algorithm would then be run
iteratively to re-plan future movements and
controlling inputs from the current state (which
advances continuously), while using a method to
repeatedly estimate the vessels state and parameters.
The overall program, incorporating our
autonomous movement planning, will have to
repeatedly estimate position, speed, heading and turn
rate, while the algorithms parameters to be estimated
include the vessel's weight (and distribution),
draught, momentum of inertia as well as external
influences like water currents.
Of course, the ship will need updated estimates for
the position, speed and heading of other vessels to
take their future trajectories into account. This could
be improved upon by having multiple ships interact
with each other cooperatively - for example by using
planning algorithms that inform each other about
their planned trajectory and finding optimal
trajectories for all ships involved.
When optimising the motion behaviour of a single
ship, the local environment, the specific dynamic
motion model und the engine states can be considered
to find an optimal path or trajectory. The COLREGs
(Collision avoidance regulations) have to be part of
the applied algorithms to integrate an automatically
controlled vehicle into the local traffic situation with a
mixture from surface vehicles with different
automation level and degree of manoeuvrability.
The original manoeuvre trajectory has to be
changed and optimised according the current
situation. In consequence, the resulting calculated
manoeuvre can be more a stopgap than an
energetically optimal solution with minimal
consumption and emission. Therefore, cooperative
approaches should be investigated that optimise the
cooperative motion behaviour of several ships or a
fleet to achieve the best result for this group of ships.
Finally, within the framework of uncertainty
quantification one could use the distribution in
uncertain parameters, for example: non-linearities in
the ship systems response, (future) trajectories of
other vessels, to get a risk assessment for possible
movement plans select an appropriate course of
action.
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