1002
S. 2015). Therefore, it is a state of the system related to
the accident-free passage of the ship by sea. The basic
condition for navigation on sea waterways is the
safety of navigation, understood as the safety of the
ship and its surroundings during maneuvers in these
waters in terms of the possibility of a navigational
accident (an undesirable event causing damage and
loss (Oltedal, H. A. (Ed.), Lutzhoft, M. (Ed.), 2018)
Factors that may cause accidents on waterways are
their parameters (length, width, depth, clearance
under bridge structures) and the presence of hydro
technical structures on them, as they constitute a
potential source of danger in the event of their
malfunction or improper marking (Jerzyło P.,
Wawrzyńska A. 2018). Another factor that has a
significant impact on the safety of navigation are the
prevailing hydro meteorological conditions as well as
the intensity and intensity of traffic in a given place
and time. The basic hydro meteorological conditions
include: water level, wind, currents, waves,
temperature and precipitation. They cause
unfavorable phenomena for shipping, which not only
may limit navigation and shorten the shipping
season, but may also contribute to the initiation of
adverse events.
Based on this, it can be concluded that in order to
ensure safe navigation by reducing the risk of vessel
traffic on waterways, methods of safety and
navigation risk assessment of should be used.
3 METHODOLOGY OF NAVIGATIONAL SAFETY
ASSESSMENT FOR VARIOUS VARIANTS OF
THE WATERWAY
In the process of maritime transport management,
one of the main tasks within which many decision-
making problems arise is its improvement through
specific projects (Ministerstwo Transportu,
Budownictwa I Gospodarki Morskiej 2013, Żak J.
2015). The selection of the proposed variants of
waterways, or their ordering from the most desirable
to the less important, requires an appropriate analysis
using the selected methodology providing the
appropriate tools (methods). The methodology of the
analysis and the criteria related to it are strictly
dependent on whether the analysis concerns the
assessment of the maritime transport system in the
present state or a project improving this system.
Several postulates have been formulated to
propose a new general approach to the assessment of
waterway projects at the design stage. The most
important of them include:
− the possibility of a comprehensive assessment of
variants / projects of various nature,
− the possibility of assessing variants / projects
before their implementation, and above all, as a
support for the discussion preceding the approval
of the investor's budget,
− possibility of evaluating a large number of
variants / projects of different nature
− the possibility of active participation of the
decision-maker / interveners in the decision-
making process,
− the possibility of using modern and currently
available computational methods, tools and
computer techniques.
The desired effect of this approach is the list which
presents the considered projects in a ranking, from
the project that has the best impact (has the highest
usability) for navigational safety, to the project that
has the lowest impact on achieving the goal.
The assessment of projects related to the design of
variants of waterways is particularly difficult. The
cause of the difficulties of this issue is due to in
properly defined criteria, for each of the proposed
elements of variants assessed quantitatively or
qualitatively. As a rule, different types of assessment
criteria are used to evaluate different types of
waterways, which results primarily from their
purpose and nature.
The basic measure of assessing variants of design
solutions is the level of meeting the criteria specified
by the decision-maker. In this study, the concept of
decision maker means the investor who decides about
the location of the investment and the final form of
the elements of the waterway, characterized by
specific technical and operational features. Despite
the fact that some of these criteria are difficult to
determine objectively (quantitatively), there is a need
to find a synthetic measure of the technical and utility
values of the facility. The right selection of criteria is
as important as the correct assessment of the level of
their fulfillment, both for the aforementioned
investor, client and a potential user of the waterway.
The decision-makers approach is strongly
influenced by the opinions and assessments of
experts, including in particular maritime traffic
engineers and experienced navigators. Such expert
assessments are often the subject of navigational
analyzes commissioned by the investor. Experts are
expected to make assessments consistent with the
current level of knowledge, reliable, objective and
taking into account the specificity of a given decision-
making situation. However, it is difficult to
unequivocally define individual preferences, value
system and expert motives.
The expert's preferences are largely dependent
also on the point of view of the decision-maker for
whom the analysis is prepared. Other preferences in
terms of the technical and operational conditions of
the facility will be accepted by the investor, client or
user of the waterway.
In the proposed method, the following sequence
of actions was adopted:
− establishing the criteria for evaluating variants,
− selection of a method for comparing and
prioritizing decision variants,
− carrying out computational (simulation) tests,
− analysis of the obtained results,
− determining the ranking of variants,
− development of final conclusions.
The issue of setting criteria is a very specific and
individual issue. It is concentrated in the
questionnaire prepared by the author. Ultimately, the
proposed methodology should allow for quick
determination of the order of the various variants of
the designed waterway under consideration. The